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MLB Bullpen betting trendds

Every baseball fan and bettor knows the feeling. When the manager walks out onto the grass and raises an arm — the dreaded call to the bullpen. For some teams, a late-game lead means the contest is already won. But for the league’s worst bullpens, that call for a reliever often spells disaster.

Bad MLB bullpens are hard to watch. But here at Odds Shark, we’re making them profitable. Below, we break down the best and worst bullpens in baseball and how you can capitalize on them to make some betting profit. We’ll update this page throughout the season, so check back for fresh 2022 data.

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2022 MLB Worst Bullpen Betting Data

Baseball’s Worst Bullpens In 2022
Team7-9th Inning Team ERA7-9th ERA When Winning7-9th ERA Up 1 Run
Cincinnati Reds5.907.383.00
Kansas City Royals5.514.986.33
Los Angeles Angels5.195.733.25
Pittsburgh Pirates4.524.924.23
San Francisco Giants4.505.143.00

Data courtesy of Odds Shark’s database for the 2022 season

So far, there aren’t really any surprises at the bottom of the bullpen rankings, but that doesn’t mean this info can’t help you win bets. If the Reds get up in a game and you see their odds at juicy plus money, don’t be tempted. A 5.90 late-game ERA is pretty bad and is a leading reason Cincinnati is one of the worst teams in baseball so far this year. The Royals bullpen is also destined to get worse, with some of their better arms sure to be shipped off at the trade deadline.

One bullpen not matching expected performance is the Giants’ unit. San Francisco had one of the best bullpens in baseball last year, and returned a largely similar group, but they haven’t been up to the task in 2022. Late-game righties Camilo Doval and Dominic Leone have been solid, but Jake McGee and Tyler Rogers both have ERAs at or above 5.00. If the two veteran setup men can’t get their 2022 seasons on track, they may start to lose late-game duties.

2022 MLB Best Bullpen Betting Data

Baseball’s Best Bullpens In 2022
Team7-9th Inning Team ERA7-9th ERA When Winning7-9th ERA Up 1 Run
Baltimore Orioles2.962.421.88
Detroit Tigers3.062.712.57
Milwaukee Brewers3.273.084.50
Houston Astros3.343.894.50
New York Yankees3.513.543.00

Data courtesy of Odds Shark’s database for the 2022 season

There are certainly some surprises at the top of this best bullpen list, with the dominance of the Orioles in late-game situations sticking out.

Baltimore’s bullpen has been a rare bright spot on the Orioles. They have four regular relievers with ERAs below 2.00 — Jorge Lopez, Felix Bautista, Cionel Perez and Dillon Tate — and have been dominant in any situation at any time. One thing to note with the Baltimore ’pen is that this group could radically shift at the 2022 MLB trade deadline. Before you lock in your late-game or live bets on Baltimore for the rest of the season, make sure they haven’t traded away Lopez and Tate.

Check out below for some tips on how to use this bullpen data to inform your bets, but one of the main things to note with these best bullpens is to not expect a comeback if youre betting against them.

You can utilize these pitching trends at any of our top MLB sportsbooks, or lock in a bet over at [ol-sportsbook-bp:48:Bovada:26:Bodog]:

If you’re looking for more MLB betting resources, check out Odds Shark’s MLB Betting Hub as well as our MLB computer picks page.

How To Profit Off Bad Bullpens

The best way to profit off these shaky bullpens is by tracking games and keeping an eye out for live-betting situations.

If these bad late-game pitching squads have a one- or two-run lead heading into the final few frames, it’s worth sprinkling some cash on the opposition for a hefty underdog payout! All of our top baseball sportsbooks have live-betting options, so sign up and watch out for a leaky bullpen getting the lead.

Bad Bullpen? Bet The OVER

Another way to capitalize on bad bullpens and shaky late-game pitching is by betting the OVER.

The Diamondbacks, who were the second-worst ’pen in baseball last year per 7-9th inning ERA, hit the OVER at 57.4 percent last season, tops in the league. While OVER/UNDER betting in baseball often bakes in opponent offenses and starting pitching matchups, the late-game pitching is often forgotten. 

This strategy could be especially effective when the starters set to pitch for either or both teams in a matchup won’t be working late into the games. Maybe steer clear of the workhorses, but if Merrill Kelly is on the bump for Arizona and isn’t expected to go deep into the game, fading the ’pen by betting the OVER should be a smart strategy.

How To Bet On MLB Baseball

There are three main ways to bet on MLB, in the form of moneyline betting, runline betting or total runs. Moneyline betting is simple, where you just choose the winner of a game. Total runs betting is where you bet on whether the total runs scored in a game will go OVER or UNDER a preset total.

Like most spread bets, for an MLB runline you’re betting that the favorite (denoted by a minus sign) will win by a set number of runs (usually 1.5), or that the underdog (denoted by a plus) will win outright or lose by less than a set number of runs. At the sportsbook, you’ll notice MLB runline spread odds are listed like this:

  • Toronto Blue Jays -1.5
  • Minnesota Twins +1.5

In this example, the Blue Jays are 1.5-run favorites. If you believe that the Jays will win by more than 1.5 runs, you can bet on them to win. If you think the Twins will win, or lose by less than 1.5 runs, you should bet on them!

Check out our odds calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered, as well as the implied probability of all odds.