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MLB Underdog Betting Report

Major League Baseball is into the stretch run for the 2022 season and moneyline underdogs are always a hot commodity. With MLB historically having the largest win percentage each season for underdog moneylines, it’s time to dive into the numbers for the 2022 MLB Underdog Report.

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We at Odds Shark love to find profitable angles and trends to help bettors approach a grueling MLB season and one of the ways to do that historically has been to hammer the underdog moneyline. Now past the three-quarter pole, there are some teams and underdog angles to take advantage of.

We will be updating this report with new data weekly all the way through to the final out of the World Series, so be sure to check back frequently. You can utilize these pitching trends at any of our top MLB sportsbooks, or lock in a bet over at Bovada:

2022 MLB Underdog Moneyline Profits

All profits listed based on $100 per bet.

MLB 2022 Underdog SU Records
SituationUnderdog SU RecordsProfits
OVERALL753-1133 (39.9%)-$8382.8
HOME285-422 (40.3%)-$4122.83
ROAD468-711 (39.7%)-$4259.97
LAST 3 DAYS16-19 (45.7%)+$809.0
LAST 7 DAYS39-47 (45.3%)+$1194.24
LAST 14 DAYS77-103 (42.8%)+$1249.48
LAST 30 DAYS161-236 (40.6%)+$1.0
DAY483-708 (40.6%)-$4208.24
NIGHT270-425 (38.8%)-$4174.56

Betting records as of August 31, 2022

MLB underdogs are winning outright 39.9 percent of the time, leading to profits of -$8,382.8 for $100 bettors. After a down year for dogs in 2021, it appears we’re well on our way to another favorable year for the baseball faves. We’ve had blips of productivity from underdogs, like the last two weeks, but there hasn’t been a consistent run for the dogs yet this year.


2022 MLB Underdog Runline Profits

MLB 2022 Underdog ATS Records
SituationUnderdog ATS RecordsProfits
OVERALL1096-838 (56.7%)-$2224.89
HOME382-325 (54.0%)-$330.61
ROAD686-493 (58.2%)+$105.72
LAST 3 DAYS20-18 (52.6%)-$32.56
LAST 7 DAYS52-39 (57.1%)+$320.04
LAST 14 DAYS110-77 (58.8%)+$1174.4
LAST 30 DAYS223-182 (55.1%)-$603.07

Betting records as of August 31, 2022

The underdog runlines haven’t been quite as bad for the dogs this season, but they still haven’t been profitable. Utilize these betting trends over at Bovada:


MLB Underdog Report - Days Of The Week

DayUnderdog RunlineRunline ProfitsUnderdog SUProfits
Monday115-84 (56.7%)+$679.5177-116 (39.9%)-$369.28
Tuesday164-145 (54.0%)-$2885.68108-190 (40.3%)-$4006.32
Wednesday154-122 (58.2%)-$577.85105-168 (39.7%)-$2205.8
Thursday114-97 (52.6%)-$1248.3977-130 (45.7%)-$2383.35
Friday161-134 (57.1%)-$1486.74110-178 (45.3%)-$2625.78
Saturday200-130 (58.8%)+$2005.72138-183 (42.8%)+$619.76
Sunday188-126 (55.1%)+$1288.54138-168 (40.6%)+$2587.97

Betting records as of August 31, 2022

Generally, it’s safe to be dismissive of such an absurd trend since teams/matchups and many other betting factors change each day, regardless of where it falls on the calendar.

But in Major League Baseball, it seems certain days just work out better for bettors. In 2021, for example, if you had blindly bet $100 on every underdog moneyline exclusively on Tuesdays, you would’ve made $4,072.74 in profit. In 2022, the weekends have been the big haven for underdog MLB bettors on the runline and moneyline.


