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2021 MLB Underdog Betting Report - Moneyline, Runline & Pitcher Records

The Seattle Mariners have been great underdog bets for the 2021 MLB season.

Major League Baseball is back!! Oddsmakers are letting the boys play for the 2021 season and moneyline underdogs are already starting to pay dividends. With MLB historically having the largest win percentage each season for underdog moneylines, it’s time to dive into the numbers for the 2021 MLB Underdog Report.

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We at Odds Shark love to find profitable angles and trends to help bettors approach a grueling MLB season and one of the ways so far in 2021 has been to just blindly bet every underdog moneyline. If you had backed every MLB underdog on the moneyline so far this season with $100 bets (858 games), you’d be up to $2,284.66 in profit. Those profits aren’t quite as juicy as they had been but the goal in sports betting should be long-term gains, not getting rich quickly.

We will be updating this report with new data weekly all the way through to the final out of the World Series, so be sure to check back frequently.

Joe Osborne is also keeping track of all the MLB First Five Inning betting results from this season and you can find those updated records in his betting report.

All profits listed based on $100 per bet.


2021 MLB Underdog Moneyline Profits

MLB 2021 Underdog SU Records
SituationUnderdog SU RecordsProfits
OVERALL379-479 (44.2%)+$2,284.66
HOME145-162 (47.2%)+$2,211.19
ROAD234-317 (42.5%)+$73.47
LAST 3 DAYS16-23 (41.0%)-$309.96
LAST 7 DAYS39-51 (43.3%)-$270.76
LAST 14 DAYS77-103 (42.8%)-$285.75
LAST 30 DAYS156-233 (40.1%)-$3,126.96
DAY156-192 (44.8%)+$1,521.72
NIGHT223-287 (43.7%)+$762.94

Betting records as of June 7, 2021

With MLB underdogs winning outright 44.2 percent of the time, profits are remaining steady for bettors. If you had backed every MLB underdog so far this season, you’d be up to $2,284.66 in profit. That’s a decent return in just over two months of the season.

Home underdogs are holding steady so far this season at 145-162 SU through 307 games and are holding up their end of the bargain with profits of $2,211.19 for $100 bettors.

With so many games each day, it’s important to look at the splits to see how this MLB underdog trend is faring. For example, over the last month, underdogs have been sinking hard and the well may be drying up for new bettors trying to adopt this strategy. In that span, underdogs are 156-233 SU with negative profits of -$3,126.86 for $100 bettors.

Picking and choosing your spots while anticipating a regression can sometimes make a huge difference to your bankroll.


2021 MLB Underdog Runline Profits

MLB 2021 Underdog ATS Records
SituationUnderdog ATS RecordsProfits
OVERALL519-362 (58.9%)-$602.58
HOME186-136 (57.8%)+$330.6
ROAD333-226 (59.6%)-$933.18
LAST 3 DAYS26-19 (57.8%)-$226.85
LAST 7 DAYS58-38 (60.4%)+$48.48
LAST 14 DAYS110-78 (58.5%)-$476.15
LAST 30 DAYS229-175 (56.7%)-$2,010.28

Betting records as of June 7, 2021

Personally, I don’t usually bet or recommend bettors play +1.5 runlines for MLB underdogs. The juice is often such a squeeze that bettors likely have to wager more than $100 each time just to make the potential returns worth it and then the team you back could still lose by two runs anyway.

The fact remains that if you had blindly bet $100 on the +1.5 runline for every MLB underdog, you’d have negative profits. When you look at the underdog runline record and see 519-362, that would obviously get bettors excited because an angle is hitting at 58.9 percent. The issue, as I mentioned, is most +1.5 runline odds are -200, or worse in some cases, which seriously negates potential profits. That’s why just taking the moneyline instead of the +1.5 runline in MLB is the more sound investment long term.

Check out the MLB runline report for the best and worst teams on the runline in 2021.


MLB Underdog Report - Days of the Week

DayUnderdog RunlineUnderdog ProfitUnderdog SUUnderdog Profit
Monday48-38 (55.8%)-$441.3636-48 (42.9%)+$28.54
Tuesday82-55 (59.9%)+$61.5269-68 (50.4%)+$2,339.57
Wednesday80-46 (63.5%)+$1,001.0258-67 (46.4%)+$1,077.37
Thursday67-44 (60.4%)+$136.5847-61 (43.5%)+$193.33
Friday72-57 (55.8%)-$872.045-79 (36.3%)-$2,018.85
Saturday84-66 (56.0%)-$695.1658-87 (40.0%)-$1,082.38
Sunday86-56 (60.6%)+$206.8266-69 (48.9%)+$1,747.09

Betting records as of June 7, 2021

When one of my followers on Twitter brought to my attention an observation about underdogs covering the spread and/or winning outright in the NBA on specific days, I had to put this to the test for MLB. Generally, I would’ve been dismissive of such an absurd trend since teams/matchups and many other betting factors change each day, regardless of where it falls on the calendar.

