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2024 MLB Underdog Betting Report: Yanks Crush In Rare Underdog Chances

A comprehensive underdog betting report is key for all sports betting, but no sport needs a crunch on the underdog profits more than MLB. While finding the data might not be an issue, our MLB underdog betting report neatly assembles the moneyline, run line, and pitcher profits for casuals and sharps to take advantage. Let's dive in!

2024 MLB Underdog Moneyline Profits

All profits listed are based on $100 per bet.

MLB Underdog SU Records
SituationUnderdog SU RecordsProfits
OVERALL633-830 (43.3%)-$2439.25
HOME226-283 (44.4%)-$678.62
ROAD407-547 (42.7%)-$1760.63
LAST 3 DAYS25-14 (64.1%)+$1674.46
LAST 7 DAYS46-37 (55.4%)+$1847.94
LAST 14 DAYS72-65 (52.6%)+$2506.18
LAST 30 DAYS164-179 (47.8%)+$2920.9
DAY479-610 (44.0%)-$927.89
NIGHT154-220 (41.2%)-$1511.36

'Dogs have had much more success at home (-$678.82) than on the road (-$1,760.63), though "success" is relative in this case, as both are losing bets. Something is in the water lately, though, because ML underdog bets have been stupid profitable over the last 30 days (+$2,920.90) of the 2024 MLB season. 

You can ride the underdog wave for now, but remember that water finds its level, especially in baseball. While they are fun to back, underdogs have been a losing bet overall this year. Pick your spots carefully with 'dogs.


2024 MLB Underdog Runline Profits

MLB Underdog ATS Records
SituationUnderdog ATS RecordsProfits
OVERALL893-642 (58.2%)-$4073.07
HOME284-225 (55.8%)-$1227.09
ROAD569-385 (59.6%)-$1728.61
LAST 3 DAYS31-10 (75.6%)+$979.34
LAST 7 DAYS59-27 (68.6%)+$1036.11
LAST 14 DAYS91-49 (65.0%)+$1084.01
LAST 30 DAYS218-139 (61.1%)+$775.15

Underdogs are covering the spread across the board this season, but that does not mean they have been profitable due to the high volume of +1.5 covers at -200. If you feel strongly about an underdog, consider taking them on the moneyline rather than ATS, because despite covering at a 58.2% clip, 'dogs are down -$4,073.07 on the runline this season.


2024 MLB Underdog Report - Days Of The Week

DayUnderdog RunlineRunline ProfitsUnderdog SUProfits
Monday86-82 (58.2%)-$2503.0359-98 (43.3%)-$2355.56
Tuesday147-87 (55.8%)+$1401.7298-126 (44.4%)-$331.58
Wednesday144-96 (59.6%)+$401.66107-123 (42.7%)+$1418.24
Thursday83-57 (75.6%)-$189.9758-73 (64.1%)+$280.34
Friday140-100 (68.6%)-$431.4101-131 (55.4%)+$156.66
Saturday146-112 (65.0%)-$1545.78108-140 (52.6%)-$481.89
Sunday147-108 (61.1%)-$1206.27102-139 (47.8%)-$1125.46

Generally, it’s safe to dismiss such absurd trends since teams/matchups and many other betting factors change each day, regardless of where it falls on the calendar. But in MLB, it seems certain days just work out better for bettors. In 2022, for example, if you had blindly bet $100 on every underdog moneyline exclusively on Tuesdays, you would’ve made $4,072.74 in profit. In 2023, Mondays were the spot for runline profits ($427.96) and Sundays offered a window for SU gains ($1,692.45).

This year, Wednesdays have been a gold mine for moneyline bettors (+$1,418.24) while Tuesdays have been the most successful for underdogs on the runline (+$1,401.72).