MLB Underdog Moneyline Team Report

TeamUnderdog Win %Underdog SU RecordProfit
NY Yankees55.65-4+$252.0
San Diego52.819-17+$664.08
Philadelphia52.521-19+$941.24
Baltimore48.652-55+$2042.24
Texas47.335-39+$836.24
Seattle46.331-36+$362.57
Chi White Sox45.721-25+$192.28
Cleveland45.631-37+$482.28
Houston44.48-10-$34.0
NY Mets44.115-19-$56.76
Arizona43.339-51+$209.24
Chi Cubs42.939-52-$69.37
Tampa Bay42.116-22-$294.76
Cincinnati41.041-59-$7.75
Toronto40.010-15-$118.0
St. Louis39.220-31-$581.51
Boston38.724-38-$828.72
Colorado37.939-64-$466.76
Oakland37.743-71-$530.52
Kansas City37.440-67-$1008.28
Detroit37.440-67-$699.0
Milwaukee35.710-18-$529.52
Pittsburgh34.839-73-$1065.52
Minnesota34.816-30-$940.51
Washington33.337-74-$1103.76
LA Angels32.819-39-$1340.76
Miami31.625-54-$2276.8
Atlanta29.27-17-$898.67
San Francisco27.010-27-$1314.0
LA Dodgers25.01-3-$200.0

Betting records as of August 31, 2022

This chart is particularly helpful for our underdog bets, as some teams are just outperforming others when they’re not expected to win. So far one of the best MLB underdogs has been the Phillies. After firing manager Joe Girardi, the Phillies have gone on a run. Even with an injury to Bryce Harper, new skipper Rob Thomson has led the Phils to several big upsets and the third-best underdog record in baseball.

Look out for the Baltimore Orioles too. The O’s have played some solid baseball after calling up a few top prospects like catcher Adley Rutschman and have a +$2,042.24 profit as a dog this season.


