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2021 John Deere Classic Odds and Expert Picks

2021 John Deere Classic odds and expert betting picks

Another week, another playoff. The Rocket Mortgage Classic provided plenty of fireworks over the Fourth of July weekend. This week, the John Deere Classic will take shape, hoping to produce much of the same.

For a brief moment, I thought we were bound for our second straight eight-hole playoff, as neither Cameron Davis nor Troy Merritt appeared to want to win. In the end, it was Davis who captured his first win on the PGA Tour. Alas, we turn the page on the golf calendar and head to the 2021 John Deere Classic, a tournament we haven’t seen take place in quite some time.

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Due to COVID-19 complications, the John Deere Classic was axed from the 2020 PGA Tour schedule. As such, TPC Deere Run hasn’t taken center stage since 2019, so some memory jogging may be in order. Designed by former player D.A. Weibring, this par 71 has the capability of stretching out to 7,250 yards if needed.

In 2019, Dylan Frittelli broke through in a big way as he utilized deft touch on and around the greens. Similar to Bryson DeChambeau at the 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic, Frittelli actually lost strokes to the field in Strokes Gained: Approach for the week.

I highly doubt that’ll be the case for the 2021 John Deere Classic winner as it tends to be more of a shootout event with birdies coming in bunches. Still, Frittelli found his way to 21 under, a number that’ll likely be passed this week.

Other first-time winners of this event include the likes of Michael Kim in 2018, who came out of nowhere and has since returned to nowhere, as it seems like he’s missing the cut every week. And two of the biggest names in the game, DeChambeau in 2017 and Jordan Spieth in 2015, both needed 72nd-hole theatrics on their way to victory.

The 2021 John Deere Classic should hopefully make for yet another compelling week on the PGA Tour. At Bovada, Daniel Berger sits atop the oddsboard at +900, with an implied probability to win of 10.00 percent. If successful, a $100 bet on him would net you $900 profit. The clear class of the field, Berger will need to hold off TPC Deere Run savants such as Zach Johnson and Steve Stricker, who have owned this course throughout their careers.

2021 John Deere Classic Betting Odds

Odds To Win The 2021 John Deere Classic 
Daniel Berger+900
Brian Harman+1400
Sungjae Im+1400
Kevin Streelman+2000
Russell Henley+2000
Cameron Davis+2500
Alex Noren+2800
Aaron Wise+3300
Kevin Na+3300
Si Woo Kim+3300
Maverick McNealy+4000
Patton Kizzire+4000
Seamus Power+4000
Troy Merritt+4000
Zach Johnson+4000
Doc Redman+5000
Doug Ghim+5000
Harold Varner III+5000
Jhonattan Vegas+5000
Kyle Stanley+5000
Lucas Glover+5000
Steve Stricker+5000

Odds as of July 6 at Bovada

Does Daniel Berger Deserve Such a Hefty Price Tag?

After many people got burned last week with Bryson DeChambeau at +750, the big question coming into the 2021 John Deere Classic is whether Daniel Berger deserves a similar price this week. Yes, he won earlier this season at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, hovering anywhere from +1500 to +2000 pre-tournament, but is it justified?

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The field for the 2021 John Deere Classic is lacking, to say the least, and Berger clearly is the best player in the field, but I’ll just say to proceed with caution. It’s the same logic for every week, forgoing the favorites, but with a recent influx of long shots coming through, especially at the John Deere Classic, it is important for me to harp on it just a bit more.

Can Another First-Time Winner Break Through?

As just touched on, the long shots have taken a liking to TPC Deere Run. With winners such as Frittelli and Kim, this week could provide yet another great opportunity for a first-time winner. With Cameron Davis breaking through, that makes one less player with the cloud of “will he ever win?” hanging over his head.

Some likely candidates to capture their breakthrough victory at the 2021 John Deere Classic include Patrick Rodgers, Seamus Power, Maverick McNealy and Alex Noren. Noren has plenty of victories on the European Tour, 10 in fact, but remains shut out here in the States.

