What a run. The Philadelphia Phillies – somehow, some way – have made it to the 2022 World Series.
This club has been through the wringer this season. It began with a slow start and a fired manager. Then it became a tale of poor defense, as Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm was caught on camera saying he “hated” playing at Citizens Bank Park. But Philly and its notoriously rowdy fans held strong.
The Phillies’ run to the World Series has been full of magical underdog moments. The Fightin’ Phils 2022 season has been one giant exercise in defying the odds. We want to revisit this miraculous run and outline how you, our lovely sports bettors, can capitalize on Philadelphia in the World Series.
First, though, check out our other MLB pages, including our best MLB betting sites and odds, as well as our MLB computer picks page. If you’re unsure how baseball betting works, our How To Bet on Baseball guide has you covered.
Philadelphia Phillies Odds History
|Date||Odds To Win NL Pennant||Odds To Win World Series|
|Prior to Wild-Card Series||+1100||+3000|
|Prior to Divisional Series||+500||+1000|
How the heck did we get here?
Before the season began, Philadelphia had -110 odds to make the playoffs. That seems like fair value (although the Phils almost bungled their playoff spot as they finished with 87 wins). They were also given +1300 odds to win the NL pennant and +2500 odds to win the World Series. Little did we know that was just the start of the roller-coaster.
The Phillies started 21-29 through the first two months of the season, and by June 3 the club fired manager Joe Girardi, replacing him with bench coach Rob Thomson. On June 1, Philadelphia’s World Series odds stretched to +3500. By the end of June, free-agent signee Nick Castellanos was fighting with reporters after getting booed at home.
Things got a bit contentious in the #Phillies clubhouse tonight during and after Nick Castellanos' media availability and our @6abc cameras were there. Thoughts on this exchange? pic.twitter.com/DcqmbIpz2e— Jamie Apody (@JamieApody) July 24, 2022
The 2022 season was in the toilet. Or was it?
Under Thomson, the Phils caught fire, going 65-46 (.586) and turning the entire season around. Come playoff time, Philly was an underdog in its first two playoff series (+110 vs the Cardinals and +170 vs the Braves) and still rolled through each club with ease before dismantling the Padres in the NLCS and securing their first NL pennant since 2009.
Phillies’ Home-Field Advantage
Philadelphia is a crazy sports city. Between the Phillies’ run to the World Series and the Eagles’ hot start, the city is wired. That energy has translated onto the field, too, where the Phils are 5-0 SU (4-1 runline) at Citizens Bank Park.
The offense has been especially electric at home in the playoffs. Philly is averaging seven runs per game and has hit 12 homers in its five playoff games in front of home fans.
During the regular season, the Phillies were much better at home (47-34) than on the road (40-41). Home-field advantage has been a big part of this Cinderella run, and we’ll break down how that factors into the World Series a little later in this article.
Bryce Harper Stats
Pause, take a deep breath and admire the postseason Bryce Harper is having. The Phillies designated hitter had always been a quality playoff performer (.801 OPS before 2022) but he’s taken it to another level this year.
Harper is playing out of his mind. Through 11 games, he’s batting .419 with five homers, six doubles, 11 RBIs and a 1.351 OPS. The 30-year-old has reached base in every playoff game. He also has seven multi-hit games, and the Phillies are 5-0 SU when he hits a homer.
Nothing encapsulated Harper’s legendary October performance quite like his game-winning home run vs the Padres in Game 5 of the NLCS that sent Philadelphia to the World Series.
How to Bet The Phillies In The World Series
So here’s the big question: how do we make money betting on the Phillies in the World Series? Let’s examine a few categories.
Phillies To Win World Series (+155): Series Price or Game-By-Game?
Since the Phils are unlikely to pull up and just crush the Astros (who are 7-0 this postseason), it seems smarter to lay your dough on the series price instead of a game-by-game basis.
If, as a bettor, you’re invested in the entire series, then opt for the +155 value on the series price. If you’re just hoping to dabble on a game or two, then feel free to bet on the Phils, likely perpetual ’dogs during this series, at home, for example.
Harper To Win World Series MVP (+550)
Given how hot Harper is, it’s no surprise to see him leading the odds to win the World Series MVP. +550, even as the chalk, is strong value, but keep in mind that any WS MVP bet is essentially a parlay. First, you’ll need the Phillies to win, then Harper will also need to keep up his pace at the plate for the hardware to come his way.
That said, we have all the faith in the world that Harper can keep it up. He entered baseball as the most hyped prospect in MLB history and has delivered every step of the way. These are the moments he’s built for. The bright lights just suit him too well.
Phillies Player Props & OVER/UNDERS To Watch
The player props likely won’t be released until Friday, but look for Harper to cash on his OVER hit totals. There’s probably money to be made on betting OVER 1.5 hits for Harper, although the smarter move is to opt for the OVER on total bases, where Harper’s OBP skills offer more chances for success.
For pitching props, keep a close eye on Aaron Nola’s O/U strikeout total. The 29-year-old has whiffed exactly six hitters in each of his three playoff starts this year, including his most recent outing where he was tanked for six runs. Look for the OVER on Nola’s strikeouts.
Philadelphia’s other ace, Zack Wheeler, has been an innings-eater this October. He’s recorded at least 18 outs in all four of his starts and never allowed more than three runs in an outing. Bet the OVER on his total outs and the UNDER on total runs.
We promised to talk about home-field advantage again. The key to betting the Phillies at home involves hammering the OVER on total runs. The OVER is 4-1 at Citizens Bank Park this season.
When is the World Series?
The 2022 World Series between the Houston Astros and the Philadelphia Phillies begins Friday, October 28 at 8:03 p.m.
When did the Phillies last win the World Series?
The Phillies have won two World Series, once in 1980 and, more recently, in 2008.
What are the World Series odds?
The Houston Astros are favored at -185 in the World Series odds, while the Philadelphia Phillies are the +155 underdogs.