Damir Ismagulov is favored over Grant Dawson at UFC Fight Night on July 1

Ismagulov vs Dawson Odds & Picks: Has The Kazakh Learned His Lesson?

Lightweights Damir Ismagulov and Grant Dawson throw down in the co-main event Saturday, warming up the Vegas crowd for a UFC Fight Night main event between Sean Strickland and Abus Magomedov.

The prelims at the Apex start at 4 p.m. ET, while the main card kicks off at 7 p.m.

Ismagulov (-125) is a slight favorite vs Dawson. 

UFC Fight Night: Ismagulov vs Dawson Betting Odds

Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson Odds
Damir Ismagulov-125
Grant Dawson+100

Odds as of June 28

Per our odds calculator, a $100 bet on Ismagulov at -125 odds (55.56% implied chance) pays out $180. The same $100 on Dawson at +100 (50% implied chance) pays out $200.

How To Watch UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Magomedov

Don't worry fight fans, this is our last Fight Night before an excellent pay-per-view at UFC 290.

  • Date/Time: July 1, 4 p.m. ET
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
  • Arena: UFC Apex
  • Where to Watch: ESPN, Cable Provider

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Magomedov Full Card & Betting Odds

Here's Saturday's lineup in Vegas.

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs Magomedov Fight Card Odds
  • Main Card
  • Middleweight Main Event – Sean Strickland (-138) vs Abus Magomedov (+110)
  • Lightweight – Damir Ismagulov (-125) vs Grant Dawson (+100)
  • Welterweight – Max Griffin (+200) vs Michael Morales (-250)
  • Women's Flyweight – Ariane Lipski (+180) vs Melissa Gatto (-220)
  • Lightweight – Benoit Saint-Denis (+250) vs Ismael Bonfim (-334)
  • Middleweight – Bruno Ferreira (-175) vs Nursulton Ruziboev (+150)
  • Prelims
  • Welterweight – Kevin Lee (+170) vs Rinat Fakhretdinev (-200)
  • Women's Featherweight – Yana Santos (+140) vs Karol Rosa (-170)
  • Women's Flyweight – Ivana Petrovic (-220) vs Luana Carolina (+180)
  • Featherweight – Joanderson Brito (-1200) vs Westin Wilson (+700)
  • Heavyweight – Alexandr Romanov (-138) vs Blagoy Ivanov (+110)
  • Lightweight – Guram Kutateladze (-600) vs Elves Brener (+450)

Odds as of June 28

Damir Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson Tale Of The Tape

FighterDamir IsmagulovGrant Dawson
Record24-2 (5-1 UFC)19-1-1 (7-0-1 UFC)
Avg. Fight Time15:0011:51
Sig. Strikes Per Minute3.783.12
Sig. Strikes Absorbed Per Minute2.512.41
Takedowns Per 15 Minutes1.173.80
Takedown Accuracy28%34%
Takedown Defense75%40%

Ismagulov vs Dawson Preview: Who Will Win?

There are some lightweight rankings at stake here. Let's see what we've got.

How Dawson Wins

When the wrestling fails, try and try again. At a 75% clip, Ismagulov has good but not impenetrable takedown defense. Dawson averages 3.80 takedowns per 15 minutes (that's a lot) and is undefeated in the UFC, largely because he's been able to take down all eight opponents.

He can't quit that strategy, even against a longer opponent in Ismagulov. A submission is Dawson's only hope. 

How Ismagulov Wins

While the Kazakh isn't the most offensive fighter on the roster (all six of his UFC fights have gone the distance), he does a lot of things well. Ismagulov has a very strong chin; he's tough to hit and, as I said earlier, his takedown defense holds up.

"Qazar" got obliterated in his last fight (against wrestler Arman Tsarukyan) because he yielded seven takedowns. That won't cut it. Ismagulov better have drilled his grappling in this training camp. If he didn't, he'll get torched again.

Watch for Ismagulov to defend Dawson's advances with knees and uppercuts. As the rangier fighter, that's always a good strategy.

Damir Ismagulov vs Grant Dawson Pick

I went into this breakdown favoring Ismagulov, but I've changed my mind. Dawson is an impeccable wrestler, and we saw Ismagulov get bullied for 15 minutes in his last fight vs Tsarukyan. The blueprint is there. Now let's hope Dawson shows up ready to attack.

Pick: Dawson to win (+100); Fight Goes The Distance (-200)