Well, I had to eat some crow again on this because certain days just work out better for bettors. For example, if you had blindly bet $100 on every underdog moneyline exclusively on Tuesdays (137 games), you’d be up to $2,339.57 in profit.


MLB Underdog Moneyline Team Report

TeamUnderdog Win %Underdog SU RecordProfit
Red Sox69.616-71,277.71
Brewers61.516-10903.76
Astros61.58-5445.14
Yankees60.03-2110.5
Rays60.018-121,005.52
Giants57.116-12950.0
Blue Jays54.817-14750.48
Indians53.814-12450.24
Mets50.010-10170.61
Mariners49.024-25791.15
Phillies46.714-16152.24
Braves46.77-842.91
Angels46.413-15157.75
Reds46.212-14208.1
Athletics45.510-127.91
Cubs44.813-1653.37
Cardinals43.313-17-111.25
Padres42.96-8-71.0
Tigers40.722-32308.0
Royals39.413-20-196.0
Marlins39.413-20-138.85
Pirates37.720-33-320.42
Orioles37.720-33-652.72
Rangers37.020-34-370.91
Twins33.36-12-482.99
White Sox30.03-7-400.09
Nationals30.09-21-902.76
Rockies29.814-33-1,480.0
Diamondbacks29.415-36-1,636.5
Dodgers00-0$0

Betting records as of June 7, 2021

While it’s still very early in the 2021 MLB season, certain teams are clearly cash cows when tabbed as underdogs. One team that will likely be vying to be king of MLB underdogs when the season concludes is the Boston Red Sox at 16-7 SU. The Red Sox are first in MLB for profits in this spot and now stand at $1,277.71 in 23 games.

The next team on the profit list is another squad from the AL East, the Tampa Bay Rays at 18-12 SU in 30 games. Had you backed them with a $100 bet each time in this spot, you’d be up $1,005.52 in profit.

As it stands on June 7, there is only one team that has yet to lose as an underdog this season and that’s the Los Angeles Dodgers (who have yet to be an underdog).