MLB Underdog Starting Pitcher Report

PitcherProfitRecord
Graham Ashcraft+$1003.5210-6 (62.5%)
Martin Perez+$867.8617-8 (68.0%)
Michael Wacha+$759.5412-4 (75.0%)
Brady Singer+$734.1612-7 (63.2%)
Kyle Bradish+$708.2410-6 (62.5%)
Dean Kremer+$679.3410-5 (66.7%)
Zac Gallen+$666.9716-9 (64.0%)
Ranger Suarez+$660.7615-8 (65.2%)
Cal Quantrill+$637.116-9 (64.0%)
Tony Gonsolin+$633.3119-4 (82.6%)
Jose Berrios+$610.3319-7 (73.1%)
Jameson Taillon+$608.9219-7 (73.1%)
Logan Gilbert+$593.4716-10 (61.5%)
Tyler Anderson+$577.1418-4 (81.8%)
Drew Rasmussen+$544.6116-6 (72.7%)
Luis Castillo+$541.0711-8 (57.9%)
James Kaprielian+$538.4611-10 (52.4%)
Jose Quintana+$527.7714-11 (56.0%)
Dylan Cease+$527.1718-8 (69.2%)
Spenser Watkins+$503.919-9 (50.0%)
Jordan Lyles+$491.4513-13 (50.0%)
Kyle Freeland+$477.3612-13 (48.0%)
German Marquez+$469.0814-12 (53.8%)
Austin Voth+$468.398-4 (66.7%)
Triston McKenzie+$457.714-9 (60.9%)
Jose Urquidy+$448.3216-8 (66.7%)
Kyle Wright+$438.5818-6 (75.0%)
Matthew Liberatore+$437.015-1 (83.3%)
Bryse Wilson+$434.28-8 (50.0%)
Bailey Falter+$433.037-2 (77.8%)
Kyle Gibson+$421.915-10 (60.0%)
Aaron Sanchez+$419.436-4 (60.0%)
Sandy Alcantara+$402.8416-10 (61.5%)
Robbie Ray+$395.3417-10 (63.0%)
Kyle Hendricks+$391.779-7 (56.2%)
Tylor Megill+$387.877-2 (77.8%)
Ian Anderson+$385.6515-7 (68.2%)
Eric Lauer+$366.7915-9 (62.5%)
Chi Chi Gonzalez+$360.03-1 (75.0%)
Bryan Garcia+$355.02-1 (66.7%)
David Peterson+$351.3511-5 (68.8%)
Justin Verlander+$344.6718-6 (75.0%)
Anibal Sanchez+$335.03-5 (37.5%)
Jeffrey Springs+$323.1812-6 (66.7%)
Bryan Shaw+$322.02-0 (100.0%)
Chris Bassitt+$308.2316-8 (66.7%)
Steven Matz+$298.947-3 (70.0%)
Mike Clevinger+$295.9311-5 (68.8%)
Joe Musgrove+$277.3415-8 (65.2%)
Humberto Castellanos+$274.915-4 (55.6%)
Nick Lodolo+$271.997-6 (53.8%)
Max Fried+$268.2217-8 (68.0%)
Vince Velasquez+$266.06-3 (66.7%)
Alec Mills+$265.02-0 (100.0%)
Connor Overton+$263.03-1 (75.0%)
Paul Blackburn+$259.1910-11 (47.6%)
Shane Bieber+$258.0815-9 (62.5%)
Justin Dunn+$253.03-2 (60.0%)
Luis Garcia+$239.715-8 (65.2%)
Andrew Heaney+$231.888-2 (80.0%)
Carlos Carrasco+$227.4815-8 (65.2%)
Angel Zerpa+$225.01-1 (50.0%)
Alex Faedo+$225.06-6 (50.0%)
Brandon Woodruff+$219.8114-6 (70.0%)
Adam Wainwright+$215.3815-11 (57.7%)
Framber Valdez+$212.5117-8 (68.0%)
Tyler Wells+$209.8411-10 (52.4%)
Bailey Ober+$208.325-2 (71.4%)
JP Sears+$206.734-2 (66.7%)
Rony Garcia+$190.04-4 (50.0%)
Edward Cabrera+$185.965-3 (62.5%)
Adrian Sampson+$181.976-6 (50.0%)
Hyun-Jin Ryu+$173.644-2 (66.7%)
J.P. Feyereisen+$170.922-0 (100.0%)
Josh Winder+$167.524-2 (66.7%)
George Kirby+$166.1812-7 (63.2%)
Ethan Small+$165.852-0 (100.0%)
Kyle Nelson+$165.01-0 (100.0%)
Taylor Hearn+$158.347-6 (53.8%)
Johnny Cueto+$157.879-9 (50.0%)
Luke Farrell+$153.01-0 (100.0%)
Jakob Junis+$151.058-6 (57.1%)
Adrian Martinez+$148.03-3 (50.0%)
Nestor Cortes Jr.+$145.3415-8 (65.2%)
Kenny Rosenberg+$145.01-0 (100.0%)
Erasmo Ramirez+$140.01-1 (50.0%)
Denyi Reyes+$140.01-0 (100.0%)
Wil Crowe+$140.01-0 (100.0%)
Anthony DeSclafani+$140.03-2 (60.0%)
Chris Stratton+$138.01-0 (100.0%)
Michael Grove+$131.212-0 (100.0%)
Jimmy Herget+$130.01-0 (100.0%)
Luis Gil+$130.01-0 (100.0%)
Sam Long+$126.343-3 (50.0%)
Josiah Gray+$125.9710-13 (43.5%)
Ryan Weathers+$124.01-0 (100.0%)
Jon Gray+$123.8110-9 (52.6%)
Ty Blach+$123.01-0 (100.0%)
Beau Brieske+$118.196-9 (40.0%)
Gabe Speier+$115.01-0 (100.0%)