2024 MLB Underdog Moneyline Team Report

TeamUnderdog Win %Underdog SU RecordProfit
NY Yankees77.814-4+$1141.48
Baltimore55.610-8+$349.48
Houston55.615-12+$424.89
Milwaukee53.324-21+$743.33
San Diego52.521-19+$641.58
St. Louis51.026-25+$546.46
Seattle50.017-17+$284.24
Boston50.022-22+$431.33
Cleveland50.015-15+$345.74
Tampa Bay48.922-23+$156.04
Pittsburgh48.227-29+$506.48
NY Mets47.721-23+$304.39
San Francisco46.923-26+$194.24
Philadelphia46.77-8-$25.61
Chi Cubs46.426-30+$182.48
LA Angels46.439-45+$547.28
Arizona46.325-29+$81.96
Detroit45.827-32-$116.42
Cincinnati44.424-30+$150.24
Washington44.335-44+$760.24
Kansas City42.322-30-$353.0
Minnesota41.913-18-$368.28
Miami38.833-52-$649.76
Texas38.116-26-$706.52
Colorado36.337-65-$742.0
Toronto36.217-30-$985.02
LA Dodgers33.33-6-$246.76
Oakland32.629-60-$1460.0
Chi White Sox22.722-75-$4077.76
Atlanta14.31-6-$500.0

Hats off to the Yankees, who kill it in their rare opportunities as ML underdogs, generating upward of 10 units in profit. There's little reason for New York to ever be the underdog this year, so I'd hammer the Bronx Bombers whenever you see plus-money odds. 

On the other end of the spectrum, the Rangers and Twins appear to be unreliable underdog bets despite their contender status. We can glean much more from the top of this chart than the bottom, so stick to betting profitable underdog teams instead of fading poor underdogs.


2024 MLB Underdog Runline Team Report

TeamUnderdog Win %Underdog ATS RecordProfit
Baltimore76.216-5+$407.24
NY Yankees75.015-5+$343.87
Houston67.919-9+$177.31
Pittsburgh67.840-19+$733.0
St. Louis67.335-17+$472.77
San Diego66.730-15+$338.11
Detroit66.139-20+$409.11
Milwaukee66.031-16+$255.35
Chi Cubs64.438-21+$216.46
Cleveland63.621-12+$64.01
Arizona63.034-20+$185.23
Boston63.029-17+$77.64
LA Angels61.155-35+$391.23
Cincinnati60.734-22+$81.81
San Francisco59.332-22-$204.26
NY Mets59.229-20-$177.28
Kansas City58.933-23-$185.03
Minnesota57.619-14-$305.03
Washington57.347-35+$154.1
Tampa Bay53.126-23-$785.46
Toronto53.126-23-$818.69
Philadelphia52.99-8-$303.08
Seattle52.819-17-$597.69
Miami52.345-41-$559.07
Oakland52.248-44-$502.94
Texas51.123-22-$777.04
Colorado50.552-51-$577.31
LA Dodgers44.44-5-$251.76
Chi White Sox43.342-55-$1879.9
Atlanta33.33-6-$455.77

The Pirates are the big takeaway here, rocking a 40-19 underdog runline record. Pittsburgh's weak offense is no secret, so this data checks out, as the Bucs presumably can't cap off the moneyline upsets but find success in the runline realm. Keep an eye on this trend as the MLB season passes the trade deadline and teams sort themselves into contenders and non-contenders.


2024 MLB Underdog Starting Pitcher Report

The data goes to show that superstar pitchers are often far too chalked to become profitable. Comb through our chart below and zero in on your favorite hurlers. Remember, though, this trend is only applicable when these teams/pitchers were underdogs, and doesn’t mean to blindly back the team just because that specific pitcher is on the hill. 

Here’s the data for 2024 so far.

