2021 Oscars Betting Odds: Nomadland Leads Best Picture Faves

The Oscar nominees are in for the 93rd annual Academy Awards that will be held at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles on April 25 to recognize the pinnacle of the film industry in 2020. After some obvious and some shocking results from the 78th Golden Globes, oddsmakers have had to make some adjustments in Oscar odds with more line movement following the SAG Awards and BAFTA Film Awards ceremonies.

Leading the way with 10 nominations is “Mank,” which is a black and white biography film from director David Fincher about screenplay writer Herman J. Mankiewicz and his work on the cinematic masterpiece “Citizen Kane.” While Mank has the most nominations, it isn’t favored in any category in Oscar odds like the next film on the list, Nomadland.

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Nomadland has six nominations for the Academy Awards and when it comes to Oscar odds, it’s a huge odds-on favorite for three of the biggest accolades in film: Best Picture, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay.

2020 Oscar Odds – Best Picture

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

After winning the Golden Globe for Best Picture Drama as a -180 favorite, Nomadland has vaulted up the oddsboard to become a -550 favorite in Oscar odds to win Best Picture at the Academy Awards. The film stars Frances McDormand as a widow who travels across the United States after losing her job and meets people in similar struggling circumstances. The movie has been universally acclaimed by film critics and seems like a runaway train to take the golden statue.

The competition in the Best Picture category for 2020 doesn’t seem as overwhelming as in years past with the COVID-19 pandemic shuttering a lot of new productions. Nearly all of the films nominated for Best Picture were shot prior to the pandemic, which may partially explain why Nomadland is such an odds-on favorite for arguably the most coveted award in the film industry.

Would films like “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” “Mank” or “The Father” be nominated in a conventional year? It’s hard to tell but it’s clear that one movie stands above the rest in Best Picture Oscar odds.

2020 Oscar Odds – Best Director

Odds as of April 225at Bovada

Much like Best Picture, the Best Director category for the Academy Awards has an odds-on favorite for Nomadland, with Chloe Zhao set as a -2000 favorite. I don’t know what’s crazier – that Zhao is such a big favorite or that she is only the third female nominee for this category since 2009. Greta Gerwig was nominated back in 2017 for “Ladybird” and Emerald Fennell joins Zhao in 2020 for “Promising Young Woman.”

Zhao seems all but a lock to win this award, and 2009 is notable because it was the first and only time a female director won the Best Director award, with Kathryn Bigelow taking it for “The Hurt Locker.” If Zhao doesn’t win it, consider Fennell as a worthy backup bet based on the odds (+2000) and increasingly relevant subject matter for her film “Promising Young Woman.”

2020 Oscar Odds – Best Actor and Actress

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

As I said in my Golden Globes piece, Chadwick Boseman is the biggest lock of all time to win his first Academy Award posthumously for his electric role as Levee Green in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” Boseman is currently one of the largest favorites among nominees for any category in Oscar odds at -1200 and also was awarded the Best Actor Golden Globe for Drama for the role.

Best Actress might be the most competitive category in Oscar odds because five candidates did outstanding work to get nominated and each has a legit case to win. Carey Mulligan is the +125 favorite for “Promising Young Woman,” which focuses on the victimization of women and how one woman took matters into her own hands for retribution after the passing of her best friend.

Viola Davis opened at +1200 and has shot up to +175 for her role as “Ma Rainey” opposite Boseman in “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.” The physical transformation of Davis to play the part while showcasing her acting chops could make her a popular choice for this betting prop.

Mulligan certainly warrants being the favorite in this spot but other nominees like Frances McDormand (+375) and Andra Day (+600) could win this award. Day may be the value play here at +600 for her portrayal of Billie Holiday as she won the Best Actress Golden Globe for Drama for this role.

2020 Oscar Odds – Best Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds as of April 26 at Bovada

Anyone who saw “Judas and the Black Messiah” knew Daniel Kaluuya was going to be a heavy favorite (-3000) for Best Supporting Actor, regardless of competition. Kaluuya portrays Fred Hampton, who was the chairman of the Black Panther Party in Illinois back in the late 1960s and combats racial injustice before being brought down by an informant played by LaKeith Stanfield (+3300), who was also nominated for this category.

While it’s Kaluuya’s award to lose, a special shout-out goes to Leslie Odom Jr. for his role as the legendary Sam Cooke in “One Night in Miami,” which allowed Odom to show his acting and singing range as the great vocalist.

For Best Supporting Actress, newcomer Maria Bakalova for “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” opened as the fave in Oscar odds at EVEN but has since dropped to +425. That’s because Yuh-Jung Youn for the film “Minari” has jumped in as the new fave at -650 after opening at +320. Youn plays “Soon-ja,” a Korean grandmother who relocates to Arkansas to help her son’s produce farm and watch her grandchildren. 

As for Bakalova, the 24-year-old Bulgarian had arguably the most memorable performance by any actor in 2020 with her hilarious turn as Borat’s daughter “Tutar” and stole nearly every scene she was in for the prank comedy.

Best of the Rest in Oscar Odds

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada

Odds as of April 25 at Bovada