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Figueiredo vs Moreno 2 Odds Analysis & Prediction

Deiveson Figueiredo (left) is favored in the Figueiredo vs Moreno 2 odds.

The final UFC pay-per-view in 2020 did not only entertain but left us wanting more as the flyweight championship main event between Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno ended in a majority draw.

As history has shown us in the UFC, if a title fight ends in a draw, there will be a rematch on the horizon and that’s exactly what will take place for these two men when they run it back at UFC 263 on June 12 in the co-main event underneath Israel Adesanya vs Marvin Vettori 2.

Online sportsbook Bovada has released Figueiredo vs Moreno 2 odds and has listed the current champ, Figueiredo, as the -230 favorite with the challenger, Moreno, coming back at +185. That means you would have to wager $230 on a Figueiredo win to profit $100, while a $100 bet on a Moreno victory would profit you $185.

Deiveson Figueiredo vs Brandon Moreno Betting Odds

FighterOdds
Deiveson Figueiredo-230
Brandon Moreno+185

Odds as of June 9 at Bovada

Looking at the Figueiredo vs Moreno 2 odds, our sports betting calculator tells us Figueiredo’s odds of -230 have an implied win probability of 69.70 percent, while Moreno’s odds of +185 have an implied win probability of 35.09 percent.

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Figueiredo vs Moreno Odds Analysis

With these two men squaring off at UFC 256, we have a previous betting line to base the rematch upon. The champ was a -335 betting favorite in the first encounter with the challenger coming back at +255. Not so far off from the odds for the rematch, but we do see it being tighter.

Figueiredo’s original betting odds of -335 had an implied win probability of 77.01 percent, seven points higher than the figure for his rematch odds. Moreno’s odds of +255 in the first bout had an implied win probability of 28.17 percent, seven points lower than the number for the rematch. With the first fight ending in a draw, it makes sense to see a tighter line, but a point deduction and other factors tell me there’s greater betting value on Figueiredo in the rematch.

Figueiredo vs Moreno Prediction

There were two question marks I had regarding the champion that were answered clearly in the fight. The first was conditioning and whether Figueiredo could go five hard rounds. Well, in the fourth round, he had his highest output of 43 strikes, landing 38 significant strikes. The output plummeted in the fifth round, but he also absorbed the fewest number of strikes in that round.

The other question for me was how Figueiredo would survive on the floor against a fairly good grappler. He was taken down four times, but he was clearly much stronger and was able to get back to his feet quickly.

Moreno Showed Great Heart

Moreno had some questions of his own, notably whether he could survive on the feet against a powerful striker if he couldn’t get the fight to the floor. He outstruck Figueiredo in one round and was within 10 strikes in every round, so he clearly held his own in that area.

The challenger had also never fought in championship rounds. Like the champion, he had his best round in the fourth, but he really tailed off in the fifth, with his lowest landed strike percentage and his fewest strikes thrown and landed. That said, one judge somehow scored it for Moreno, leading to the majority draw.

Figueiredo vs Moreno 2 Pick

Both men definitely earned the other’s respect but a couple of other factors were at play in the first fight and I think Figueiredo will not only clearly win the rematch but perhaps get the finish. The first is getting a full training camp in – these two had fought different opponents on the UFC 255 card and it was difficult for the champ to cut weight again in three weeks.

As well, Figueiredo had to go to the hospital with an illness the night before UFC 256 and wasn’t released until 2 o’clock in the morning the day of the fight, surely drained and not 100 percent for the bout. Look for a better performance by “Deus Da Guerra” when they meet again.

Prediction: Deiveson Figueiredo (-230) via knockout