PitcherProfitRecord
Trevor Williams+$1090.979-2 (81.8%)
Mitch Keller+$824.3714-6 (70.0%)
Tanner Bibee+$819.9816-5 (76.2%)
James Paxton+$673.5814-4 (77.8%)
Cal Quantrill+$655.2411-10 (52.4%)
Shota Imanaga+$633.9514-4 (77.8%)
Colin Rea+$622.212-5 (70.6%)
Cooper Criswell+$573.819-4 (69.2%)
David Peterson+$569.978-1 (88.9%)
Simeon Woods Richardson+$550.5112-5 (70.6%)
Alec Marsh+$540.711-7 (61.1%)
Tyler Anderson+$539.9611-9 (55.0%)
Sean Manaea+$535.6913-7 (65.0%)
Paul Blackburn+$477.816-2 (75.0%)
Lance Lynn+$462.9812-8 (60.0%)
Kyle Harrison+$448.4211-6 (64.7%)
Triston McKenzie+$421.1111-5 (68.8%)
Ronel Blanco+$414.1813-6 (68.4%)
Jose Berrios+$413.6413-8 (61.9%)
Marcus Stroman+$409.9413-7 (65.0%)
Mitchell Parker+$405.579-9 (50.0%)
Grayson Rodriguez+$403.0313-5 (72.2%)
Andrew Abbott+$387.0612-8 (60.0%)
Kyle Freeland+$385.05-4 (55.6%)
Ranger Suarez+$369.3814-6 (70.0%)
Robert Gasser+$368.795-0 (100.0%)
Seth Lugo+$356.5813-8 (61.9%)
Logan Allen+$347.5611-7 (61.1%)
Gavin Stone+$337.7613-5 (72.2%)
Brandon Hughes+$335.242-0 (100.0%)
Brayan Bello+$333.8511-7 (61.1%)
Michael King+$332.4712-8 (60.0%)
Brent Suter+$330.02-1 (66.7%)
Aaron Nola+$313.7615-6 (71.4%)
Luis Gil+$307.9513-7 (65.0%)
Clarke Schmidt+$302.58-3 (72.7%)
Spencer Turnbull+$301.026-1 (85.7%)
Taj Bradley+$300.128-5 (61.5%)
Cole Irvin+$293.069-5 (64.3%)
Braxton Garrett+$290.04-3 (57.1%)
Nick Lodolo+$271.0510-5 (66.7%)
Jose Quintana+$268.9911-9 (55.0%)
Tanner Houck+$260.3513-7 (65.0%)
DL Hall+$260.03-1 (75.0%)
Yu Darvish+$254.957-4 (63.6%)
Cody Bradford+$254.053-0 (100.0%)
Sonny Gray+$252.1112-6 (66.7%)
Chad Kuhl+$250.01-0 (100.0%)
Tarik Skubal+$249.8213-7 (65.0%)
Bryan Woo+$248.297-3 (70.0%)
Carson Fulmer+$245.02-0 (100.0%)
Casey Mize+$243.929-7 (56.2%)
Jordan Montgomery+$237.359-5 (64.3%)
Dallas Keuchel+$236.963-1 (75.0%)
Erik Miller+$236.525-4 (55.6%)
Shawn Dubin+$230.02-0 (100.0%)
Jackson Rutledge+$230.01-0 (100.0%)
Luis Ortiz+$224.073-1 (75.0%)
Kyle Bradish+$220.886-2 (75.0%)
Chris Paddack+$217.8411-6 (64.7%)
Paul Skenes+$214.58-4 (66.7%)
Max Meyer+$210.02-1 (66.7%)
Zack Kelly+$206.672-0 (100.0%)
Xzavion Curry+$197.43-1 (75.0%)
Joe Musgrove+$187.276-4 (60.0%)
Chris Sale+$187.1413-5 (72.2%)
Bryce Miller+$185.8811-9 (55.0%)
Julio Teheran+$185.01-0 (100.0%)
Freddy Peralta+$176.3813-7 (65.0%)
Cristian Mena+$175.01-0 (100.0%)
Shawn Armstrong+$172.54-2 (66.7%)
Shane Bieber+$168.462-0 (100.0%)
Keider Montero+$168.03-2 (60.0%)
German Marquez+$165.01-0 (100.0%)
Robbie Ray+$165.01-0 (100.0%)
Joan Adon+$164.01-0 (100.0%)
Jack Flaherty+$155.7510-8 (55.6%)
Max Fried+$153.5312-6 (66.7%)
Cody Poteet+$147.623-1 (75.0%)
John Means+$147.043-1 (75.0%)
Gerson Garabito+$140.01-0 (100.0%)
Marco Gonzales+$138.463-2 (60.0%)
Alex Faedo+$135.01-0 (100.0%)
Josh Fleming+$132.962-1 (66.7%)
Tyler Phillips+$132.632-0 (100.0%)
Corbin Burnes+$132.613-7 (65.0%)
