2021 Sanderson Farms Championship Odds: Best Bets

After an emotional and historic Ryder Cup, the PGA Tour resumes this week in Jackson, Mississippi. Most golf fans will likely be taking a break after such a week, but we can’t enjoy such a luxury, as we dive headfirst into the Sanderson Farms Championship. The second event of the 2021-22 season, the Country Club of Jackson will welcome old and new players alike.

Despite partaking in last week’s Ryder Cup, Sergio Garcia has made well on his promise to defend his title. Last year’s Sanderson Farms champion, the Spaniard narrowly held off Peter Malnati, who came steamrolling home on Sunday with a final round of 9-under 62. With the pressure firmly applied, Garcia’s approach on the 72nd hole secured a birdie and his 11th victory on the PGA Tour.

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The Ryder Cup stalwart will be joined by the likes of Corey Conners and Sam Burns. Both have had previous success in the Sanderson Farms Championship and will be looking for their second career victory on the PGA Tour. However, the Country Club of Jackson has been kind to newcomers in the past, with first-time winners such as Sebastian Munoz and Cameron Champ – who happens to hold the 72-hole scoring record – coming through in Mississippi.

As we continue into the final round the favorite is Sam Burns sitting at +275 at Sportsbook. At +275, the odds calculator at Odds Shark gives Burns a 26.67 percent chance to capture his second PGA Tour title. In addition to the new crop of players, the former Demon Deacon will need to fend off veterans such as Charley Hoffman, Kevin Streelman, and Keegan Bradley if he expects to find his way into the winner’s circle at the Sanderson Farms Championship.

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Sam Burns Leads Sanderson Farms Championship Odds

Odds as of October 3 at Sportsbook

Course and Analysis:

Playing host to the Sanderson Farms Championship for the eighth time, the Country Club of Jackson is your standard course on the PGA Tour. With the average winning scoring coming close to 20 under, players will need to get out of the gates fast or risk the possibility of being lapped.

Stretching to nearly 7,500 yards, this 27-hole gem will utilize the 18 finest holes on the property. Being your typical par 72, par-4 and par-5 scoring will be crucial to one’s success this week. While it is hardly penal off the tee, a mix of long and short hitters have taken to the course. Essentially, anyone in the field can compete at the Sanderson Farms Championship, as is true with all birdie-fests on the PGA Tour.

While ball-striking will be at the forefront of our analysis for the Sanderson Farms Championship, the massive spikes in putting cannot be ignored. Last year, Garcia closed his eyes – literally – on the greens and was able to come away positive in the Strokes Gained: Putting category. Relying primarily on his ball-striking as he typically does, such an effort was enough to push Garcia over the finish line.

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However, in the two prior years, Sebastian Munoz and Cameron Champ both had career weeks on the greens. The Colombian gained nine strokes with the flat stick in 2019 and the big-hitting Champ gained nearly eight in his first career victory.

It is a crapshoot to predict such putting performances, leaving some uneasiness in our analysis. We’ll give it our best effort, but what we can look at are recent ball-striking trends, as around-the-green play isn’t all that important at the Country Club of Jackson – you just have to look to Garcia, who actually lost strokes in said category en route to his victory last year.

2021 Sanderson Farms Championship Expert Picks:

Mito Pereira (+3300 to win)

The number has been slashed compared to the Fortinet Championship, but it is not without good reason. The popular Chilean continued to impress in Napa, capturing the best finish of his young PGA Tour career. While this new number is a tough pill to swallow, it is likely going to continue to be in this neighborhood for the entirety of the fall swing on the PGA Tour.

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In six starts on the tour in 2021, all Pereira has done is finish inside the top 10 three times, two of which doubled as top-five finishes. After posting a career best +11.3 SG: Tee-to-Green at Silverado Resort and Spa, a cooperative week with the putter could spell success for the 26-year-old.

Mackenzie Hughes (+6600 to win)

Throw out the record book for this one as the Canadian struggled in the FedExCup playoffs to end last season. Posting back-to-back poor performances with his irons, one has to be wary of his chance this week at the Country Club of Jackson. However, I may be on an island in saying this is a spot where I could see Hughes thrive. Well-rested and re-energized, he returns to Mississippi for the first time since 2016, when he finished in a tie for 26th.

At first glance, the ball-striking numbers look poor from five years ago, but when diving deeper, that proves to be misleading. In 2016, he hit plenty of fairways and plenty of greens, and while his proximity was worse than others, he was able to post nearly six strokes gained on the greens. He has the capability of having one of those memorable tournaments with the flat stick, sending his stock soaring in my portfolio.

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There may be some potential crossover to Corales Punta Cana Resort and Spa as well, where Hughes has a runner-up and a podium finish. And let’s not forget before the postseason, the Olympian had some strong finishes on Donald Ross designs.

While CC of Jackson wasn’t designed by the man, inspiration was surely taken from the architect. Capturing a top-40 finish at Sedgefield Country Club and a top-15 finish at Detroit Golf Club, Hughes has taken a liking to Donald Ross before. A big-time player in majors to end the summer, his upside is undeniable and thus makes his way onto the card.

C.T. Pan (+8000 to win)

There is a possibility we missed Pan’s peak putting week, having gained 6.5 strokes on the greens at the Fortinet Championship. However, there is also a chance we are on the cusp of another great performance with the flat stick. If that comes to fruition at the Sanderson Farms Championship, the rest of his game appears to be in a nice spot.

Coming off a top-10 finish in Napa, the Olympic bronze medalist has to be brimming with confidence. Striking the ball beautifully in California, posting +4.6 SG: Approach, he understands a course such as CC of Jackson fits his game to a T. Having finished in a tie for 12th in 2020, Pan gained north of seven strokes on the greens last year, yet struggled off the tee.

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He turned that area of the game into a strength late last season and should continue to do so in Mississippi. I won’t put too much stock into the negative figures at Silverado, as it mostly had to do with his inaccuracy with the big stick, not necessarily the distance aspect of driving.

I will reiterate, I understand CC of Jackson is not a Ross design, but the last time we saw Pan on such, he was busy posting +9.2 SG: Tee-to-Green. Comfortable with the subtle nuances, an effort similar to that combined with his historical and recent putting should put him in a prime position to capture win No. 2 on the PGA Tour.

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Rory Sabbatini (+10000 to win)

With Xander Schauffele not in the field, we will have to settle for the Olympic silver medalist as our last selection for the Sanderson Farms Championship. We haven’t seen Sabbatini since the Wyndham Championship as he failed to qualify for the FedExCup playoffs. It wasn’t for lack of effort as he posted a top-10 finish at Sedgefield Country Club in one of his better performances of last season.

A top-10 in Greensboro marked his best finish since a similar outing at Torrey Pines for the Farmers Insurance Open in late January. While it was a mixed bag in between, ending his season on a high note could bring prosperity to the beginning of this season.

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Surely a volatile option, Sabbatini found his putting stroke late last summer with performances of +0.5 and +2.7 SG: Putting in his final two outings. Combined with gaining strokes in three of four starts tee to green, the Sanderson Farms Championship could be a spot where he peaks.

Making his fourth appearance at CC of Jackson, Sabbatini has played his way into the weekend in each of his previous three showings. A 57th-place finish in 2016 has since been followed up with a tie for 20th and a tie for 12th. In those final two finishes, he either had a strong iron performance or a strong putting performance, however never both. If both come to life this week, he could find his name on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday.