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2021 Oscars Betting Odds: Nomadland Leads Best Picture Faves

The Oscar nominees are in for the 93rd annual Academy Awards that will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles on April 25 to recognize the pinnacle of the film industry in 2020. After some obvious and some shocking results from the 78th Golden Globes, oddsmakers have had to make some adjustments in Oscar odds with more line movement following the SAG Awards and BAFTA Film Awards ceremonies.

Leading the way with 10 nominations is “Mank,” which is a black and white biography film from director David Fincher about screenplay writer Herman J. Mankiewicz and his work on the cinematic masterpiece “Citizen Kane.” While Mank has the most nominations, it isn’t favored in any category in Oscar odds like the next film on the list, Nomadland.

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Nomadland has six nominations for the Academy Awards and when it comes to Oscar odds, it’s a huge odds-on favorite for three of the biggest accolades in film: Best Picture, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay.

2020 Oscar Odds – Best Picture

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Picture
FilmOdds
Nomadland-550
The Trial of the Chicago 7+500
Minari+1200
Promising Young Woman+2000
Judas and the Black Messiah+4000
Mank+4500
Sound of Metal+8000
The Father+8000

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

After winning the Golden Globe for Best Picture Drama as a -180 favorite, Nomadland has vaulted up the oddsboard to become a -550 favorite in Oscar odds to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards. The film stars Frances McDormand as a widow who travels across the United States after losing her job and meets people in similar struggling circumstances. The movie has been universally acclaimed by film critics and seems like a runaway train to take the golden statue.

The competition in the Best Picture category for 2020 doesn’t seem as overwhelming as in years past with the COVID-19 pandemic shuttering a lot of new productions. Nearly all of the films nominated for Best Picture were shot prior to the pandemic, which may partially explain why Nomadland is such an odds-on favorite for arguably the most coveted award in the film industry.

Would films like “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” “Mank” or “The Father” be nominated in a conventional year? It’s hard to tell but it’s clear that one movie stands above the rest in Best Picture Oscar odds.


2020 Oscar Odds – Best Director

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Director
DirectorOdds
Chloe Zhao (Nomadland)-2000
David Fincher (Mank)+900
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round)+1600
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari)+2000
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman)+2000

Odds as of April 225at Bovada

Much like Best Picture, the Best Director category for the Academy Awards has an odds-on favorite for Nomadland, with Chloe Zhao set as a -2000 favorite. I don’t know what’s crazier – that Zhao is such a big favorite or that she is only the third female nominee for this category since 2009. Greta Gerwig was nominated back in 2017 for “Ladybird” and Emerald Fennell joins Zhao in 2020 for “Promising Young Woman.”

Zhao seems all but a lock to win this award, and 2009 is notable because it was the first and only time a female director won the Best Director award, with Kathryn Bigelow taking it for “The Hurt Locker.” If Zhao doesn’t win it, consider Fennell as a worthy backup bet based on the odds (+2000) and increasingly relevant subject matter for her film “Promising Young Woman.”


2020 Oscar Odds – Best Actor and Actress

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Actor
ActorOdds
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)-1200
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)+500
Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)+1500
Steven Yeun (Minari)+3500
Gary Oldman (Mank)+3500

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Actress
ActressOdds
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)+125
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)+175
Frances McDormand (Nomadland)+375
Andra Day (The United States vs Billie Holiday)+600
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman)+2100

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

As I said in my Golden Globes piece, Chadwick Boseman is the biggest lock of all time to win his first Academy Award posthumously for his electric role as Levee Green in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” Boseman is currently one of the largest favorites among nominees for any category in Oscar odds at -1200 and also was awarded the Best Actor Golden Globe for Drama for the role.

Best Actress might be the most competitive category in Oscar odds because five candidates did outstanding work to get nominated and each has a legit case to win. Carey Mulligan is the +125 favorite for “Promising Young Woman,” which focuses on the victimization of women and how one woman took matters into her own hands for retribution after the passing of her best friend.

Viola Davis opened at +1200 and has shot up to +175 for her role as “Ma Rainey” opposite Boseman in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” The physical transformation of Davis to play the part while showcasing her acting chops could make her a popular choice for this betting prop.

