Prediction Markets Today
The Winter Olympics continue this week with one of the headline events entering the prediction markets spotlight. The Men’s Ice Hockey tournament kicks into high gear as the chase for gold continues. Below, we break down the field and probabilities at Kalshi and Polymarket. We’ll also dig into the latest government shutdown and how long this one may last, plus other trending prediction markets that traders are zeroing in on.
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Sports Prediction Markets
Canada, Finland, Slovakia, and the United States have already punched their tickets to Wednesday’s Men’s Ice Hockey quarterfinals. Four more will join them following Tuesday’s qualifiers. Here’s where the probabilities to win gold stand at Polymarket.
It’s the same story at Kalshi: Canada on top, the US second, and the rest of the field at 8% or less.
Seven of the 12 teams are in the extreme longshot range and trading for 1 cent. For the other five, pricing is in close range on the two major prediction market platforms with just minor differences.
| Team | Kalshi - Yes | Polymarket - Yes |
| Canada | $0.54 | $0.56 |
| United States | $0.32 | $0.30 |
| Finland | $0.08 | $0.08 |
| Sweden | $0.05 | $0.06 |
| Slovakia | $0.02 | $0.01 |
If you expect Team Canada to get it done, you can get 2 cents more value per contract at Kalshi. For those banking on the U.S., it’s the opposite, with an extra 2 cents to be found over at Polymarket.
Kalshi is also going beyond the gold market with contracts on who will hit the podium and grab a medal of some kind. Eight of the 12 nations are trading at 9 cents or higher. Here’s the current yes/no pricing for those squads.
- Canada: $0.98/$0.03
- United States: $0.77/$0.24
- Finland: $0.57/$0.44
- Slovakia: $0.25/$0.77
- Sweden: $0.24/$0.79
- Switzerland: $0.20/$0.82
- Germany: $0.18/$0.85
- Czechia: $0.09/$0.92
Polymarket has separate markets open for silver and bronze medal winners.
- Silver: U.S. ($0.41), Canada ($0.28), Finland ($0.23), Rest of field (less than $0.10)
- Bronze: Finland ($0.33), Sweden ($0.17), Slovakia ($0.14), Rest of field ($0.12 or less)
Add it all up, and expectations are heavily pointing toward a Canada vs. U.S. final, with Finland favored to get the bronze.
Trading Angle: Olympic Hockey Gold
This is the first time that NHL stars have competed at the Winter Olympics since the 2014 Sochi Games. Canada took down Sweden to capture the gold, while Finland bested the U.S. in the bronze medal game. From 1998 through 2014, NHL players hit the Olympic ice five times.
Canada grabbed the gold three times, with Sweden and Czechia winning once. The U.S. netted two silvers over that span, failing to hit the podium the three other times. In the total medal count, Finland leads with four: one silver and three bronze.
In the preliminaries, Canada skated through with no trouble to a perfect 3-0 mark, outscoring opponents 20-3. The U.S. was also 3-0, with a cumulative score of 16-5. Finland, 2-1 in preliminaries, has a matching goal differential of +11.
Since all other teams in the field have a differential of +2 down to -15, it’s not tough to see why these three squads are the top choices. Canada and the U.S. do appear to be on a collision course, but Finland upsetting the apple cart can’t be ruled out.
If we look back to last season’s thrilling 4 Nations Face Off, Canada and the U.S. both notched wins over Finland. In the final, Canada avenged a 3-1 loss to the U.S. in the round-robin stage with a 3-2 overtime win on a Connor McDavid goal.
McDavid is the scoring leader for this tourney with nine points - two goals and seven assists. Three other Team Canada players have notched five or more points: Macklin Celebrini (6), Sidney Crosby (5), and Nathan MacKinnon (5).
The U.S. is loaded with firepower as well, with Auston Matthews and Matthew Tkachuk leading the way thus far with five points each. In net, Connor Hellebuyck (US) is slightly ahead of Jordan Binnington (CAN) on save percentage, 95.24 over 95.00.
