Tom Aspinall vs Ciryl Gane Odds & Picks - UFC 321

Tom Aspinall is a -400 favorite against Ciryl Gane (+300) in the main event of UFC 321 on October 25 in Abu Dhabi.

Tom Aspinall's reign as undisputed heavyweight champion will officially begin at Etihad Arena, where he’ll defend his title for the first time. The Aspinall vs Gane odds reflect what fans and oddsmakers already suspect: Aspinall’s speed, power, and well-rounded game make him a dangerous matchup for just about anyone.

Here are our Aspinall vs Gane odds and picks for this heavyweight showdown.

Aspinall vs Gane Odds

Aspinall vs Gane Odds
Fighter	Odds
Tom Aspinall	-400
Ciryl Gane	+300

What Happened to Jones vs Aspinall?

Aspinall was promoted to undisputed heavyweight champion after Jon Jones announced his retirement earlier this year. Originally, a unification bout between Jones and Aspinall was the biggest fight the UFC could make, but financial hurdles and Jones’ departure ended that possibility.

Instead, the division now belongs to Aspinall. After capturing interim gold with a knockout win over Sergei Pavlovich in late 2023, he cemented his status by avenging his lone UFC loss, stopping Curtis Blaydes in the first round of their July co-main event in Manchester. UFC 321 will mark his first official title defense and the UFC’s 10th event at Etihad Arena since 2021.

How To Bet Aspinall

Aspinall to win in UNDER 1.5 rounds remains the sharp play. He’s faster than Gane, more explosive, and significantly more dangerous on the ground. Gane’s striking is smooth but lacks the knockout bite needed to deter Aspinall’s forward pressure.

If you want to talk numbers, those are all in Aspinall's favor as well. The Englishman lands 8.07 significant strikes per minute (to Gane's 5.26), indicating the magnitude of his high-volume gameplan. And that early flurry gets the job done, as Aspinall's 2:02 average fight time is the lowest in UFC history.

Even if Aspinall doesn’t get the quick knockout, his grappling and submission game will take over. Gane’s defensive grappling has been a clear weakness (43% takedown defense), and against someone as aggressive and precise as Aspinall, that’s a major problem.

How To Bet Gane

Backing Gane at +300 means betting on survival and hoping for a drawn-out, technical kickboxing match. The Frenchman is quite good at avoiding serious damage, absorbing just 2.23 significant strikes per minute, the third-fewest among active heavyweights. His best shot is using movement and range to frustrate Aspinall, dragging the fight past the early storm.

However, Gane’s past struggles against strong grapplers (see the Jones finish) make that strategy difficult. Unless he lands something unexpected, his path to victory is narrow and relies heavily on avoiding takedowns and counters.

Aspinall vs Gane Pick

Aspinall is the clear pick. He’s sharper, more versatile, and has shown that he can finish elite heavyweights quickly. At -400, the moneyline is steep, but the stylistic mismatch still leans heavily in his favor. Take Aspinall to win UNDER 1.5 rounds for the best combination of value and likelihood. That gets you to +120, which is mighty good value on a -400 favorite.