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Odds to Win the AFC East: With Brady Gone, the Bills’ Time is Now

Odds to Win the AFC East

The New England Patriots have dominated the AFC East for two decades, but with Tom Brady leaving Massachusetts in favor of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the door is wide open for another team to surpass the Pats and claim the AFC East in 2020.

Sportsbooks have set the Buffalo Bills as the +125 favorites to win the division at Bovada. The Patriots (+130), New York Jets (+800) and Miami Dolphins (+800) are behind Buffalo at the shop.

Bills Need to Capitalize on Brady’s Departure

Brady has terrorized fans in Upstate New York for years, but with Touchdown Tom off to Tampa, the Bills are in an excellent position to establish themselves as legitimate contenders in the AFC. Josh Allen took a significant step forward in his sophomore season, and the Bills went back to the playoffs after a 10-6 showing.

Buffalo has had a busy offseason so far. The Bills have a new No. 1 wide receiver in town after trading for star wideout Stefon Diggs from Minnesota, and the signings of Vernon Butler, Quinton Jefferson and Mario Addison will make the Bills a more competitive bunch. I really like Buffalo’s +125 price to win the East for the first time since 1995.

What Now for the Patriots?

New England is undoubtedly the model of success in the modern-day NFL, yet we’re not used to seeing the Patriots in the state of flux they’re in right now. Since 2001, the Pats have failed to win the AFC East on only two occasions – in 2002 and 2008.

Brady’s decision to leave the only franchise he’s ever known in favor of the Buccaneers has sent shock waves throughout the NFL, and it’s evident that oddsmakers are carefully approaching the situation regarding the team. Usually, the Pats’ odds to win the division are in the -800 ballpark before the year begins, so their +130 price speaks volumes.

Second-year quarterback Jarrett Stidham is sitting atop the depth chart, with Brian Hoyer, Brian Lewerke and J’Mar Smith behind him. If Stidham opens the season as the starter and struggles, we could see the Pats make a trade for a veteran QB.

Oddsmakers clearly believe the Patriots will remain competitive without Brady, as head coach Bill Belichick is the undisputed fave to win the NFL Coach of the Year Award.

Jets Need to Put Last Year in the Rear-View Mirror

Seemingly everything that could’ve gone wrong for the Jets in 2019 did. Sam Darnold getting mononucleosis and missing the majority of the first half of the season didn’t help matters, and New York failed to make up the ground it had lost when Darnold came back.

The Jets’ 7-9 record was inflated by some meaningless late-season wins. Adam Gase’s first year with the team was a disappointing one, so it’s going to be important for the Jets to rebound in order to save his job. I’m not convinced this roster has what it takes to be a serious competitor in the AFC, so I’d pass on backing them to win the division at +800.

The Future is Looking Bright for the Dolphins

The Dolphins looked like they were headed toward being the worst team in the NFL last September, but Ryan Fitzpatrick overtaking Josh Rosen for the No. 1 QB job made them much more competitive. Despite playing with a roster sorely lacking in talent, the Fins played hard for first-year head coach Brian Flores – a good sign for any rebuilding team.

Miami has been active in free agency, bringing in Byron Jones, Kyle Van Noy, Shaq Lawson and Jordan Howard. The Dolphins selected Tua Tagovailoa with the fifth overall pick in the draft and now have a potential franchise QB at their disposal.

The Dolphins will be a much-improved bunch, but don’t expect them to challenge for the division title just yet.

Looking for more football betting information? Head over to our NFL page.

Odds to Win The 2020 AFC East
Buffalo Bills+125
New England Patriots+130
New York Jets+800
Miami Dolphins+800

Odds as of May 12 at Bovada

Understanding Odds to Win the AFC

When you take a trip to any NFL sportsbook to make a futures bet – more on that later – you’ll notice the odds laid out the same way they are in the above table. Teams with a minus sign (-) preceding their odds are favorites. The rest are underdogs, which you can see because of the plus sign (+). However, when divisions are tight or there are no clear front-runners, the team with the lowest odds is considered the fave.

Let’s say you’re on board with the Bills and believe they have the best chances of winning the AFC East. If you were to lay down $100, you’d get a payout of $225 – you get your $100 back along with your winnings of $125.

On the other hand, that same $100 on the Dolphins would give you a payout of $900 – your original $100 is returned along with your winnings of $800. Bets on underdogs are riskier, which is why you get a bigger reward. Yet, these teams have unfavorable odds for a reason and you shouldn’t bet on them blindly hoping to make some major coin.

Our Odds Calculator will show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.

What is an NFL Futures Bet?

To wager on AFC East odds, you’d be making a futures bet. This is a bet made on events that are yet to happen. Technically, all sports betting is made on events that take place in time. However, a bet like this could be made weeks or even months in advance. NFL divisional odds are available as early as the preseason and you can bet on them at any moment before the season ends.

If you see odds you like, you should take them early. Oddsmakers move the odds as players succumb to injuries, coaches are fired and teams surge in the standings.