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Jon Rahm is the favorite in the Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds.

The Florida swing got off to a watery start as numerous players were brought to their knees at the difficult PGA National at last week’s Honda Classic. With a first-time winner once again coming through on the PGA Tour, this recent trend of newcomers in the winner’s circle should come to an end this week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill Club & Lodge.

Every bit as demanding as the Champion Course at PGA National, Bay Hill has been a longtime stop for some of the premier players in the world. While it has lost some of its luster in recent years since the passing of Arnold Palmer himself, it appears as if the shine is beginning to come through once again.

A bigger purse and more FedExCup points are up for grabs this week just outside of Orlando, Florida, and a large European contingency will be showing face, hoping to peak not only this week but more importantly next week at TPC Sawgrass for the Players Championship.

World No. 1 Jon Rahm headlines the oddsboard at Bovada after taking last week off. The Spaniard is making his tournament debut at Bay Hill and is listed at +800 to capture his first victory since his first major championship at the U.S. Open. Our odds calculator gives Rahm an 11.11 percent chance to find the winner’s circle and end a serious winless drought in his first appearance in the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Here’s a look at the golfers with the likeliest odds to go all the way:

Who Is Favored To Win The Arnold Palmer Invitational?

2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds
Golfer Odds
Jon Rahm +800
Rory McIlroy +1000
Viktor Hovland +1400
Scottie Scheffler +1600
Hideki Matsuyama +2200
Will Zalatoris +2500
Adam Scott +2800
Matthew Fitzpatrick +2800
Sungjae Im +2800
Keith Mitchell +3300
Marc Leishman +3300
Paul Casey +3300
Tyrell Hatton +3300
Jason Kokrak +4000
Max Homa +4000
Sam Burns +4000
Billy Horschel +5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5000

Odds as of March 1 at Bovada

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What Happened In Last Year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational?

The reason Rahm, Rory McIlroy and Viktor Hovland spearhead the oddsboard is the Monday morning withdrawal of defending champion Bryson DeChambeau. The 2020 U.S. Open champion has only played once in the entire 2021-22 season and appears to be nursing a serious wrist injury with hopes of returning next week.

That will be a welcomed sight for golf fans as it was at Bay Hill in 2021 where the big-hitting American grabbed the attention of everyone in the sport. Nearly driving the green on the par-5 sixth over the weekend, DeChambeau threw both fists in the air after the tee shot was launched into orbit.

Needing all the help he could get, DeChambeau was tested to the bitter end by none other than Lee Westwood. The wily Englishman utilized precision and wits to nearly tame the wild beast that was DeChambeau, finishing one stroke back at 10 under.

In the end, the 28-year-old DeChambeau ranked 21st in SG: Putting, 30th in SG: Around-the-Green, ninth in SG: Approach and first in SG: Off-the-Tee to add his name to the list of high-caliber previous winners. I expect a similar outcome at this year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Course & Analysis

Bay Hill Club and Lodge will once again present fits for some of the best players in the world. This par 72 has stood the test of time with an average winning score of 9 under over the last decade.

With all four par 3s measuring north of 200 yards, long iron play will be a prerequisite for success when also factoring in the long par 4s and the four par 5s. With those clubs in check, the next order of business on this Dick Wilson design in namely off the tee.

Driving the golf ball well has the ability to propel one’s name up the leaderboard, evident in past champions such as DeChambeau, McIlroy, Jason Day and Francesco Molinari. That should be no surprise on a track measuring north of 7,500 yards as penal rough outlines fairways and the advantage of taking a short iron over a mid-iron into these firm Bermuda grass greens has been well-documented.

2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Expert Selections:

Sungjae Im +2800 To Win

While he is perhaps still feeling the effects of his missed cut at last week’s Honda Classic, I will not be deterred from wagering on the South Korean at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where the Olympian has thrived in years past.

After posting back-to-back third-place finishes in 2019 and 2020, Im finished in a tie for 21st last season. The world No. 24 is clearly comfortable on this par 72 and would certainly fit in among the recent winners who thrive from off the tee.

A fantastic driver of the golf ball, the 23-year-old posted quality results on the West Coast, namely a T-8 at the Sentry Tournament of Champions, T-11 at the American Express and T-6 at the Farmers Insurance Open. One of the best players on the tour in the state of Florida the last three years, Im should be able to connect on his second victory of the season if he is able to shrug off last week and return to his West Coast form.