Mulligan certainly warrants being the favorite in this spot but other nominees like Frances McDormand (+375) and Andra Day (+600) could win this award. Day may be the value play here at +600 for her portrayal of Billie Holiday as she won the Best Actress Golden Globe for Drama for this role.

2020 Oscar Odds – Best Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Supporting Actor
ActorOdds
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)-3000
Paul Raci (Sound of Metal)+1100
Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7)+1400
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night In Miami)+1600
LaKeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah)+3300

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Supporting Actress
ActressOdds
Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari)-650
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)+425
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy)+1100
Olivia Coleman (The Father)+2500
Amanda Seyfried (Mank)+3500

Odds as of April 26 at Bovada

Anyone who saw “Judas and the Black Messiah” knew Daniel Kaluuya was going to be a heavy favorite (-3000) for Best Supporting Actor, regardless of competition. Kaluuya portrays Fred Hampton, who was the chairman of the Black Panther Party in Illinois back in the late 1960s and combats racial injustice before being brought down by an informant played by LaKeith Stanfield (+3300), who was also nominated for this category.

While it’s Kaluuya’s award to lose, a special shout-out goes to Leslie Odom Jr. for his role as the legendary Sam Cooke in “One Night in Miami,” which allowed Odom to show his acting and singing range as the great vocalist.

For Best Supporting Actress, newcomer Maria Bakalova for “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” opened as the fave in Oscar odds at EVEN but has since dropped to +425. That’s because Yuh-Jung Youn for the film “Minari” has jumped in as the new fave at -650 after opening at +320. Youn plays “Soon-ja,” a Korean grandmother who relocates to Arkansas to help her son’s produce farm and watch her grandchildren. 

As for Bakalova, the 24-year-old Bulgarian had arguably the most memorable performance by any actor in 2020 with her hilarious turn as Borat’s daughter “Tutar” and stole nearly every scene she was in for the prank comedy.

Best of the Rest in Oscar Odds

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Original Screenplay
FilmOdds
Promising Young Woman-400
The Trial of the Chicago 7+275
Minari+1400
Judas and the Black Messiah+2200
Sound of Metal +3300

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Adapted Screenplay
FilmOdds
Nomadland-200
The Father+150
Borat Subsequent Moviefilm+1400
One Night In Miami+2000
The White Tiger+5000

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Animated Film
FilmOdds
Soul-4000
Wolfwalkers+700
Onward+2200
Over the Moon+2800
Shaun The Sheep: Farmageddon+3300

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Cinematography
FilmOdds
Nomadland-500
Mank+300
News of the World+2000
Judas and the Black Messiah+2600
The Trial of the Chicago 7+2800

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Costume Design
FilmOdds
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom-450
Emma+333
Mank+1000
Mulan+2200
Pinocchio+4000

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Documentary (short Subject)
FilmOdds
A Love Song for Latasha+120
A Concerto Is A Conversation+175
Do Not Split+250
Colette+1400
Hunger Ward+2500

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Documentary Feature
FilmOdds
My Octopus Teacher-450
Time+425
Collective+850
Crip Champ+1300
The Mole Agent+4200

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Film Editing
FilmOdds
The Trial of the Chicago 7-110
The Sound of Metal-110
Nomadland+1000
Promising Young Woman+2000
The Father+5000

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best International Feature
FilmOdds
Another Round-1200
Quo Vadis Aida+600
Collective+1400
Better Days+2200
The Man Who Sold His Skin+3300

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Live-Action Short Film
FilmOdds
The Letter Room-115
Two Distant Strangers+120
Feeling Through+600
The Present+1600
White Eye+6600

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Makeup
FilmOdds
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom-400
Pinocchio+400
Hillbilly Elegy+900
Mank+1600
Emma+2000

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Original Score
FilmOdds
Soul-1400
Mank+700
Minari+1400
News of the World+2500
Da 5 Bloods+2500

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Short Film (Animated)
FilmOdds
If Anything Happens, I Love You-300
Opera+475
Burrow+600
Genius Loci+1000
Yes-People+2000

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Sound
FilmOdds
Sound of Metal-3000
Mank+1000
Soul+1200
News of the World+2800
Greyhound+3300

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds To Win Academy Award For Best Visual Effects
FilmOdds
Tenet-400
The Midnight Sky+250
Mulan+1700
Love and Monsters+2800
The One and Only Ivan+2800

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada