With our outright wagers placed, we now turn to the prop market for our expert selections for the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open. It’s always important to search for value in the top finishing markets, so remember to shop around for the best lines for your 2021 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open prop bets as they typically differ from sportsbook to sportsbook.
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It was nearly a memorable week at Mayakoba as John Huh was able to come through for us in our prop bets, cashing a nice top-20 ticket at +500. Hudson Swafford was in the mix as well and if not for three straight bogeys to end his tournament, he too would have found his way inside the top 20 at the same price. We now shift our focus to Houston Open prop bets.
At Sportsbook, tournament favorite Sam Burns is -170 to finish inside the top 20. According to our odds calculator, this implies a 62.96 percent chance for him to do so this week. Needing to lay $170 to profit $100, we will instead search further down the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open betting board in search of some perceived value.
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How Will Memorial Park Golf Course Play In Its Second Appearance?
Making its debut last season, Memorial Park Golf Course is set to host the Houston Open once again. golf architect Tom Doak and player-consultant Brooks Koepka redesigned the Houston staple, a municipal course, just a couple of years ago. With Koepka’s influence, the difficulty has been raised, which was evident in last year’s Houston Open scores.
Eventual champion Carlos Ortiz finished at 13 under, two strokes ahead of Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama. The two would later go on to win the next two editions of the Masters. While Ortiz was the Sportsbook, you’d be hard pressed to say Johnson was not the best player in the field that week.
After recovering from COVID-19, Johnson arrived to the Houston Open as the clear world No. 1. Leading the field in good drives, greens in regulation, strokes gained off the tee, and par-3 scoring, it was the par 5s that tripped up Johnson, playing them in only 2 under for the week.
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Hovering around 7,400 yards, it should be no surprise big hitters such as Johnson and Koepka found success on the par 70. Long par 4s are accompanied by five difficult par 3s and only three par 5s. With penal rough and tricky run-off areas, Ortiz was able to pull ahead of the field via his short game.
With this said, his around-the-green strokes-gained figures are inflated a touch given how his final round unfolded. Connecting on two long putts from just off the green, those strokes found their way into the around-the-green bucket but realistically belong in SG: Putting.
In all, I would expect scores to make their way into the mid-teens under par by the end of the week. With a bit more experience under their belt, players should be able to improve on their efforts from last year’s Houston Open.
Houston Open Prop Bets: What To Look For
An interesting discussion point for this year’s Houston Open is where it falls on the golf calendar. Historically in April before the Masters, last year’s edition was moved to the fall due to the COVID-19 pandemic and has remained there. Still preceding the Masters, players such as Johnson, Matsuyama and Koepka made their way to Texas as part of their preparation for Augusta.
This year is different as the RSM Classic is next week’s event on the PGA Tour and beyond that is a one-month layoff until the Sentry Tournament of Champions in January. While it is impossible to get inside the mindset of the world’s best, I can assume preparing for a major championship is vastly different than preparing for the offseason.
With limited data, as there has only been one year of play at Memorial Park Golf Course, I will side with those players who appear to be trending in the right direction from a tee-to-green perspective. Every aspect of a player’s bag will be tested this week as strong driving, precise iron play and a creative short game will be needed on this Bermuda-laced golf course.
The top-20 market was kind to us last week, so we will look to keep a good thing going as we take you through our four best bets for the Hewlett Packard Enterprise Houston Open.
Houston Open Prop Bets: Our Recommendations
Brandt Snedeker (+400 to finish inside the top 20)
The Golf Club of Houston was never kind to Snedeker as he failed to crack the top 50 in five starts down the street, missing four cuts in total. However, the venue change to Memorial Park may have been just what the 40-year-old needed. Finishing in a tie for 44th in last year’s Houston Open, Snedeker carded rounds of 65-71-76-69 to sit at 1 over by the end of the week.
Had his Round 3 score read somewhere in the neighborhood of even-par, Snedeker would have found himself inside the top 20. Clearly comfortable with the nuances of Memorial Park, the nine-time Sportsbook on the PGA Tour arrives off a made cut last week at El Camaleon.
While he was struggling ahead of Mayakoba, his irons and short game were hardly the issues. If he is able to find some form off the tee, he should enjoy a nice week and has the potential to sneak inside the top 20.
Wyndham Clark (+400 to finish inside the top 20)
Slowly but surely, Clark is starting to play some quality golf and the Houston Open may be the perfect spot for him to peak. Sportsbook last year’s tournament with a round of 5-over 75, Clark battled back in the second round to miss the 3-over cut line by a single stroke. Striking the ball well, his eventual downfall was a few miscues from around the green that should be cleaned up this time around.
Boasting two top-30 finishes thus far this season, Clark began in Napa where he gained nearly five strokes from tee to green. A poor outlier performance with his irons at TPC Summerlin was since followed up with a nice effort at the Zozo Championship.
Having played some of his finest golf at difficult courses such as PGA National and Riviera, the 27-year-old should feel comfortable his second time around Memorial Park. Finding his stride from tee to green for the most part, if the putter cooperates – which it historically very much does – I believe a top 20 is in Clark’s future.
J.T. Poston (+500 finish inside the top 20)
The law of averages says Poston is due to make a weekend appearance sooner rather than later. Missing his first five cuts of the season, the 28-year-old has struggled to find consistency in a certain area of his game. Surprisingly, it is where his strength has historically lied, as Poston has lost strokes on the greens in each start to begin his 2021-22 campaign.
Despite this, I have seen enough good to chance him this week at the Houston Open as Poston finished in a tie for 20th in this spot last season. Most prominently, the PGA Tour Sportsbook has been competent around the green, posting positive showings at the Sanderson Farms Championship and the Shriners Children’s Open.
Also, at TPC Summerlin, Poston posted +2.4 SG: Approach over two rounds, his best iron performance since the 3M Open. While off the tee he reads negative, his driver flashed some serious form at Mayakoba last week. The North Carolina native now finds himself on Bermuda grass once again and if able to return to his historical form with the putter, I believe he can repeat last season’s Houston Open performance.
Jim Herman (+700 to finish inside the top 20)
Playing for only the third time this swing season, the 2016 Houston Open champion will make his debut at Memorial Park this week. Although he has failed to capture a top-40 finish thus far, the ball-striking has been quite solid over a prolonged period of time for the 44-year-old.
I don’t believe strokes gained figures tell the full story for Herman, as he has been finding fairways at a more efficient clip relative to the field in 11 straight starts and greens in regulation in eight of nine outings. He’ll need those figures to continue into this week given the distance he gives up to the likes of Burns and Scheffler.
However, we are only asking for a top-20 finish here and he is more than capable of doing so. He’s found some touch with the putter in his two previous tournaments and doesn’t mind the grind of difficult conditions and thus makes for our final best bet for the Houston Open.
