2024 Oscar Odds: Will Oppenheimer Sweep?

I really, really, really want Paul Giamatti to win this award. His performance in The Holdovers was funny, real, and captivating. But, Cillian Murphy was also amazing in Oppenheimer and that film is just getting so much love in the circuit right now he's rightfully the heavy favorite.

Often you can look to the Golden Globes to give some Oscars indications, but with Murphy winning Best Actor in a Drama Motion Picture and Giamatti winning Actor in a Musical or Comedy, we're left guessing. I'd probably steer clear of this market, unless you're all aboard the Giamatti train.

Paul Giamatti wins Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Comedy or Musical for ‘THE HOLDOVERS’ at the Satellite Awards. pic.twitter.com/CfvovYQI1e

— Film Updates (@FilmUpdates) March 4, 2024

Jeffrey Wright Might Be Worth a Look

Like I said, this is a two-horse race (and maybe just one, in Murphy). But, if The Oscars really want to toss a curve at us, Wright's performance in American Fiction was really good. He doesn't deserve to win, or be the favorite, but he should be way higher in these odds than +8000. So maybe that's worth a small bet?

I hate to just be riding the chalk in all these market, but I do think Gladstone is probably going to get the win here. But, unlike some other top awards, I think there's a CHANCE Emma Stone pulls off the upset. Her performance in Poor Things was really good, but I'm not sure +135 is good enough value to back this upset pick. That line implies a 42.55% chance Stone will win Best Actress, and I just don't think it's that high.

Another market with a runaway favorite. We've been talking about Downey Jr. as a sure-thing for this Best Supporting Actor award for so long, that I actually think he's become too favored. Give me Ryan Gosling at a juicy +900 to get the upset of the year.

I'm not sure how much you want to look into the Toronto Film Critics Association or the Australian Academy of Cinema and Television Arts Awards, but Gosling pulled off the Best Supporting Actor upset at those shows (and a few others). Maybe he can do it at The Academy Awards, too?

This is one of the weaker categories at The Oscars this year, but Randolph's performance in The Holdovers was great. She's rightfully going to win this award. I haven't seen Nyad, but I've heard great things about Foster's performance in the film. If you're looking for an underdog bet heree, take the biggest long-shot.

Finally, some value! The newest animated Spider-Man was really good, but not nearly as good as the first version a few years ago. So, I think The Academy goes a different direction this year and gives it to The Boy and the Heron.

This is probably the tightest category I can see on the board, and rightfully so. I think it's basically a toss-up between Poor Things and Barbie, so I'll take the +110 value on Barbie.

I think Napoleon provides some sneaky value here, too. If you want to take a long-shot. The costumes were great in that film, but the lighting of the movie made it really hard to appreciate it.