Makhachev vs Della Maddalena Odds & Picks

Islam Makhachev returns as the headliner for UFC 322 at Madison Square Garden on November 15. This time, the promotion's pound-for-pound champ faces Jack Della Maddalena in a welterweight title fight. The bout marks Islam's long-awaited move to 170 pounds.

The odds have Makhachev as a −290 favorite at FanDuel, with Della Maddalena as the +225 underdog.

Here are my Islam vs JDM odds and picks for this fight.

Makhachev vs Della Maddalena Odds

Islam vs JDM Odds
Fighter	Odds
Islam Makhachev	-290
Jack Della Maddalena	+225

Why is Islam favored?

Makhachev has ruled the lightweight division with suffocating grappling and elite control, consistently shutting down his opponents’ game plans. Now he's making the jump to welterweight, a bold move that makes sense given his dominant run. His ability to control where the fight takes place has been a significant factor in his success.

That said, moving up in weight is no small task. He’ll be dealing with bigger, stronger opponents who can test his strength in ways lightweights couldn’t. How well he handles that size difference will determine whether he can continue to dominate in a new division.

How To Bet Makhachev

Makhachev’s path to victory still runs through his grappling, but against Jack Della Maddalena, the test is tougher than some may think. JDM demonstrated excellent takedown defense against Belal Muhammad at UFC 315, remaining calm under pressure and effectively scrambling out of bad positions on the ground. Still, Islam is a different beast.

Makhachev doesn’t just shoot for takedowns; he chains them together, uses the clinch, and works his opponents into the fence with precision. He also doesn’t waste dominant positions. Where Belal let JDM off the hook, Islam is likely to capitalize and find a finish.

I expect Della Maddalena to hang in there, but my best bet is Makhachev by submission. If the odds swing closer to the event, I’ll also consider an Islam by submission/decision double-chance bet.

How To Bet Della Maddalena

Della Maddalena’s striking was crisp and composed at UFC 315, where he showed both technical precision and toughness under fire. He’s long, strong, and hits like a truck — qualities that make him a real problem for Makhachev on the feet. If this fight stays standing, JDM has a clear edge. His timing, power, and ability to mix up his shots could give Islam real trouble over five rounds.

The challenge is keeping it there. Islam is relentless with his grappling (3.20 takedowns per 15 minutes) and chains his attempts better than anyone in the game. If Della Maddalena can fend off a few early takedowns — as he did against Belal, stuffing six of nine — and make Makhachev work, he suddenly finds himself on level ground. A Della Maddalena win is likely to come by KO or a statement decision.

Makhachev vs Della Maddalena Betting Pick

Islam by submission is my pick. JDM is tough enough to survive early grappling exchanges, but over time, Islam’s chain wrestling and clinch pressure should drag him into deep water and open up a submission opportunity.