Though it has been one of the worst divisions in the NFL in recent years in terms of the quality of the teams, the AFC South crown has been passed around a lot in the last few seasons.
The Titans won the division the last two years, the Texans won the two years before that and the Jaguars won it five years ago.
At the beginning of the season the Colts (-130) were favored in AFC South odds to win the division for the first time since 2014, with the Titans (+175) following close behind. Online sportsbooks is not expecting the Jaguars (+750) or Texans (+3000) to be overly competitive in AFC South odds this season. A few weeks into the season and the odds have changed dramatically.
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Who Leads AFC South Betting Odds?
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | -165 |
| Tennessee Titans | +400 |
| Indianapolis Colts | +575 |
| Houston Texans | +625 |
Odds as of May 11th, 2023 18:49pm EDT. |
AFC South Odds: Indianapolis Colts (+200)
The big news for the Colts this offseason was the addition of veteran QB and former NFL MVP Matt Ryan.
Ryan is 37, coming off his lowest yardage and touchdown totals in several years, and posted the lowest QBR and adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of his career last season.
However, he should provide some stability that the Colts didn’t get from Carson Wentz on or off the field last season, and there’s reason to believe Ryan can be better than he was last season with an improved offensive line, defense and run game in Indy compared to Atlanta.
Running back Jonathan Taylor will again be the focus of the offense – taking the pressure off Ryan – after leading the league in rushing yards and touchdowns last season.
The defense is a solid unit that added starters at corner, safety and defensive end this offseason.
We don’t see the Colts as a world-beater in a loaded AFC, but there’s no reason they can’t win the division. They are a decent bet at -130.
AFC South Odds: Tennessee Titans (+200)
Tennessee ran away with the division last season and finished with the best record in the AFC at 12-5 to earn the No. 1 seed. The Titans even beat the Rams, Chiefs, Bills, 49ers and Colts (twice) last season.
So why aren’t they favored to even win their division this season?
The most obvious answer is that they lost quite a bit of talent.
Star receiver A.J. Brown was traded to Philly, top guard Rodger Saffold is gone and they lost a couple pieces from the defense, including top pass rusher Harold Landry to injury.
Former Ram Robert Woods and first-round pick Treylon Burks were added to replace Brown at receiver, but the Titans don’t have any other big-time additions to their starting 22. There also seems to be a thought among NFL analysts that they overachieved last season and were one of the worst No. 1 seeds we’ve ever seen after they were bounced in their first playoff game by Cincinnati.
We see the fatigue around this team as a buying opportunity. They still have Derrick Henry terrorizing defenses, a good quarterback in Ryan Tannehill who protects the football, and a great coach in Mike Vrabel. You could do much worse than betting on the Titans in AFC South odds at +175.
AFC South Odds: Jacksonville Jaguars (+160)
The Jaguars will be better this season than last. Frankly, it would be hard to do worse.
But after firing Urban Meyer after just 13 games last season (a 2-11 start), the Jags are in line to benefit more from a coaching change than any team in football.
In steps former Super Bowl-winning coach Doug Pederson to right the ship, and though there are plenty of holes on this roster, things are looking up again for the Jags.
I believe Trevor Lawrence will take a step forward this season after a tumultuous rookie campaign, and the Jags added a big ticket in receiver Christian Kirk to help him out.
Running back Travis Etienne, a first-round pick in 2021, will also be back after missing his entire rookie year with an injury, and we like some of the other pieces on the offensive line and at receiver.
The defense will likely be poor again, but two first-round picks at inside and outside linebacker (including first overall pick Travon Walker) should provide a big boost along with new starting corner Darious Williams, who was added from the Super Bowl-winning Rams.
The Jags won’t win the AFC South barring a meteoric rise from Lawrence, but we are bullish on their outlook this season.
AFC South Odds: Houston Texans (+3000)
The Texans are +3000 for a reason.
After finally trading Deshaun Watson, Houston is loaded with draft capital. But the Texans don’t have a ton of NFL-caliber talent on the team this season that will allow them to be competitive.
Bringing in Lovie Smith to coach the team was also a questionable move given his history in the league, and the team’s defense is one of the league’s worst on paper.
Houston did add a couple nice pieces this offseason on the offensive line and at corner, however, and we think QB Davis Mills is a little underrated.
Mills was easily the best rookie QB last season outside of Mac Jones and he should be able to play relatively efficiently behind a pretty good offensive line and with underrated weaponry.
Overall, there just isn’t enough here for the Texans to win a lot of games, but we like the OVER on their projected win total of 4.5.
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Understanding Odds To Win The AFC South
When you take a trip to any NFL sportsbook to make a futures bet – more on that later – you’ll notice the odds laid out the same way they are in the above table. Teams with a minus sign (-) preceding their odds are favorites. The rest are underdogs, which you can see because of the plus sign (+). However, when divisions are tight or there are no clear front-runners, the team with the lowest odds is considered the fave.
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Let’s say you’re on board with the Titans and believe they have the best chances of winning the AFC South. If you were to lay down $100, you’d get a payout of $275 – you get your $100 back along with your winnings of $175.
On the other hand, that same $100 on the Jaguars would give you a payout of $800 – your original $100 is returned along with your winnings of $700. Bets on underdogs are riskier, which is why you get a bigger reward. Yet, these teams have unfavorable odds for a reason and you shouldn’t bet on them blindly hoping to make some major coin.
Our Odds Calculator will show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.
What Is An NFL Futures Bet?
To wager on AFC South odds, you’d be making a futures bet. This is a bet made on events that have yet to happen. Technically, all sports betting is made on events that take place in time. However, a bet like this could be made weeks or even months in advance. NFL divisional odds are available as early as the preseason and you can bet on them at any moment before the season ends.
If you see odds you like, you should take them early. Oddsmakers move the odds as players succumb to injuries, coaches are fired and teams surge in the standings.
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