If you’re not familiar with who Elon Musk is, you may be living under a rock. Musk is a very public figure as the CEO of the electric car company Tesla, CEO and founder of SpaceX, founder of The Boring Company creating tunnels in Los Angeles and co-founder of Neuralink. All of the entrepreneurial work has led to Musk becoming the richest man in the world, valued at over $300 billion.

Of course, having so much power and wealth will draw attention to the face of it all both domestically and internationally. Time magazine’s “Person of the Year” may need to make a formal apology to China for the use of his SpaceX satellites.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released odds on whether Elon Musk will apologize to China, with the “No” option listed as the favorite at -600 and the “Yes” set as the +350 underdog option.

Elon Musk Unlikely To Apologize To China, According To Odds

Odds Of Elon Musk Apologizing To China
Option Odds
Yes +350
No -600

Odds as of January 10 at Bovada

To explain the Musk apology odds further, if you were looking to profit $100 on the Yes option, you must bet $600, whereas a $100 winning bet on the No option would net you $350. Furthermore, our sports betting calculator tells us that the -600 odds translate to an implied win probability of 85.71 percent and the +350 betting line represents an implied win probability of 22.22 percent.

You can see more interesting betting markets at Bovada.

Why Is China Angry At SpaceX & Musk?

One of the big SpaceX projects underway is called Starlink – to have high-speed internet all around the globe. Currently, there are many areas that are still using dial-up internet (don’t pick up the phone while trying to read this article)!

To make this project a reality, SpaceX is constantly launching satellites into space, with upwards of 40,000 potentially needed to achieve the goal of global high-speed internet.

The problem with that number of satellites is the danger posed to space stations such as China’s Tiangong which, according to Chinese media, had two close calls with Starlink satellites, potentially putting Chinese astronauts in harm’s way. That would violate the 1967 Outer Space Treaty that says “states shall avoid harmful contamination of space and celestial bodies.”

The harmful contamination may have already occurred, which can be seen below in a video made by Dr. Stuart Grey.

Satellites Endangering Chinese Space Station

In late 2021, China reached out to the United Nations to notify it that their space station had to maneuver its way out of two near collisions with Starlink satellites. From there, Chinese media picked up the story, blasting the United States, SpaceX, Tesla and Musk himself. Some Chinese people suggested sanctions or boycotts on Musk’s companies.

Why Musk May Apologize

It is that last sentence that could lead to an apology from Musk to the Chinese government – sanctions or boycotts.

In recent years, several global companies have been punished for speaking out publicly against China and particularly about Xinjiang, where an ongoing genocide of Uyghur Muslims is taking place. As a result, revenues for those companies plummeted. Fashion retailer H&M, for instance, saw a 23 percent drop in China sales from March to May last year.

Intel Corp. apologized publicly after it said suppliers should avoid getting source goods from Xinjiang. The list goes on but this is likely not a road Musk wants to go down.

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While the billionaire can afford to lose some of his profits – again, he’s worth over $300 billion – I’m sure his investors don’t feel the same way. Musk has tweeted positive things about China over the last couple of years and was even allowed to open up a factory in Shanghai without a Chinese partner that is typically the case in that country.

I think there’s great value in the odds for Musk making a formal apology because he’s a smart business person and that may keep the wolves at bay for a period of time. Additionally, the market does say “must be a personal apology for any reason,” which does open the door for other mishaps in 2022 and for the +350 to hit.

That said, I could see him not apologizing and hoping everything blows over. That’s likely why the No option is the favorite, with the news cycle so short nowadays.

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