2024 Oscars Odds

2024 Oscar Odds: Will Oppenheimer Sweep?

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Picture
Poor Things+2000
The Holdovers+2500
The Zone of Interest+2500
Anatomy of a Fall+4000
Killers of the Flower Moon+6500
American Fiction+8000
Past Lives+10000

There have been massive Oscar upsets before, but Oppenheimer for Best Picture is basically a slam dunk this year. Nolan's newest film has been dominating the award show circuit already, and has runaway odds to win The Academy's biggest award this year.

Can Any Film Challenge Oppenheimer?

If you really want to bet on an upset at The Oscars this year, I'd toss small bets on The Holdovers (my personal fav of the year) and Anatomy of a Fall.

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Actor
Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)-1000
Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)+500
Bradley Cooper (Maestro)+1600
Colman Domingo (Rustin)+8000
Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)+8000

I really, really, really want Paul Giamatti to win this award. His performance in The Holdovers was funny, real, and captivating. But, Cillian Murphy was also amazing in Oppenheimer and that film is just getting so much love in the circuit right now he's rightfully the heavy favorite.

Often you can look to the Golden Globes to give some Oscars indications, but with Murphy winning Best Actor in a Drama Motion Picture and Giamatti winning Actor in a Musical or Comedy, we're left guessing. I'd probably steer clear of this market, unless you're all aboard the Giamatti train.

Jeffrey Wright Might Be Worth a Look

Like I said, this is a two-horse race (and maybe just one, in Murphy). But, if The Oscars really want to toss a curve at us, Wright's performance in American Fiction was really good. He doesn't deserve to win, or be the favorite, but he should be way higher in these odds than +8000. So maybe that's worth a small bet?

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Actress
Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)-225
Emma Stone (Poor Things)+135
Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall)+3500
Carey Mulligan (Maestro)+5000
Annette Bening (Nyad)+5000

I hate to just be riding the chalk in all these market, but I do think Gladstone is probably going to get the win here. But, unlike some other top awards, I think there's a CHANCE Emma Stone pulls off the upset. Her performance in Poor Things was really good, but I'm not sure +135 is good enough value to back this upset pick. That line implies a 42.55% chance Stone will win Best Actress, and I just don't think it's that high.

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)-3500
Ryan Gosling (Barbie)+900
Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)+2000
Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)+2500
Sterling K Brown (American Fiction)+4000

Another market with a runaway favorite. We've been talking about Downey Jr. as a sure-thing for this Best Supporting Actor award for so long, that I actually think he's become too favored. Give me Ryan Gosling at a juicy +900 to get the upset of the year.

I'm not sure how much you want to look into the Toronto Film Critics Association or the Australian Academy of Cinema and Television Arts Awards, but Gosling pulled off the Best Supporting Actor upset at those shows (and a few others). Maybe he can do it at The Academy Awards, too?

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Supporting Actress
DaVine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)-3500
Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)+2000
Danielle Brooks (The Colour Purple)+2000
America Ferrera (Barbie)+2000
Jodie Foster (Nyad)+4000

This is one of the weaker categories at The Oscars this year, but Randolph's performance in The Holdovers was great. She's rightfully going to win this award. I haven't seen Nyad, but I've heard great things about Foster's performance in the film. If you're looking for an underdog bet heree, take the biggest long-shot.

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse-190
The Boy and the Heron+125
Robot Dreams+3500

Finally, some value! The newest animated Spider-Man was really good, but not nearly as good as the first version a few years ago. So, I think The Academy goes a different direction this year and gives it to The Boy and the Heron.

Odds To Win Academy Award For Costume Design
Poor Things-135
Killers of the Flower Moon+2800

This is probably the tightest category I can see on the board, and rightfully so. I think it's basically a toss-up between Poor Things and Barbie, so I'll take the +110 value on Barbie.

I think Napoleon provides some sneaky value here, too. If you want to take a long-shot. The costumes were great in that film, but the lighting of the movie made it really hard to appreciate it.

2024 Oscar Odds Breakdown

The Oscar nominees are in for the 96th Academy Awards that will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles on March 10th to recognize the best and most talented of the film industry in 2023.

Maybe I'm just being biased, but I thought 2023 was quite the year for big-budget movies, with the film industry finally getting back to full capacity after the pandemic. So, looking at the 2024 Oscar odds for top awards like Best Picture and Best Actor/Actress is full of some of the biggest names in cinema. In the drop-downs above, I break down the individual award markets and some value picks where I find them.

Oscars Betting FAQ

Can I bet on the Academy Awards?

Yes, you can make entertainment bets on the Academy Awards. You can wager on such things as which film will win Best Picture. You can bet on who will win Best Director. You can place bets on who will win Best Actor or Best Actress. You can ever bet on Best Original Screenplay, and Best Adapted Screenplay.

What's the difference between the Academy Awards and the Oscars?

Believe it or not, there is actually no difference between the Academy Awards and the Oscars. The Academy Awards and the Oscars are the same thing. The name for the gold trophy is merely nicknamed "Oscar", which is why the Academy Awards are sometimes referred to as the Oscars. The official name for an academy trophy is the Academy Award of Merit.

Who is the favorite to win Best Picture?

Everything Everywhere All At Once is the current betting favorite at -165 odds to win the Academy Award for Best Picture. 

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