Kalshi has the potential to seriously shake up football betting in the 2025 season. As the NFL preseason gets underway and we count down the days to the games that matter on the pro and college side, there’s a whole new ballgame for football bettors to consider.
For the uninitiated, Kalshi is a prediction market platform where users buy and sell contracts based on the outcomes of future events. They dipped their toes into the football waters earlier this year with contracts and markets for the postseason.
Fast forward to today, the menu is packed with options for both the NFL and college football. You can trade on individual games and a host of futures markets. Read on, and we’ll get you up to speed in a flash on how Kalshi could change football betting in the 2025 season.
How Kalshi’s Football Markets Work
Kalshi operates prediction markets using simple “yes or no” contracts on specific NFL and college football outcomes. Each contract represents a binary option, meaning it will settle at $1 if the event happens (“yes”) or $0 if it does not (“no”). Contracts are priced between $0 and $1 and fluctuate based on market supply and demand.
When viewing contract prices, it’s a reflection of the collective belief about the likelihood of the event. For example, a contract asking “Will Team X win the next NFL game?” might trade at $0.65. Buying the contract at this price means the market estimates a 65% chance of that outcome. If Team X wins, the contract settles at $1, and worthless if they lose.
The market-driven pricing dynamic functions like a stock market or commodities exchange. Prices will evolve and move as new information becomes available and in response to market activity. Users can buy and sell contracts before the event settles, offering the opportunity to lock in profits or mitigate losses.
Current football markets open for trading include:
- NFL preseason games
- NFL Week 1 games
- NFL futures - Super Bowl, conference and division winners, playoff qualifiers
- NFL win totals and exact wins
- NFL award winners - MVP, Coach of the Year, Rookie of the Year, etc.
- NFL draft - first overall pick
- College Football regular season games
- College Football futures - Championship and conference winners
For additional details on how it all works, check our comprehensive Kalshi review.
Kalshi vs. Traditional Sportsbooks
There are distinct differences between trading on Kalshi and betting at traditional sportsbooks. The sportsbook acts as the bookmaker, setting fixed odds and accepting bets directly. Kalshi operates a prediction market where users can trade contracts on certain outcomes, with prices responding in real-time.
Sportsbooks offer a wider range of football betting markets. You can wager on moneyline, spreads, totals, props, parlays, live betting markets, and more. At Kalshi, the current offerings are limited to individual game forecasting, which are similar to sportsbook moneylines where you pick the outright winner of the contest, and a wide range of futures markets.
The table below highlights the key differences you need to know about how Kalshi compares to traditional sportsbooks.
| Feature | Kalshi | Traditional Sportsbooks |
| Betting Model | Prediction market with binary yes/no contracts traded peer-to-peer. | Bookmaker sets fixed odds on a variety of bet types. |
| Pricing | Market-driven prices are between $0 and $1. Reflects probability with no built-in house edge. | Fixed odds include built-in “vig” or house edge to ensure sportsbook profit. |
| Fees / Costs | Transparent transaction fees based on size and price of trade, generally capped at $1.75 per 100 contracts traded. | Vig is embedded in the odds. There are no separate fees for placing bets. |
| Regulation | Federally regulated as a Designated Contract Market by the CFTC. | Licensed and regulated by individual states. Varies by jurisdiction. |
| Availability | Available nationwide under federal oversight, including some states without legal sportsbooks. Legal pushback has halted availability in IL, MD, MT, NJ, NV, and OH. | Restricted to states with legalized sports betting. Online sports betting is available in 30 states plus Washington, DC. |
| Bet Types & Markets | Simple yes/no contracts on specific events (game winners, futures). | Wide range of bets: spreads, moneylines, totals, props, parlays, live betting, and more. |
| User Experience | More like a financial exchange. Users can buy/sell contracts anytime before the event settles. | Traditional sportsbook interface focused on placing bets and automatic settlement upon event resolution. |
| Market Liquidity | Variable, but sports betting contract popularity has steadily risen. Dependent on the number of participants and open interest. | Usually high liquidity for NFL and college football with large betting pools. |
| Ability to Exit Bets Early | Users can trade contracts before event settlement. | Cash-out options are available, but less flexible than prediction markets. |
Whether you're trading on Kalshi or betting at a traditional sportsbook this season, there’s risk involved. Check out our guide to responsible gaming for tips on managing your play in a healthy fashion and dedicated resources where you can learn even more.
Benefits of Betting on Kalshi
If you are in the market for something different this football season, Kalshi does bring several advantages to the table. You can view it as a complement or an alternative to the traditional sports betting experience. Here’s a rundown of some of the key benefits.
- Accessibility: Kalshi operates under federal regulation, allowing users in many states to participate, even in places where traditional sports betting may be restricted or unavailable.
