2021 Tour Championship: Odds To Win And Expert Picks

Only 30 men are left standing in the race to be crowned the 2021 FedExCup playoff champion and it’s all going to come down to the final postseason event at East Lake Golf Course in Atlanta, Georgia, from September 2-5.

The top 30 players in the FedExCup standings will duke it out at East Lake. This is the third year of the PGA Tour’s staggered start format, where the FedExCup leader, Patrick Cantlay, will begin the week at -10 and two shots ahead of the second-place player in the standings, Tony Finau.

The rest of the golfers will start further down the leaderboard based on their ranking in the FedExCup. The player who places atop the leaderboard Sunday evening wins both the Tour Championship and the FedExCup.

Coming off his dramatic win over Bryson DeChambeau at the BMW Championship last week, you would think Cantlay would open as the favorite with his two-shot lead. But it’s Jon Rahm who oddsmakers at Bovada have as the favorite at +375. He is followed by Cantlay (+400), DeChambeau (+550), Finau (+750) and Justin Thomas (+1800) to round out the top five in Tour Championship odds.

2021 Tour Championship Odds

Odds as of August 31 at Bovada

To learn more about wagering on the links, check out our How to Bet on Golf page. Looking to put some money down? Our Best Golf Sites article will help you find the sportsbook that’s right for you. 

Course And Tournament Information

Cantlay In Pole Position At East Lake

Cantlay, coming off an exhilarating playoff at the BMW Championship, will start the week at 10 under. The No. 4-ranked golfer in the world heading into Thursday, Cantlay is searching for his third win of the season and first Tour Championship and FedExCup. 

Finau (-8), DeChambeau (-7), Rahm (-6), Cameron Smith (-5), Harris English (-4), Justin Thomas (-4), Sam Burns (-4), Abraham Ancer (-4) and Jordan Spieth (-4) will start the week within striking distance of Cantlay.

Past Five Tour Championship Winners

Tour Championship Picks

Tony Finau +750

Starting only two strokes back of Cantlay in second place, Finau is in a great spot to win his first Tour Championship after taking down the Northern Trust for his first win of the season two weeks go.

Finau has had too many heartbreaking finishes in big tournaments to count, and bettors are probably wary of his ability to finish on Sunday with a tournament on the line. But Finau, the ninth-ranked player in the world, has played the 10th-most rounds at this course over his career (so the familiarity is there) compared to the field, and he has averaged 2.06 strokes gained on the field per round at this venue (which also ranks 10th).

Finau has three runner-up finishes and three other top-10 showings in 21 events in 2021 and finished T-15 last week at the BMW. He’s always at the top of leaderboards. Maybe his long-awaited win two weeks ago will open the floodgates.

We like a bet where the player is starting in second position but has the fourth-best odds.

Jordan Spieth +2800

Spieth wasn’t great in either of the first two legs of the playoff the last two weeks, finishing T-34 last week and 73rd at the Northern Trust. But before that, he had a run of eight top-20 finishes in his last nine tournaments. That included a win at the Valero Texas Open and two second-place finishes, including one at the Open Championship in July. 

Despite the recent struggles, Spieth is still one of the best golfers on the planet and is fully capable of making up the six-stroke deficit he starts this tournament with. We like his odds at +2800 considering there are multiple golfers who will start off behind him but are above him on the odds table.

Collin Morikawa +4000

It’s been an incredible summer for Morikawa. While he finished T-63 last week and was cut at the Northern Trust two weeks ago, the 24-year-old finished in the top 10 in five of his previous seven tournaments and was T-14 and T-26 in the other two.

That incredible run from the end of May to the beginning of August included a win at the Open Championship, a T-4 at the U.S. Open, a runner-up at the Memorial and a narrow miss of the podium at the Tokyo Olympics.

Morikawa finished first in the regular-season FedExCup rankings and is only starting down at -3 because of his finishes the last two weeks. However, he has proven that he is capable of climbing a leaderboard for a win after starting Day 2 of the Open Championship tied for ninth before storming back and winning by two strokes.

For one of the best players on tour this season, +4000 represents extremely attractive odds. 

Here’s a helpful outline of some of the different betting options for the Tour Championship to help you decide which wager(s) would be best for you.

Pre-Tournament Bets

This is the most common and simplest type of golf wager. Since the Tour Championship starts on Friday, getting your bets in before action tees off is the best way to find value.

All you have to do is pick one or more golfers, and you’re locked in for the duration of the event.

Considering Rahm is the favorite at +375, a $100 bet on him will win you a profit of $375 plus your initial $100 back if he emerges triumphant. If you wanted to make a long-shot bet – say Scottie Scheffler at +11000 – you’d garner a payout of $11,100.

Obviously Scheffler’s chances of winning outright are slim, but bettors would be wise to mix in one or two long shots. 

Live Betting

Live betting is a fascinating way to watch golf. If the player you placed a pre-tournament bet on is out of the running at any point during the event, you can easily get back in the game by wagering on another golfer as the days go by.

If there are only a few golfers in the hunt on the final day, the odds likely won’t be significantly high, but your chances of winning are due to the limited number of players in contention.

Most sportsbooks have live betting options during PGA Tour tournaments.

These pages will help you handicap your golf bets: