Volkanovski vs Lopes Odds & Picks: UFC 325

Alexander Volkanovski is a -166 favorite, and Diego Lopes enters as a +130 underdog ahead of their five-round featherweight championship rematch at UFC 325 in Sydney, Australia, on February 1.

Volkanovski brings elite footwork, championship experience, and proven round-winning pace, while Lopes returns with dangerous power, momentum, and the confidence of having dropped Volk in their first meeting.

Volkanovski vs Lopes Betting Odds

Volkanovski vs Lopes Odds
Fighter	Odds
Alexander Volkanovski	-166
Diego Lopes	+130

Volkanovski vs Lopes Betting Trends

Volkanovski out-landed Lopes 158-63 in significant strikes over five rounds in their first fight at UFC 314. This was considered a very swift, arguably dominant performance by Volk, leading to very similar odds in the rematch.
Lopes has finished four of his last five opponents, with all four coming inside two rounds. His lone loss in that stretch is the competitive decision to Volkanovski.
Their first fight featured a Lopes knockdown, but Volkanovski still won at least three rounds clearly and closed strongest in round 5. Volkanovski was a -114 favorite in the first fight, with Lopes at +118.

Volkanovski vs Lopes Prediction

This rematch hinges on whether Lopes can turn moments into rounds. In their first meeting, Lopes hurt Volk badly in round 2, but Volkanovski steadily banked the majority of minutes with sharper entries, a punishing jab, and clean footwork that forced Lopes to chase. Unless Lopes can meaningfully increase his sustained output, the minute-winning dynamic still favors the champion.

Lopes’ finishing threat remains the great equalizer. His boxing is fast, heavy, and unpredictable, and he has the durability to walk through damage and force chaotic exchanges. But aside from the knockdown, his offense came in sporadic bursts, while Volkanovski consistently found counters, exits, and range control to keep the fight paced on his terms.

The path to victory for Lopes is a knockout or repeated knockdowns — an outcome that is absolutely live given Volkanovski’s age and recent damage. But if this rematch resembles the flow of the first bout, Volkanovski’s volume, defense, and tactical discipline still give him the clearer and more reliable road across 25 minutes.

The odds reflect this dynamic well. At -166, Volkanovski is being priced as the superior minute-winner with proven success over the same opponent. Lopes at +130 carries real upset potential through power, but requires high-impact moments to overcome Volk’s control of range and rhythm.