Ross Stripling+$113.111-7 (61.1%)
Dan Castano+$111.964-3 (57.1%)
Tommy Henry+$109.523-2 (60.0%)
Aaron Civale+$105.849-8 (52.9%)
Jose Butto+$105.01-0 (100.0%)
Erick Fedde+$101.6710-11 (47.6%)
Miles Mikolas+$100.3916-11 (59.3%)
MacKenzie Gore+$98.197-6 (53.8%)
Max Scherzer+$95.012-7 (63.2%)
Cole Ragans+$95.02-2 (50.0%)
Zack Greinke+$90.7210-11 (47.6%)
Jackson Tetreault+$90.02-2 (50.0%)
Trevor Williams+$88.055-4 (55.6%)
Keegan Thompson+$85.199-8 (52.9%)
Matt Wisler+$84.153-2 (60.0%)
Erik Swanson+$83.331-0 (100.0%)
Jeff Hoffman+$80.01-0 (100.0%)
Reynaldo Lopez+$76.341-0 (100.0%)
Bryan Baker+$75.01-1 (50.0%)
Paolo Espino+$75.05-9 (35.7%)
Jake Woodford+$74.631-0 (100.0%)
Andrew Wantz+$74.071-0 (100.0%)
Brett Martin+$71.431-0 (100.0%)
Merrill Kelly+$70.7213-13 (50.0%)
Ryan Pepiot+$70.465-2 (71.4%)
Nabil Crismatt+$64.521-0 (100.0%)
John Brebbia+$63.882-1 (66.7%)
Javier Assad+$60.01-1 (50.0%)
Reiss Knehr+$54.051-0 (100.0%)
Zack Thompson+$51.281-0 (100.0%)
Jalen Beeks+$50.03-4 (42.9%)
Tommy Romero+$47.621-0 (100.0%)
Luis Severino+$42.4611-5 (68.8%)
Chris Flexen+$33.2310-11 (47.6%)
Tucker Davidson+$29.243-4 (42.9%)
Glenn Otto+$28.639-11 (45.0%)
Joe Ryan+$26.1513-8 (61.9%)
Joey Wentz+$24.01-1 (50.0%)
Casey Mize+$20.01-1 (50.0%)
Tyler Mahle+$17.7311-11 (50.0%)
Touki Toussaint+$15.01-1 (50.0%)
Garrett Hill+$15.03-5 (37.5%)
Janson Junk+$10.01-1 (50.0%)
Josh Rogers+$10.01-2 (33.3%)
Jose Suarez+$6.747-7 (50.0%)
Tanner Houck-$0.572-2 (50.0%)
Chris Paddack-$1.13-2 (60.0%)
Cristopher Sanchez-$2.022-1 (66.7%)
Jason Alexander-$6.844-4 (50.0%)
Corey Kluber-$13.3914-11 (56.0%)
Corbin Burnes-$15.8216-10 (61.5%)
Nick Martinez-$17.985-5 (50.0%)
Cory Abbott-$20.01-3 (25.0%)
Jared Koenig-$20.02-3 (40.0%)
Daniel Lynch-$24.939-12 (42.9%)
Kyle Muller-$28.571-1 (50.0%)
Adam Oller-$29.04-8 (33.3%)
Yu Darvish-$32.3713-11 (54.2%)
Cody Poteet-$35.481-1 (50.0%)
Clarke Schmidt-$41.181-1 (50.0%)
Kohei Arihara-$45.01-2 (33.3%)
Chad Kuhl-$46.979-12 (42.9%)
Spencer Strider-$58.4110-6 (62.5%)
Sonny Gray-$59.912-8 (60.0%)
Wade Miley-$61.742-2 (50.0%)
Luis Patino-$62.912-2 (50.0%)
Spencer Howard-$64.443-5 (37.5%)
Rich Hill-$65.4410-9 (52.6%)
Julio Urias-$66.8216-9 (64.0%)
Dustin May-$68.751-1 (50.0%)
Jacob deGrom-$71.173-2 (60.0%)
Bruce Zimmermann-$74.885-8 (38.5%)
Garrett Whitlock-$78.714-4 (50.0%)
Luis Cessa-$80.01-2 (33.3%)
Roansy Contreras-$85.695-7 (41.7%)
Konnor Pilkington-$92.114-5 (44.4%)
Shane McClanahan-$92.4415-10 (60.0%)
Taijuan Walker-$92.8712-11 (52.2%)
Connor Seabold-$98.01-2 (33.3%)
Eli Morgan-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Dauri Moreta-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
DL Hall-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Xzavion Curry-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Josh Sborz-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Jaime Barria-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Cade Cavalli-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Luke Weaver-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Tyson Miller-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Andrew Bellatti-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Mauricio Llovera-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Caleb Smith-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Bryan Hoeing-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Sean