MLB Underdog Starting Pitcher Report

PitcherProfitRecord
Martin Perez598.05-0 (100.0%)
Kevin Gausman581.04-0 (100.0%)
Casey Mize575.06-5 (54.5%)
Jordan Lyles530.06-5 (54.5%)
Kyle Gibson502.097-4 (63.6%)
Chris Flexen490.06-3 (66.7%)
Aaron Civale469.04-0 (100.0%)
John Means462.045-2 (71.4%)
Tyler Mahle456.03-0 (100.0%)
Adrian Houser382.03-0 (100.0%)
Danny Duffy372.03-0 (100.0%)
Brandon Woodruff365.03-0 (100.0%)
Brad Keller345.05-4 (55.6%)
Steven Matz333.03-1 (75.0%)
Matt Moore328.02-0 (100.0%)
Logan Gilbert310.03-1 (75.0%)
Andrew Kittredge306.152-0 (100.0%)
Kris Bubic304.02-0 (100.0%)
Michael Wacha297.02-0 (100.0%)
Justus Sheffield295.155-4 (55.6%)
Jose Urena292.05-5 (50.0%)
T.J. Zeuch290.02-0 (100.0%)
John Gant289.04-3 (57.1%)
Chad Kuhl287.03-3 (50.0%)
Taijuan Walker279.153-1 (75.0%)
Yusei Kikuchi278.04-3 (57.1%)
Hyun Jin Ryu272.02-0 (100.0%)
Nick Neidert265.02-1 (66.7%)
Rich Hill263.04-2 (66.7%)
Anthony DeSclafani263.04-3 (57.1%)
Jeff Hoffman257.013-2 (60.0%)
Bailey Ober255.02-0 (100.0%)
Jesus Luzardo254.02-0 (100.0%)
Nick Pivetta247.02-1 (66.7%)
Miguel Castro245.02-0 (100.0%)
Marcus Stroman243.02-0 (100.0%)
Jose Quintana236.03-2 (60.0%)
Domingo German222.02-0 (100.0%)
Logan Webb217.03-2 (60.0%)
Shane McClanahan216.03-1 (75.0%)
Chris Bassitt216.03-1 (75.0%)
Trevor Rogers209.03-3 (50.0%)
Jose Urquidy206.012-0 (100.0%)
Nathan Eovaldi205.242-0 (100.0%)
Keegan Thompson205.01-0 (100.0%)
Brett Anderson197.04-3 (57.1%)
Lance McCullers Jr.170.01-0 (100.0%)
Ryan Yarbrough167.093-2 (60.0%)
Vince Velasquez166.03-2 (60.0%)
Sean Manaea163.02-1 (66.7%)
Sam Hentges163.02-1 (66.7%)
Eduardo Rodriguez155.093-2 (60.0%)
Junior Guerra155.01-0 (100.0%)
Dylan Bundy153.03-2 (60.0%)
Zach Plesac151.243-2 (60.0%)
Julio Teheran147.01-0 (100.0%)
Johnny Cueto144.03-2 (60.0%)
Adam Plutko144.01-0 (100.0%)
Ryan Castellani137.01-0 (100.0%)
Alec Mills133.01-0 (100.0%)
Phil Maton131.01-0 (100.0%)
Alex Cobb130.02-1 (66.7%)
Joe Musgrove127.02-1 (66.7%)
Wade Miley125.244-3 (57.1%)
Travis Bergen125.01-0 (100.0%)
Bryse Wilson125.01-0 (100.0%)
Chris Archer123.01-0 (100.0%)
Pablo Lopez120.03-3 (50.0%)
Jose Berrios120.01-0 (100.0%)
Kwang Hyun Kim119.154-3 (57.1%)
Zack Greinke118.133-2 (60.0%)
Alek Manoah117.01-0 (100.0%)
Trent Thornton115.02-1 (66.7%)
Randy Dobnak115.01-0 (100.0%)
Chase De Jong109.01-0 (100.0%)
Miles Mikolas108.01-0 (100.0%)
Justin Dunn108.03-3 (50.0%)
Cristian Javier106.01-0 (100.0%)
Kyle Wright103.01-0 (100.0%)
Aaron Nola102.01-0 (100.0%)
Freddy Peralta100.01-0 (100.0%)
Daniel Ponce de Leon100.01-0 (100.0%)
Cal Quantrill100.01-0 (100.0%)
German Marquez97.194-4 (50.0%)
Matt Harvey94.05-6 (45.5%)
Garrett Richards79.03-3 (50.0%)
Zach Davies77.03-3 (50.0%)
Miguel Yajure70.01-1 (50.0%)
Adbert Alzolay70.02-2 (50.0%)
Tyler Anderson56.04-5 (44.4%)
Ross Stripling56.02-2 (50.0%)
Zac Gallen54.02-2 (50.0%)
Griffin Canning52.153-3 (50.0%)
Luis Garcia43.042-2 (50.0%)
Jack Flaherty40.02-2 (50.0%)
Collin McHugh40.01-1 (50.0%)
James Kaprielian38.01-1 (50.0%)
Vladimir Gutierrez33.01-1 (50.0%)
Huascar Ynoa32.01-1 (50.0%)
Ian Anderson30.01-1 (50.0%)
Yu Darvish28.01-1 (50.0%)
Spencer Howard28.01-1 (50.0%)
Stephen Strasburg25.01-1 (50.0%)
Max Fried25.01-1 (50.0%)
Kohl Stewart24.01-1 (50.0%)
Charlie Morton18.01-1 (50.0%)
Taylor Widener17.02-3 (40.0%)
David Peterson14.03-3 (50.0%)
Ervin Santana8.01-1 (50.0%)
Dinelson Lamet5.01-1 (50.0%)
Shane Bieber3.01-1 (50.0%)

Betting records as of June 7, 2021

A lot of handicapping for MLB revolves around starting pitching and how a team performs when a specific hurler is on the mound. Well, certain starters in 2021 have emerged as go-to bets when their team is tabbed as an underdog. Three starting pitchers in particular – Martin Perez, Kevin Gausman and Casey Mize – are raking in the profits for bettors early this season.

Martin Perez of the Boston Red Sox is the most profitable underdog starting pitcher in MLB at 5-0 in this spot with profits of $598 had you backed him and the Red Sox each time.

Kevin Gausman and the San Francisco Giants have a perfect 4-0 record when tabbed as dogs and Gausman is starting. Gausman is now the second-most profitable starting pitcher in this spot and has profits of $581 for $100 bettors.

Casey Mize of the Detroit Tigers is the third-most profitable underdog starting pitcher in MLB at 6-5 as a dog with profits of $575 had you backed him and the Tigers in this spot each time.

Just remember, this trend is only applicable when these teams/pitchers are underdogs, and doesn’t mean to blindly back the team just because that specific pitcher is on the hill.