Course and Analysis

A short course with not too much trouble lurking is giving me some serious déjà vu, as last week’s venue, Detroit Golf Club, does not appear to be all that different, at least on paper. Heck, there are even some similarities to TPC River Highlands, the host of the Travelers Championship just a couple of weeks ago.

Short and sweet, this week will be another birdie-fest. With scores reaching somewhere close to 25 under, a player must hone his wedges if he expects to contend at the 2021 John Deere Classic. Precise iron play combined with a streaky putter is the typical recipe for success around this course and should be once again this week.

John Deere Classic Expert Picks

Hank Lebioda (+6600 to win)

We are going to continue to ride the hot hand until it burns us. Lebioda was kind enough to cash our top-10 wager on him last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. This week, we’re going to take it up a notch as you can slowly see the wheels turning toward a victory.

Having been in the mix Sunday at the Travelers Championship, Lebioda faltered just as he began his back nine. This past Sunday, the error occurred on the 71st hole as he three-putted for par, narrowly missing a playoff. Clearly a bit more comfortable in the position, the next step is simply to win.

Two consecutive top-five finishes, while nice for Lebioda and for the sake of securing his PGA Tour card, aren’t why you play the game. You play to win the game. His game is in tune and he’s proven he’s capable of getting into the mix come Sunday – he just needs to get the job done. This week at the John Deere Classic could finally be that time.

Scott Stallings (+8000 to win)

A two-time winner on the PGA Tour, Stallings would continue the trend of previous winners breaking through after a prolonged period of not doing so. He showed us plenty last week at the Rocket Mortgage and I am expecting him to carry over his ball-striking from Michigan to Illinois.

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For the week, Stallings posted only +2.5 SG: Tee-to-Green, but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Stallings lost 3.6 strokes around the greens, an area of the game which shouldn’t factor too heavily at TPC Deere Run. Taking that out of the equation, it was a fantastic week, as he posted +1.1 SG: Off-the-Tee, +5.0 SG: Approach and +2.1 SG: Putting.

Rounding into form at the exact right time, Stallings has also enjoyed some success in Silvis. In four appearances from 2016 to 2019, he boasts two top-20 finishes along with a top-five finish in 2017. He’s just a hot putting performance away from outdoing those results and hopefully getting back into the winner’s circle.

Jim Herman (+12500 to win)

This is where things are going to get a bit weird. With not a ton of value toward the top of the golf betting oddsboard, I would much rather attack the bottom half and hope a flyer comes through for us. Herman could be the perfect candidate to fill such a role as he has proven that once he gets into contention, he’s not going anywhere.

Over his career, Herman has only five top-five finishes. It’s a bit hard to comprehend, especially considering three of those finishes resulted in a victory. Most recently, it was the 2020 Wyndham Championship which he is set to defend next month.

He now comes to the John Deere Classic on the heels of back-to-back top-30 finishes. Riding a bit of consistency, which Herman is hardly known for, TPC Deere Run could be a fantastic spot for him to capture victory No. 3. He’s been known to get scorching hot on the greens from time to time and there may be no better week than this week for him to do just that.

Scott Piercy (+12500 to win)

A true boom-or-bust option, it may be more prudent to go to Piercy in the top-20 market. I’m feeling a touch greedy having found some success over the last month, so I’ll go to him in the outright market instead. Coming off a pair of missed cuts, at courses that boast similar features to TPC Deere Run, Piercy should return to form sooner or later.

Let’s hope it’s sooner as the two-time winner on the PGA Tour has five top-20s to his name so far this season, two of them coming since the beginning of May. He’ll clearly need to improve on that, but his irons provide reason for optimism. Before Detroit, he had gained strokes on approach in four consecutive outings and showed the potential of putting extremely well with his performance at the Palmetto Championship.

If he brings those irons, combined with his strong driving of the golf ball, Piercy should be a threat to possibly contend. In three starts at TPC Deere Run, he’s actually done his fair share of damage, posting results of T-14 in 2015 and a solo third in 2012. He gained north of six strokes on the greens in 2012 and just a fraction of that should do the trick given how he’s struck the ball for the majority of the early summer.