Joey Estes+$132.246-7 (46.2%)
Josh Winckowski+$131.463-2 (60.0%)
Hayden Birdsong+$128.393-2 (60.0%)
Yonny Chirinos+$125.03-3 (50.0%)
Brady Singer+$123.5412-8 (60.0%)
Jose Butto+$122.594-3 (57.1%)
Zach Plesac+$120.02-1 (66.7%)
Aaron Brooks+$120.02-2 (50.0%)
Javier Assad+$118.959-9 (50.0%)
Jared Koenig+$116.923-2 (60.0%)
Steven Okert+$116.01-0 (100.0%)
Blair Henley+$116.01-0 (100.0%)
Shane Baz+$115.242-1 (66.7%)
Beau Brieske+$115.01-0 (100.0%)
Anthony Molina+$110.01-0 (100.0%)
Spencer Strider+$109.182-0 (100.0%)
Hogan Harris+$108.04-5 (44.4%)
Spencer Bivens+$105.01-0 (100.0%)
Alex Wood+$103.974-5 (44.4%)
AJ Smith-Shawver+$100.01-0 (100.0%)
Nathan Eovaldi+$97.911-7 (61.1%)
Carmen Mlodzinski+$96.962-1 (66.7%)
Mason Black+$96.432-1 (66.7%)
Carson Spiers+$94.893-2 (60.0%)
Rob Zastryzny+$94.672-1 (66.7%)
Kyle Gibson+$91.4910-9 (52.6%)
Ryne Nelson+$91.459-8 (52.9%)
Jacob Waguespack+$90.911-0 (100.0%)
Hoby Milner+$90.911-0 (100.0%)
Jake Bloss+$89.052-1 (66.7%)
Jameson Taillon+$85.769-8 (52.9%)
River Ryan+$84.751-0 (100.0%)
Jakob Junis+$83.331-0 (100.0%)
Kyle Tyler+$81.02-2 (50.0%)
Randy Rodriguez+$80.01-0 (100.0%)
Austin Gomber+$79.08-11 (42.1%)
Ryan Weathers+$69.916-7 (46.2%)
Ryan Brasier+$68.971-0 (100.0%)
Ben Lively+$68.8610-7 (58.8%)
Edward Cabrera+$63.495-4 (55.6%)
Jack Leiter+$61.032-1 (66.7%)
Jose Soriano+$61.07-9 (43.8%)
Jhonathan Diaz+$54.951-0 (100.0%)
Luke Little+$45.871-0 (100.0%)
Kyle Hurt+$36.361-0 (100.0%)
Framber Valdez+$31.3210-7 (58.8%)
Andre Pallante+$26.475-4 (55.6%)
Miles Mikolas+$23.2410-11 (47.6%)
Reynaldo Lopez+$22.5311-7 (61.1%)
Jordan Wicks+$20.243-3 (50.0%)
Wade Miley+$20.01-1 (50.0%)
Osvaldo Bido+$15.01-1 (50.0%)
Scott McGough+$10.01-1 (50.0%)
Michael Mercado+$3.01-1 (50.0%)
Yariel Rodriguez-$0.145-4 (55.6%)
Chase Silseth-$9.091-1 (50.0%)
Dane Dunning-$10.256-6 (50.0%)
Dylan Cease-$10.8912-9 (57.1%)
David Festa-$11.51-1 (50.0%)
Blake Walston-$16.671-1 (50.0%)
Darius Vines-$16.671-1 (50.0%)
Gerrit Cole-$18.874-3 (57.1%)
Tyler Alexander-$19.383-3 (50.0%)
Trevor Richards-$20.01-1 (50.0%)
Albert Suarez-$30.547-6 (53.8%)
Ty Blach-$35.04-6 (40.0%)
Cristian Javier-$42.424-3 (57.1%)
Carlos Rodon-$45.6312-9 (57.1%)
JP Sears-$49.049-12 (42.9%)
Graham Ashcraft-$52.147-8 (46.7%)
Bryse Wilson-$53.764-5 (44.4%)
Zach Eflin-$59.5310-9 (52.6%)
Davis Daniel-$61.01-2 (33.3%)
Patrick Sandoval-$61.857-9 (43.8%)
Drew Thorpe-$67.933-4 (42.9%)
Slade Cecconi-$70.476-7 (46.2%)
Jose Urena-$72.383-3 (50.0%)
Adam Mazur-$74.093-4 (42.9%)
Max Scherzer-$81.763-3 (50.0%)
Sixto Sanchez-$85.933-4 (42.9%)
Ryan Pepiot-$86.889-8 (52.9%)
Emerson Hancock-$91.434-5 (44.4%)
Logan Gilbert-$93.4111-10 (52.4%)
Erick Fedde-$96.768-12 (40.0%)
Tobias Myers-$97.977-7 (50.0%)