Sergio Garcia +5000 To Win

Yet another impressive off-the-tee player makes our Arnold Palmer Invitational outright selections as Garcia presents plenty of upside at this price. The Spaniard has now made five consecutive cuts and appears to be hitting his stride.

After finishing in a tie for seventh at the World Wide Technology Championship and a tie for 12th at the Dubai Desert Classic, Garcia’s week will be dependent on his putter. Striking the ball adequately for the most part, the 42-year-old may have found something at the Genesis Invitational.

He gained nearly two strokes on the field and a switch from poa annua to Bermuda grass should increase this advantage. If it does, Garcia is one of the best at avoiding mistakes and given the volatile nature of the Arnold Palmer Invitational, this should come in handy.

Corey Conners +6600 To Win:

In the mix with DeChambeau and Westwood last season, Conners eventually finished in solo third place. He arrives this time around with some middling form and this is simply a buy-low opportunity on the Canadian as the West Coast swing did not treat him well, with three missed cuts in California alone.

Now back to his preferred Bermuda grass, the Olympian ranked 13th in SG: Putting in last year’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. If he is able to replicate such a performance, he should be able to put his best foot forward as he remains atop the list of best ball-strikers on the PGA Tour.

Consistently gaining strokes off the tee and capable of running hot with his iron play, Conners’ chipping will likely tell the tale of his week. After showing some signs of life in his last time out at Riviera, I am willing to suggest it will come around again at Bay Hill.

Si Woo Kim +8000 To Win

Si Woo Kim is a player I believe is flying under the radar this week as his off-the-tee play has been some of the best on the tour this season. Receiving a discount on his price solely due to his lack of course history at Bay Hill, the South Korean should be able to right the wrongs of his past performances at Bay Hill.

Missing four cuts and withdrawing from last year’s Invitational leaves a lot to be desired, but his current form is hard to overlook, especially given the fact that when Kim has putted adequately this year, he has found himself in the mix.

His tee-to-green play has been that good as the 26-year-old has collected finishes of T-11 at the American Express, T-11 at the Farmers Insurance Open and T-26 at the WM Phoenix Open. With a previous win in the state of Florida, Kim makes for an intriguing option down the Arnold Palmer Invitational betting board.

Martin Laird +15000 To Win

You may hear about the recent trend of European and International players coming through at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but believe it or not, this began with Laird in 2011. Now more than a decade removed from the biggest victory of his career, the Scotsman arrives this season in some excellent form.

Connecting on three consecutive cuts, the 39-year-old has collected results of T-46 at the Farmers Insurance Open, T-14 at the WM Phoenix Open and T-39 at the Genesis Invitational. Despite this string of consistency, Laird has yet to get his full game to cooperate for an entire week.

Whether it is his iron play or short game, something always falls short. However, Laird has gained strokes with his short game in six of 11 appearances at Bay Hill and I am willing to suggest this is the week he pieces it all together.

Taylor Pendrith +25000 To Win

With so many great drivers listed above, I would be remiss to not add another to our Arnold Palmer Invitational selections. Pendrith, a PGA Tour rookie, has already made a name for himself as he commanded the 54-hole lead at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship and eventually finished in a tie for fifth.

I believe a course such as Bay Hill will suit the Canadian’s game. Extremely long off the tee and flashing some form with his irons, he almost reminds me of a DeChambeau-type player.

Whenever such a comparison comes to mind, it is hard to overlook as Pendrith’s T-25 result at the Honda Classic was eye-opening. He found his stride from tee to green in his tournament debut and more of the same could perhaps be in store just down the street in Orlando.


Props

Golf is unique for many reasons, but one of them is the significant number of betting props available at weekly tournaments. The Arnold Palmer Invitational is no different.

Sportsbooks are offering odds on things like whether there will be a hole-in-one, OVER/UNDERs on the winning score for the eventual champion and odds on which players from specific countries will have the lowest score, to name a few.

Like other sports, betting on props is a fun and unique way to enhance your golf gambling experience.

Live Betting

Live Betting is arguably one of the most exciting ways to bet on golf. If the player you placed a pre-tournament bet on is out of the running at any point during the Arnold Palmer Invitational, you can bet on another golfer as the days go by and have another stake in the game.

If there are only a few men in the hunt on the final day, the odds likely won’t be significantly high, but your chances of winning are. We’ve seen this happen multiple times in the PGA Tour’s Return to Golf, as multiple tournaments have gone to a playoff.

These helpful pages will assist you in handicapping your golf wagers:

Odds Shark’s Golf Pages
  • Betting News: All the golf betting news necessary to give you an edge when placing your bets on the PGA Tour.
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