Canelo Alvarez vs Terence Crawford Odds & Picks

Canelo Alvarez will defend his undisputed super middleweight titles against Terence Crawford on September 13 in Las Vegas.

Canelo is now a -180 favorite vs Crawford (+140 underdog) at Sportsbook, largely because Crawford must jump two full weight classes to meet him at 168 pounds. It's worth noting action is still coming in on Crawford, keeping this line tight as fight week heats up.

The fight will be broadcast globally on Netflix.

Alvarez vs Crawford Odds

Fighter	Odds
Canelo Alvarez	-180
Terence Crawford	+140

Using our odds calculator, Alvarez's -180 odds imply a 64.3% chance of victory, while Crawford's +140 line suggests a 41.7% chance. A $100 bet on Alvarez would pay out $155.56, while the same $100 bet on Crawford would return $240.

How To Bet Canelo

While Crawford might outbox Canelo in stretches, he doesn't have the durability or power to secure a clear victory, despite what some boxing purists believe. Canelo's explosiveness, raw strength, and power edge could lead to a knockout. He also has a sturdy track record against southpaws lately, besting John Ryder by decision in 2023 and Billy Joe Saunders by TKO in 2021.

With an all-time great chin and elite defensive instincts, Canelo has consistently slipped or rolled through big shots since the GGG trilogy, leaving Crawford with little to no chance of landing a fight-ending blow. And this fight changes (big time) if Crawford doesn't have the nuclear option.

Canelo's defense is pivotal, but so is his adaptability. Alvarez can win in so many different ways, and he should be extra confident when he's less concerned about a fight-ending blow. Anyone who's watched a Canelo Alvarez fight knows his mastery in the pocket, using vicious bodywork to either end the fight or lower his opponent's guard for headshots. Add a little oomph to each shot, and I predict Canelo by KO.

How to Bet Crawford

There is a strong case to be made that Crawford is the most skilled fighter in boxing today. His destruction of Spence was a masterclass in precision and timing, with Crawford landing 50 percent of his punches and forcing a ninth-round stoppage. That win cemented him as a two-weight undisputed champion and the pound-for-pound king.

Now the challenge is different. Crawford is moving up to super middleweight, where size and strength favor Alvarez. Few fighters succeed when jumping two weight divisions, and at 37 years old, Crawford's durability will be tested against Alvarez's power. Trainer Regis Prograis put it bluntly: "They make weight classes for a reason."

Crawford has been sparring with bigger opponents to prepare, even those weighing nearly 200 pounds, but there are doubts that he can absorb Alvarez's pressure. Many believe Alvarez could force a stoppage by the middle rounds. I'm inclined to agree. The threat is there.

If you believe in Crawford, though, betting him as the underdog or by decision offers solid value.

Alvarez vs Crawford Pick

Bet on Alvarez by KO. His power, experience at super middleweight, and ability to adapt in the ring make him the likeliest winner, especially against a slimmer opponent like Crawford.