Ben Joyce-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Chayce McDermott-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Dan Altavilla-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Anthony Maldonado-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Elieser Hernandez-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Chase Anderson-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Ryan Walker-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Daulton Jefferies-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Jose Suarez-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Joey Lucchesi-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Ben Brown-$100.03-5 (37.5%)
Gordon Graceffo-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Tanner Banks-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Jonathan Bowlan-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Daniel Lynch-$100.01-2 (33.3%)
Brent Honeywell Jr.-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Anthony Banda-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Orion Kerkering-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Spencer Howard-$100.01-2 (33.3%)
Merrill Kelly-$101.182-2 (50.0%)
Reid Detmers-$101.675-7 (41.7%)
Dean Kremer-$102.96-7 (46.2%)
Jon Gray-$104.469-8 (52.9%)
Tommy Henry-$107.133-4 (42.9%)
Michael Wacha-$112.789-9 (50.0%)
Jake Irvin-$116.119-12 (42.9%)
Brandon Pfaadt-$118.5210-10 (50.0%)
Justin Wrobleski-$121.261-2 (33.3%)
Bowden Francis-$123.081-2 (33.3%)
Yilber Diaz-$123.081-2 (33.3%)
Bailey Falter-$125.267-10 (41.2%)
Roansy Contreras-$125.931-2 (33.3%)
Cade Povich-$129.063-4 (42.9%)
Nick Pivetta-$136.038-8 (50.0%)
Tyler Glasnow-$143.3912-7 (63.2%)
Mike Clevinger-$147.01-3 (25.0%)
Matt Manning-$151.672-3 (40.0%)
Nick Martinez-$161.182-3 (40.0%)
Pablo Lopez-$161.4211-9 (55.0%)
Zack Wheeler-$161.8812-8 (60.0%)
Alek Manoah-$163.042-3 (40.0%)
Bailey Ober-$176.6110-9 (52.6%)
Blake Snell-$178.654-5 (44.4%)
Zac Gallen-$180.868-8 (50.0%)
Luis Severino-$182.5610-9 (52.6%)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto-$192.258-6 (57.1%)
Jonathan Cannon-$197.043-6 (33.3%)
Shaun Anderson-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Allan Winans-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Brennan Bernardino-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Aaron Ashby-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
DJ Herz-$200.03-5 (37.5%)
Zack Thompson-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Valente Bellozo-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Tanner Gordon-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Jake Woodford-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Ray Kerr-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Brad Keller-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Michael Grove-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Jared