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MLB Cy Young Odds: Cole and deGrom Still Lead

New York Yankees Gerrit Cole and New York Mets Jacob deGrom are favored in MLB Cy Young Odds.

Starting pitchers are the linchpin of any successful MLB team and in 2021 MLB Cy Young odds at the all-star break, a pair of hurlers from the Big Apple are the favorites in the American and National Leagues.

According to the best baseball betting sites, the New York Yankees’ Gerrit Cole and the New York Mets’ Jacob deGrom remain the betting favorites to win the coveted Cy Young awards for the 2021 season.

Cole opened as the +400 favorite in the American League and is now down to -125. Reigning AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Indians has slipped to +3300, while a pair of Chicago White Sox fall behind Cole in the top three.

In the National League, deGrom also opened at +400 in NL Cy Young odds but has been so dominant that oddsmakers have already moved him to -500 (an implied 83.3% chance to win).  deGrom's odds were as low as -1000 prior to the MLB all-star break, but injury issues have presented slight concerns for the remainder of his season. Brandon Walker Buehler of the Dodgers and Zack Wheeler of the Phillies are deGrom’s biggest competition halfway through the season.

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Let’s look at each MLB league and determine some betting value for the Cy Young awards:

Who is Favored in MLB American League Cy Young Odds?

Odds to Win 2021 American League Cy Young
PlayerOdds
Gerrit Cole-125
Carlos Rodon+250
Lance Lynn+275
Robbie Ray+2500
Chris Bassitt+2800
Kyle Gibson+2800
Nathan Eovaldi+3300
Shane Bieber+3300
Aaron Civale+5000
John Means+5000
Lucas Giolito+5000
Sean Manaea+5000

Odds as of July 29 at BetOnline

Armed with a 2.74 ERA and a 0.968 WHIP through 20 starts, Cole of the Yankees is poised to win his first AL Cy Young Award. The ace has been dominant thus far in pinstripes and has mostly lived up to the very high expectations of playing in New York following his arrival before the 2020 season. Even with some shaky outings after Major League Baseball panned “sticky stuff,” Cole has begun to find his groove again.

The righty was just what the Yankees ordered when they signed him away from the Houston Astros, and their ace is 10-5 over halfway through the 2021 season. It’s rare that he puts the team’s offense in a bad position because he leads the league in both strikeouts and WHIP.

Even with the sputtering Yankees offense providing less run support than Cole and New York fans may have expected, he is dominating in both advanced statistics and traditional metrics. If the right-hander continues his run of good play, he should win 20 games and the AL Cy Young Award this season.

A potential value pick is Shane Bieber of the Cleveland Indians, who may be just as dominant as Cole but has “regressed” from the 2020 version of himself. Yes, he’s not leading in strikeouts, ERA, FIP, wins and K/9 like he did last season, but if Bieber rattles off a 10-start stretch like he flashed in 2020, he could vault himself into 2021 Cy Young consideration.


Who is Favored in MLB National League Cy Young Odds?

Odds to Win 2021 National League Cy young
PlayerOdds
Jacob deGrom-500
Walker Buehler+1000
Zack Wheeler+1000
Corbin Burnes+1200
Kevin Gausman+1200
Brandon Woodruff+1800
Freddy Peralta+4000
Max Scherzer+5000
Trevor Rogers+5000
Yu Darvish+5000

Odds as of July 29 at BetOnline

Arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball, the New York Mets’ deGrom is doing nothing but reaffirming that claim as the minus-money favorite in 2021 NL Cy Young odds. The Mets workhorse has been a stud through 15 starts with a microscopic 1.08 ERA and 0.543 WHIP. For once, the Mets have also managed to provide a little bit of run support and deGrom is 7-2 just after the all-star break.

In 2020, deGrom had another banner year with a 2.38 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 104 strikeouts in 68 innings of work. But he managed only four wins in 12 starts, victimized once again by lack of offensive support – basically the story of his career. In 2018 and 2019, he won the Cy Young both times despite a combined 21-17 win-loss record, furthering the notion about the most overrated stat in baseball.

Unless deGrom’s injury issues flare up, you can start engraving his name on the Cy Young trophy now. Even his closest competition own ERAs nearly double deGrom’s and strikeout rates that pale in comparison.


Making a Cy Young Futures Bet

Betting on an MLB Cy Young Award is a form of futures betting because you are making a pick based on an outcome determined at the end of the MLB regular season. The trophy is usually given out in mid-December and if you want to get a bigger payout, it’s best to lock in your bets sooner rather than later so you can take advantage of better odds. The closer it gets to the end of the season, the more the odds will change.

How to Read MLB Cy Young Odds

The above chart features the odds for each top player in the American League and National League. At your sportsbook of choice, the betting lines for the American League could look something like this:

Shane Bieber +200

Gerrit Cole +225

Lance Lynn +450

This means that Bieber is the favorite since he has the lowest odds and the highest chance of winning the prop, according to oddsmakers. If you were to bet $100 on Bieber and he won, you would get a payout of $300 – your original $100 is returned along with your winnings of $200.

On the other hand, if you strongly believe that Lance Lynn is going to shine in Chicago, a winning $100 bet on him would yield $550 – your $100 comes back along with your prize of $450.

Our Odds Calculator will show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount bet.