- Liquidity and Transparency: Markets depend on active participation, with prices that adjust in real time based on supply and demand. While liquidity can vary by contract, this transparent pricing provides clear insight into the market’s collective expectations, unlike fixed lines with a hidden house edge.
- Innovative Experience: Kalshi’s platform functions like a financial exchange, letting users buy and sell yes/no contracts anytime before settlement. This flexibility goes beyond simply placing a bet. You can employ strategies like exiting positions early or reacting dynamically to new information as it develops.
- Lower Fees: Instead of a built-in sportsbook “vig,” Kalshi charges straightforward transaction fees that are generally lower. This can improve the cost-efficiency of betting on football over time.
- Simplicity: By offering binary yes/no outcomes, Kalshi simplifies the betting process and reduces complexity. It’s an appealing option for users who prefer a straightforward approach to predicting football events.
Kalshi’s Legal Landscape
Kalshi operates as a federally regulated prediction market under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a Designated Contract Market (DCM). This federal classification allows Kalshi to offer its yes/no event contracts nationwide, including in many states where traditional sportsbooks are not permitted. However, there has been pushback.
Several states, including Nevada and New Jersey, have issued cease-and-desist orders arguing that Kalshi’s sports-related event contracts amount to unauthorized gambling under state law. The ongoing debate centers on whether these prediction markets should be treated as commodity trading or as sports betting subject to state restrictions.
Hearings and possible regulatory rulemaking by the CFTC are expected in 2025 to clarify the legal status further. It’s a fluid situation in which new developments seem to arise with each passing week. As this season plays out, keep an eye on our industry news hub for the latest developments on Kalshi and prediction market availability.
Getting Started on Kalshi
If you’re new to Kalshi, getting started is straightforward. Use the steps below as a guide to creating your account ahead of football season.
- Create an Account: Visit Kalshi and sign up with your email address. Follow the prompts and provide the requested information to register your account.
- Deposit Funds: Choose your method and add funds to your Kalshi account. You can deposit via bank account, wire transfer, debit cards, and supported cryptocurrencies.
- Browse Markets: Click on the sports tab and browse the available pro and college football markets, which include individual games and futures.
- Select Contracts: Choose “Yes” or “No” contracts based on your prediction. Contracts are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, reflecting the market’s current probability.
- Place Your Order: Enter the number of contracts you want to buy or sell and confirm the trade. Your position will appear in your portfolio.
- Manage Positions: You can monitor prices as market sentiment changes. Sell your contracts anytime before the event settles if you want to lock in profits or cut losses.
- Settlement and Payout: After the event outcome, winning contracts settle at $1. If you’re correct, you receive $1 per contract. Incorrect contracts expire worthless.
Kalshi Trading Tips and Common Pitfalls to Avoid
If you’re planning on getting started with Kalshi for football season, know there will be a learning curve as you get up to speed. Here are some key tips that can help you hit the ground running, along with some common pitfalls that you’ll want to watch out for.
- Start Small: Begin with a modest investment to familiarize yourself with contract pricing and market behavior.
- Understand Liquidity: Some markets may have limited buyers and sellers, making it harder to exit positions at favorable prices. You can view overall market liquidity before placing trades.
- Watch Trading Fees: Kalshi charges transparent transaction fees based on the price and size of trades. It’s capped at $1.75 per 100 contracts traded, but fees still add up with frequent trading.
- Monitor Markets: Prices respond in real time to news and trading activity. Staying on top of overall movement is a key part of managing your positions.
- No Guarantees: Like any other form of trading or betting, losses are always possible. Never trade more than you can afford to lose.
- Stay Informed: Keep up to date on news and developments on the event contracts you trade. Market prices can move quickly, so do your best to stay in the know.
The Bottom Line for Football Bettors
Prediction markets have exploded in popularity. Formerly, only in the headlines when it’s time for a major political event, such as the US presidential elections, the introduction of sports contracts has changed the game. For those interested in forecasting future outcomes, they’re now a viable alternative that’s available across much of the US.
Kalshi’s reach has also expanded via a deal with Robinhood, opening prediction markets to users of that platform who have an approved derivatives account with options trading enabled. Just like with Kalshi, offerings are subject to change based on happenings at the state level and what could happen as a result of any CFTC regulatory changes.
For now, Kalshi has the sports prediction market field mainly to itself, but that’s also subject to change. DraftKings is reportedly considering a purchase of RailBird, which has been granted DCM status by the CFTC. Meanwhile, Polymarket is returning to the US after acquiring CFTC-regulated exchange QCEX. Crypto.com also offers limited sports contract trading.
In short, we could be in the first quarter of a game that will decide the overall prediction market landscape. For this season, Kalshi is a viable option for football forecasters in many states. If you’re on the hunt for something new as you look forward to the NFL and college football season, Kalshi’s innovative approach and the flexibility it offers could be the ticket.