Shuster-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Bryan Hoeing-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Hurston Waldrep-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Jack Kochanowicz-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Joe Mantiply-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Tyler Holton-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Josiah Gray-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Garrett Whitlock-$202.911-3 (25.0%)
Gavin Williams-$207.411-3 (25.0%)
Matthew Liberatore-$208.042-4 (33.3%)
Kevin Gausman-$209.2110-10 (50.0%)
Randy Vasquez-$214.266-8 (42.9%)
Walker Buehler-$214.954-4 (50.0%)
Joe Boyle-$220.02-5 (28.6%)
MacKenzie Gore-$223.719-11 (45.0%)
Taijuan Walker-$223.844-6 (40.0%)
Steven Matz-$227.332-4 (33.3%)
Zack Littell-$234.799-11 (45.0%)
Bobby Miller-$256.523-4 (42.9%)
Jared Jones-$259.057-9 (43.8%)
Hunter Brown-$274.810-10 (50.0%)
Cristopher Sanchez-$276.8810-9 (52.6%)
Cole Ragans-$282.5210-11 (47.6%)
Bryce Elder-$299.463-5 (37.5%)
Peter Lambert-$300.00-3 (0.0%)
Carlos Rodriguez-$300.00-3 (0.0%)
Tyler Wells-$300.00-3 (0.0%)
Roddery Munoz-$303.033-7 (30.0%)
Nick Nastrini-$310.01-5 (16.7%)
Joe Ryan-$310.5110-10 (50.0%)
Martin Perez-$315.216-10 (37.5%)
Luis Medina-$320.02-6 (25.0%)
Landon Knack-$321.823-5 (37.5%)
Joe Ross-$326.93-6 (33.3%)
Justin Verlander-$331.844-6 (40.0%)
Adrian Houser-$333.042-5 (28.6%)
Jesus Luzardo-$335.04-8 (33.3%)
Spencer Schwellenbach-$356.063-6 (33.3%)
Griffin Canning-$361.538-13 (38.1%)
Tylor Megill-$378.02-6 (25.0%)
Kyle Hendricks-$387.044-9 (30.8%)
A.J. Puk-$400.00-4 (0.0%)
Logan Webb-$440.539-12 (42.9%)
Michael Lorenzen-$449.886-11 (35.3%)
Luis Castillo-$455.8910-12 (45.5%)
George Kirby-$487.349-12 (42.9%)
Louie Varland-$500.00-5 (0.0%)
J.P. France-$500.00-5 (0.0%)
Chris Bassitt-$500.948-12 (40.0%)
Patrick Corbin-$506.06-14 (30.0%)
Carlos Carrasco-$513.327-11 (38.9%)
Charlie Morton-$523.898-10 (44.4%)
Matt Waldron-$526.878-13 (38.1%)
Hayden Wesneski-$533.331-6 (14.3%)
Christian Scott-$537.02-7 (22.2%)
Jordan Hicks-$548.098-12 (40.0%)
Ross Stripling-$569.092-9 (18.2%)
Kenta Maeda-$582.645-11 (31.2%)
Hunter Greene-$591.767-13 (35.0%)
Mitch Spence-$597.423-9 (25.0%)
Garrett Crochet-$598.157-14 (33.3%)
Quinn Priester-$600.00-6 (0.0%)
Mike Soroka-$600.01-8 (11.1%)
Spencer Arrighetti-$615.057-11 (38.9%)
Keaton Winn-$633.433-9 (25.0%)
Kutter Crawford-$661.697-13 (35.0%)
Frankie Montas-$662.696-13 (31.6%)
Justin Steele-$672.785-11 (31.2%)
Reese Olson-$694.856-13 (31.6%)
Ryan Feltner-$700.05-15 (25.0%)
Trevor Rogers-$701.05-15 (25.0%)
Andrew Heaney-$750.886-13 (31.6%)
Dakota Hudson-$806.03-14 (17.6%)
Aaron Civale-$818.346-14 (30.0%)
Nestor Cortes Jr.-$880.037-14 (33.3%)
Yusei Kikuchi-$898.016-15 (28.6%)
Chris Flexen-$1415.02-18 (10.0%)
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