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NBA Pacific Division Futures: Warriors are Astronomical Favorites in 2017-18

Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you already know how good the Golden State Warriors are. What you may not know is just how exceptional oddsmakers think they are.

The reigning champion Warriors haven’t offered much value in futures markets for years now, but it’s reached a new level this season. Bovada is dealing the Dubs at a ridiculous price of -100000 odds! Yes, you read that correctly. Minus one hundred thousand. In my three and a half years of working in this industry, I have never seen a larger futures line.

For the record, if you risked $1000 on Stephen Curry and company to win the Pacific banner in 2017-18, you’d be rewarded with a single dollar. Here’s some advice: don’t do that. Elsewhere in the division are the Los Angeles Clippers (+2000), Los Angeles Lakers (+3000), Phoenix Suns (+10000) and Sacramento Kings (+10000).

When you look at the roster from top to bottom, it’s easy to understand why the Warriors are getting such a ridiculous price from books. With a starting five of Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin "Social Media Savant" Durant, Draymond Green and Zaza Pachulia, Golden State’s lineup is bordering on video game territory. The Western Conference has vastly improved this year, but the Warriors are undoubtedly still the class of the conference.

So, does anyone else stand a chance in the Pacific? Kevin Garnett may have told us anything is possible, but I think we’ve found the exception in this regard. There are plenty more interesting races, which I’ve profiled on OddsShark’s NBA page.

In the meantime, here’s a preview of the rest of the league trying to match up against Golden State:

2017-18 NBA Pacific Division Odds
Golden State Warriors-100000
Los Angeles Clippers+2000
Los Angeles Lakers+3300
Phoenix Suns+10000
Sacramento Kings+10000

Odds as of October 5 at Bovada

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The NBA’s Pacific Division is the definition of the term “two-team race.” The Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Clippers have been playing some lights-out basketball over the last month, as the Dubs (16-2) have a slight edge over the Clips (14-5) for the divisional lead as of November 30.

At BetOnline the Warriors remain -1000 chalk to win the banner, with the Clippers (+600), Los Angeles Lakers (+10000), Sacramento Kings (+20000) and Phoenix Suns (+50000) also available to wager on.

That’s a far cry from the astronomical -10000 price Golden State had before the season. Back then I wrote about how that number was downright silly, as no one in their right mind was going to risk $100 to win a measly dollar. Oddsmakers were clearly trying to attract money for other teams, and the Clippers’ odds have since fallen from +1000 to +600 as a result.

Golden State is absolutely terrifying, and I wouldn’t feel comfortable betting against a team that features Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Kevin Durant. But since the price has already been adjusted so much, it still doesn’t make much sense to back them in this regard due to the meager return.

After a 14-2 start, the Clippers had dropped three in a row at the time of writing, but that doesn’t mean bettors holding Clips futures tickets should fret. L.A. has the sixth-best offense in the league (108.6 points per game) and the seventh-best defense (98.9 points allowed per game), and they'll still be a top team in the Western Conference when all is said and done.

As for the Lakers, Kings and Suns? You know the old saying: there’s always next year!

2016-17 NBA Pacific Division Odds
Golden State Warriors-1000
Los Angeles Clippers+600
Los Angeles Lakers+10000
Sacramento Kings+20000
Phoenix Suns+50000

Odds as of November 30 at BetOnline

Archived Articles

When it comes to betting the NBA’s Pacific Division, you essentially have two options: the Golden State Warriors and the Los Angeles Clippers.

It's no surprise to see which team is way out in front of divisional odds at Bovada. Good luck finding any value in backing the Warriors, though. The shop has tabbed Golden State as -10000 chalk to win the Pacific, meaning you have to risk $100 to win $1. It's a bold strategy, Cotton. Let's see how it plays out.

That’s great news for Clippers backers. L.A. comes in at +1000 – a fantastic number if you think Doc Rivers’ crew can topple their mighty Californian counterparts. The Clips won the division in 2013 and 2014, but the Warriors have stolen away the banner in each of the past two seasons.

What can sports bettors make of this? The price of -10000 is a staggeringly high number, even for the mighty Warriors. Adding superstar Kevin Durant to a roster that already included Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green is downright terrifying, but oddsmakers are clearly trying to protect themselves in this regard.

As we saw in LeBron James’ first season in South Beach, super-teams don’t always start off on the right foot. It’s going to take some time for Durant to fit in with his new teammates, and all four of the aforementioned players will have to learn how to share the ball appropriately. I think the Warriors will once again claim the Pacific, but it won’t be by as wide a margin as the odds indicate.

The Los Angeles Lakers (+10000), Sacramento Kings (+15000) and Phoenix Suns (+20000) aren’t even on the radar at this point. Unless you’re a believer in the longest of long shots, stay away from these cellar-dwelling franchises this year.

2016-17 NBA Pacific Division Odds
Golden State Warriors-10000
Los Angeles Clippers+1000
Los Angeles Lakers+10000
Sacramento Kings+15000
Phoenix Suns+20000

Odds as of October 26 at Bovada

Archived Articles