Barring slip-ups this week, the potential is there for another all-time classic between two powerhouses. We’ll go with Canada to grab the gold and pick up contracts at $0.56 at Polymarket, and cover more bases, buying Finland to win a medal at Kalshi for $0.57.
Political Prediction Markets
On Saturday, a partial U.S. government shutdown went into effect. This comes on the heels of a four-day shutdown just a few weeks ago, which ended with a two-week continuing resolution. Congress was unable to reach a long-term deal once again, and here we are. Polymarket traders are expecting this one to last longer.
The sentiment at Kalshi is within the same range.
This battle comes down to an impasse over funding for the Department of Homeland Security, with a background including the Democrats demanding changes to immigration operations. Agencies that fall under the DHS umbrella will not have funding until the matter is settled. According to current prediction market sentiment, this one could last for 20 days or longer.
Trading Insight: Government Shutdown Length
Congress is on recess until Feb. 23. Said another way, the chances of anything resembling progress this week are minute. In addition, President Trump is scheduled to deliver his State of the Union address on Feb. 24.
After Congress returns, a quick turnaround deal seems unlikely, providing an opportunity for the commander-in-chief to turn up the pressure in front of a global audience. Will that be enough to get the two sides closer together?
Maybe not directly, but public perception and sentiment will become even more apparent from there. If the president’s speech gets high marks, Democrats will likely be more inclined to look toward a face-saving deal, while a poorly-received performance could lead to more heel digging.
On the date of the speech, we’ll be at 11 days for the shutdown. The Kalshi market for at least 10 days is priced at $0.97, while Polymarket’s contract for 10+ days is at the same price point. The sites have differing approaches for the next benchmark, but the same pricing.
- Kalshi, At Least 15 days: Yes, $0.79. No, $0.22
- Polymarket, 14+ days: Yes, $0.79, No, $0.22
We’ll go with “no” contracts at $0.22 for both, and look for a deal to be reached by Friday, Feb. 27. That’s enough time for the SOTU to be digested, a few days of bickering and headlines, and a wrap before another weekend of inactivity.
Trending Prediction Markets
- Who will leave Trump’s cabinet next? Pam Bondi remains the leading choice of Kalshi traders at 23 cents. The battle for the next spot in the list is tight between Kristi Noem (18 cents) and Howard Lutnick (17 cents).
- How high will Bitcoin get in February? Currently trading at a little over $67k, the crypto bellwether is having trouble going North follwing the recent drop. The price leader for this one is “above $80k,” trading for 15 cents at Kalshi.
- Number of rate cuts in 2026? The chances of no change at the March meeting remain high according to prediction markets. At Kalshi, you can take a longer view on the year as a whole. The current price leader is “exactly 3 cuts” at 26 cents.
- 2026 Winter Olympics - 2nd Most Medals: Norway is the overwhelming favorite to win the most gold and total medals. The chase for second place is more competitive. Polymarket pricing has the US (70 cents) favored ahead of host country Italy (26 cents).
- Oscars 2026 - Best Picture Winner: About a month to go until the Academy Awards, but there has already been over $15 million in volume traded at Polymarket. One Battle After Another (76 cents) is a hefty favorite over Sinners (14 cents).
Looking Ahead: NBA & NHL Stretch Runs
The NBA’s All-Star break wraps up this week, while the NHL’s Olympic journey is also winding down. The stretch runs and playoff pushes for both sports are right around the corner, marking a perfect time to check out prices and favorites in key categories.
| Market | Kalshi - Yes/No | Polymarket - Yes/No |
| NBA Finals | Oklahoma City ($0.40/$0.61) | Oklahoma City ($0.36/$0.65) |
| NBA MVP | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($0.57/$0.44) | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($0.59/$0.42) |
| Stanley Cup | Colorado Avalanche ($0.25/$0.76) | Colorado Avalanche ($0.23/$0.77) |
| Hart Trophy | Nathan MacKinnon ($0.64/$0.37) | Nathan MacKinnon ($0.62/$0.41) |
Each market has a clear favorite for now, and you can find a few pennies difference in contract prices just by shopping around. Meanwhile, value hunters who think the hype on the Thunder and Avalanche isn’t warranted have plenty of potential angles to explore.
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