Newcomb-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Miguel Yajure-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Wily Peralta-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Chase Anderson-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Richard Bleier-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Stephen Strasburg-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Jimmy Yacabonis-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Penn Murfee-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
JT Chargois-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Johan Oviedo-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Evan Lee-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Thomas Hatch-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Thomas Szapucki-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Jerad Eickhoff-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Robert Dugger-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Nick Neidert-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Anthony Banda-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Hunter Gaddis-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Jesse Chavez-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Scott Effross-$100.00-1 (0.0%)
Mitch White-$102.497-7 (50.0%)
Matt Manning-$103.03-5 (37.5%)
Zach Davies-$104.219-12 (42.9%)
Austin Davis-$116.671-2 (33.3%)
Andre Pallante-$116.685-5 (50.0%)
Nathan Eovaldi-$116.999-9 (50.0%)
Tarik Skubal-$117.9310-11 (47.6%)
Packy Naughton-$118.031-2 (33.3%)
Jack Flaherty-$120.01-2 (33.3%)
Lance Lynn-$120.587-7 (50.0%)
Austin Gomber-$121.877-9 (43.8%)
Dillon Peters-$130.01-3 (25.0%)
Mark Leiter Jr.-$130.01-3 (25.0%)
Pablo Lopez-$134.6813-13 (50.0%)
Justin Steele-$145.4811-13 (45.8%)
Eduardo Rodriguez-$145.484-6 (40.0%)
Matt Brash-$149.612-3 (40.0%)
Jhonathan Diaz-$150.01-2 (33.3%)
Josh Winckowski-$153.96-7 (46.2%)
Michael Pineda-$153.944-6 (40.0%)
Madison Bumgarner-$158.1511-15 (42.3%)
Zach Eflin-$158.745-7 (41.7%)
Bryce Elder-$161.182-3 (40.0%)
Lance McCullers Jr.-$165.521-2 (33.3%)
Max Castillo-$166.671-2 (33.3%)
Clayton Kershaw-$169.319-6 (60.0%)
Devin Smeltzer-$176.065-7 (41.7%)
Jordan Hicks-$180.953-5 (37.5%)
Antonio Senzatela-$187.138-11 (42.1%)
Jake Odorizzi-$189.399-8 (52.9%)
Tyler Gilbert-$190.02-5 (28.6%)
Marco Gonzales-$191.5711-14 (44.0%)
Walker Buehler-$194.957-5 (58.3%)
Chris Sale-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Josh Fleming-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Kirk McCarty-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Nick Nelson-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Corbin Martin-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Chris Ellis-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
John Means-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Mike Mayers-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Jimmy Lambert-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Tommy Nance-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Huascar Ynoa-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Max Meyer-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Garrett Richards-$200.00-2 (0.0%)
Kevin Gausman-$205.6514-11 (56.0%)
Gerrit Cole-$210.9917-10 (63.0%)
Michael Lorenzen-$213.276-7 (46.2%)
Tyler Beede-$230.01-4 (20.0%)
