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Odds To Win The AFC East: Patriots or Bills, Who Ya Got?

AFC East Betting Odds December 9, 2019 Tom Brady

Going into Week 16 of the NFL regular season, there are a few divisions that are still up for grabs and one, in particular, is the AFC East. But the New England Patriots are seen as a virtual lock to take the division crown again, according to oddsmakers.

Online sportsbook Bovada has the Patriots at -5000 to win the AFC for the 17th time in 18 years, which you might think is kind of insane considering the Pats host the next team on the list, the Buffalo Bills, in Week 16 and only one loss separates the two teams.

The Bills come in at +1200 because in order to win the division they would need to beat the Patriots, knock off the Jets in Week 17 and have the Patriots also lose in Week 17 at home to the Dolphins.

Patriots Odds Have Been Huge All Season

The 2019 NFL season has been a bit of a roller-coaster for bettors with the ebbs and flows of thinking the New England Patriots will storm to the Super Bowl to now thinking they will struggle to get out of the first round.

For reference, here are some checkpoints in the 2019 season for the Patriots’ odds to win the AFC East:

New England Patriots Odds To Win AFC East in 2019
Week 9-2500
Week 16-5000

Odds as of December 18 at BetOnline

As you can see, New England has been an overwhelming favorite throughout the entire year. It’s worth noting that after they beat the Bills in Week 4, New England’s odds to win the division never dropped below -1000 following that game. 

Take Bills Moneyline Instead of Division

As much as I would love to endorse taking a flier on a +1200 prop, the reality is that the Buffalo Bills have far too much to overcome to surpass the Patriots at this stage to win the division. As I noted above, the Patriots have to lose both of their remaining games for the Bills to even get a sniff of the division title and that seems unlikely.

However, what doesn’t seem unlikely is the Bills going into Gillette Stadium and winning outright as 6.5-point dogs. The Bills are 4-1 SU in their last five games and look significantly better than they did in their Week 4 matchup in Buffalo that saw them lose 16-10. With their moneyline odds hovering around +230, I’d opt to take that instead and get yourself a decent payday.

It’s also worth mentioning the Dolphins are 2-16 SU in 18 games at Gillette Stadium in the Brady-Belichick era with Miami’s last win there coming in 2008. Asking the lowly Dolphins to beat the Patriots in Week 17 in Foxborough would be asking for a Christmas miracle and unlike Al Michaels, I don’t believe in miracles. 

Odds to Win The 2019 AFC East
New England Patriots-5000
Buffalo Bills+1200

Odds as of December 18 at Bovada

Understanding Odds to Win the AFC

If you look at the above table you’ll see how the odds are displayed at the sportsbook. In this case the Patriots are the clear favorite because of the minus sign (-). The other teams are the underdogs. You can tell this because of the plus sign (+). This is universal across all betting sites.

Let’s say you’re on board with New England and believe they have the best chances of winning the AFC east. If you were to lay down $100, you’d get a payout of $104 – you get your $100 back along with your winnings of $4.

On the other hand, that same $100 on the Dolphins would give you a payout of $100,100 – your original $100 is returned along with your winnings of $100,000. Bets on underdogs are riskier, which is why you get a bigger reward. Yet, these teams have unfavorable odds for a reason and you shouldn’t bet on them blindly hoping to make some major coin.

Our Odds Calculator will show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.

What is an NFL Futures Bet?

To wager on AFC East odds, you’d be making a futures bet. This is a bet made on events that are yet to happen. Technically, all sports betting is made on events that take place in time. However, a bet like this could be made weeks or even months in advance. NFL divisional odds are available as early as the preseason and you can bet on them at any moment before the season ends.

If you see odds you like, you should take them early. Oddsmakers move the odds as players succumb to injuries, coaches are fired and teams surge in the standings.