After a short international break, the Premier League is back for matchweek 5. One of my takeaways from the first four matches is how the OVER is hitting at an absurd rate.
OVER 2.5 goals is hitting at 69.2%. Of the 39 games played so far, only 12 matches have seen the total fall below 2.5 goals. That's a big jump from 22-23 when the OVER hit 56% through the first four weeks of the season.
So let's take a look at the OVERs. First, who's hitting them the most and who's the most profitable? Secondly, we'll take a deeper dive to see why each side is seeing the total go over. Is it their offense of defense that's responsible? Finally, we'll take a gander at sustainability and point you in the direction of some near-guarantee OVER sides (and an UNDER side too).
Premier League Profitability
|Team||Record vs OVER||Profitability|
As you can imagine with a league-wide 69% hit rate, betting the OVER for just about any side would net you profit. Bringing in the most profit are Aston Villa (+$319), Burnley (+$224) and Luton (+$215).
All present incredible profit margins. But the reason the OVER is hitting is different.
How Are OVERs Hitting?
We know what sides are the most profitable, but is that happening because that team is scoring most of the goals or are they allowing those goals?
When it comes to the total we shouldn't care if they're letting the goals in. Of course, allowing a goal still counts but being bad defensively doesn't mean the other team is actually going to score. Look at Everton. Through the first three weeks of the season, they scored 0 goals on nearly five expected goals.
With that in mind, I looked at all 27 games that went OVER 2.5 goals and pulled the percentage of goals that were scored by that side.
The big outliers are Manchester City, Liverpool and West Ham who've scored close to, if not more, than three-quarters of the goals in games that went OVER 2.5.
On the other end of the spectrum are Luton and Burnley with less than 20% of the goals and Fulham at 22%. I bet the Cottagers really miss Aleksandar Mitrovic now, eh?
How about Aston Villa? We saw in the first portion of the post that Villa is 4-0 against the OVER and has an insane +$319 profitability. Now we see they're responsible for nearly two-thirds of the goals scored in those four games. Is that sustainable?
To figure that out I'm looking at how many goals a side is scoring above the number of goals we'd expect them to score. The closer that number is to zero the better. It tells us there isn't an imbalance between what they're creating and scoring.
*Goals Scored Above Expected
Combine all three tables and you can spot a side that is as close to a sure thing for OVER 2.5 goals as possible.
At 0.2 GSAx, Aston Villa is about as close to zero as you want to be. Which suggests that what we're seeing from them offensively is sustainable. And, more importantly, you can count on them to continue hitting the OVER at a healthy rate through the season.
Defending champion Manchester City is another side I'd back to hit the OVER week over week. Not only have they scored 2.4 goals above expected so far but they're also responsible for 83% of the goals in games that have gone over.
I know this post is about OVER 2.5 goals, but I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Crystal Palace. They're 1-3 versus the OVER, have scored 60% of the goals in their games and hold a -0.8 GSAx rate. That tells me Roy Hodgson has built a strong defensive unit that allows very little and scores at the same rate. Watch who they're playing against, because if it's any side with a negative GSAx rate, smash the UNDER.