Colby Covington is a small underdog in a UFC welterweight fight vs Leon Edwards.

Edwards vs Covington Odds & Pick: Will Chaos Reign At UFC 296?

Let chaos reign!

The welterweight strap is up for grabs in the UFC 296 main event, where Leon Edwards defends as a slight -125 favorite against two-time challenger Colby Covington (EVEN).

Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington Odds

Edwards vs Covington Odds
Leon Edwards-125
Colby CovingtonEVEN

Odds as of Dec. 6

Per our odds calculator, Edwards' -125 status equates to a win probability of 55.56%, and a $100 bet on him pays $180. Covington gets a 50% chance and a $100 bet yields $200. 

Edwards vs Covington Preview

Will Colby's foul-mouthed, in-your-face strategy break the confident Englishman? Or will the belt remain in Birmingham, where Edwards has a wave of support behind him?

How Covington Wins

Since Edwards paces himself well, Covington doesn't have a breezy path to a cardio victory. While Colby's gas tank will give him an advantage, his best strategy for victory involves getting Leon on his butt early.

Covington's striking always sets up his wrestling. "Chaos" is smart, always thinking a step ahead. But Edwards is intelligent, too, capable of pummeling to get underhooks, even when he's pressed on the cage. 

To win this bout, Colby needs to be more creative than Kamaru Usman was vs Edwards at UFC 286. Conventional takedowns won't crack the champ Edwards, so Covington must open things up with strikes to the body or trip takedowns. Takedown spamming won't result in a title fight victory.

How Edwards Wins

Covington, by nature of his ever-forward fight style, isn't a master of disguise. It's very obvious why he's encroaching — he wants range for a takedown — and he often succeeds. Edwards needs to use that buffer period when Chaos is waiting for his window, to rack up damage.

At UFC 272, Jorge Masvidal dropped Colby with a counter right hook, which looked great in a wild exchange, but was actually set up with a few feints to the body earlier. That is precisely how Edwards wins. Think about it: "Rocky" twitched and felt out Usman for four-and-a-half rounds at UFC 278 before folding him with a fake left hand and then a high kick.

Leon has a high fight IQ, and Covington, while very talented, exposes his tendencies on occasion. 

Leon Edwards vs Colby Covington Pick

I've never been a huge Leon fan, but he's capable of defending his belt. Covington has a cardio and grappling edge, sure, but I'm not confident he possesses the offensive firepower to knock Leon off his game.

Edwards is focused. A few takedown defenses could radically alter the momentum of this bout. I'll count on that and an Edwards decision victory.

Pick: Leon Edwards to win (-125); Fight Goes The Distance (TBD); Value bet on Edwards by Decision (TBD)

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