Domingo German-$230.373-5 (37.5%)
Kutter Crawford-$233.04-8 (33.3%)
Elieser Hernandez-$234.413-6 (33.3%)
Drew Hutchison-$237.04-8 (33.3%)
Reid Detmers-$250.838-12 (40.0%)
Chase Silseth-$253.332-4 (33.3%)
Cole Irvin-$253.859-15 (37.5%)
Elvin Rodriguez-$260.01-4 (20.0%)
Braxton Garrett-$262.335-8 (38.5%)
Zach Thompson-$268.087-14 (33.3%)
Vladimir Gutierrez-$270.02-6 (25.0%)
Dakota Hudson-$270.6611-13 (45.8%)
Zack Wheeler-$272.6312-11 (52.2%)
Cole Sands-$300.00-3 (0.0%)
Caleb Kilian-$300.00-3 (0.0%)
T.J. Zeuch-$300.00-3 (0.0%)
Daniel Norris-$300.00-3 (0.0%)
Nick Pivetta-$302.2612-14 (46.2%)
Matt Swarmer-$307.411-4 (20.0%)
Jose Urena-$311.033-8 (27.3%)
Cristian Javier-$312.919-10 (47.4%)
Shohei Ohtani-$313.7911-11 (50.0%)
Davis Martin-$321.881-4 (20.0%)
Charlie Morton-$338.1413-12 (52.0%)
Jordan Montgomery-$354.3414-12 (53.8%)
Freddy Peralta-$356.46-7 (46.2%)
Zach Plesac-$356.749-14 (39.1%)
Dylan Bundy-$387.4810-13 (43.5%)
Shane Baz-$390.01-5 (16.7%)
Sean Manaea-$397.6612-12 (50.0%)
Reiver Sanmartin-$400.00-4 (0.0%)
Alex Wood-$411.1512-13 (48.0%)
Alek Manoah-$415.9113-12 (52.0%)
Logan Webb-$439.6414-13 (51.9%)
Brad Keller-$444.318-14 (36.4%)
Patrick Sandoval-$445.349-12 (42.9%)
Dallas Keuchel-$448.044-9 (30.8%)
Zach Logue-$450.02-8 (20.0%)
Drew Smyly-$455.467-11 (38.9%)
Ryan Feltner-$475.03-9 (25.0%)
Noah Syndergaard-$482.359-11 (45.0%)
Matt Bush-$500.00-5 (0.0%)
Brayan Bello-$500.00-5 (0.0%)
Daulton Jefferies-$505.01-7 (12.5%)
Jon Heasley-$514.764-11 (26.7%)
Mitch Keller-$520.07-16 (30.4%)
Kris Bubic-$522.897-14 (33.3%)
Ryan Yarbrough-$563.792-7 (22.2%)
Jesus Luzardo-$570.093-9 (25.0%)
Michael Kopech-$581.49-14 (39.1%)
JT Brubaker-$624.98-16 (33.3%)
Lucas Giolito-$646.5710-14 (41.7%)
Carlos Rodon-$677.7712-14 (46.2%)
Adrian Houser-$687.155-11 (31.2%)
Marcus Stroman-$723.05-14 (26.3%)
Tyler Alexander-$760.01-9 (10.0%)
Blake Snell-$786.266-12 (33.3%)
Aaron Nola-$806.811-15 (42.3%)
Chris Archer-$811.058-16 (33.3%)
Aaron Ashby-$815.665-12 (29.4%)
Mike Minor-$824.03-12 (20.0%)
Dane Dunning-$833.678-17 (32.0%)
Yusei Kikuchi-$845.556-14 (30.0%)
Trevor Rogers-$911.145-14 (26.3%)
Hunter Greene-$929.435-15 (25.0%)
Alex Cobb-$941.917-14 (33.3%)
Carlos Hernandez-$976.02-12 (14.3%)
Frankie Montas-$1037.227-17 (29.2%)
Joan Adon-$1218.71-13 (7.1%)
Patrick Corbin-$1544.045-21 (19.2%)

Betting records as of August 31, 2022

A lot of handicapping for MLB revolves around starting pitching and how a team performs when a specific hurler is on the mound. Guys like Chris Flexen, Carlos Hernandez and Logan Webb were particularly profitable last year when their team wasn’t favored, but a new crop of underdog starters have emerged in 2022.

Texas’ Martin Perez has been one of the best dog pitchers in baseball this year. With a 17-8 record when not expected to win, Perez has returned profits of +$867.86 to Rangers bettors. Entering the season with a career 4.71 ERA, Perez is having the best year of his life in 2022 and underdog bettors tailing him have made a nice chunk of change.

The best underdog pitcher this year, though, has been Cincinnati’s Graham Ashcraft. The young flame-throwing righty has brought in +$1,003.52 profits this season with a 10-6 record as a dog.

Just remember, this trend is only applicable when these teams/pitchers were underdogs, and doesn’t mean to blindly back the team just because that specific pitcher is on the hill.