Much of the 2022 MLB season is in the books now. We know what teams are expected to do well through the rest of the year and which teams are expected not to do so well.
We know the Dodgers, Yankees, Astros, Mets and Braves are going to do well going forward. So are the Padres after landing Juan Soto from the Nationals and closer Josh Hader from the Brewers. It gets difficult to find value by simply betting on the MLB moneyline right now because of this.
Playing the totals might be a good way to find some value this late in the season. So let’s look at the teams that are more likely to hit the OVER or UNDER at home or on the road and then look at the more profitable teams for each.
Read our How To Bet On Baseball guide if you’re new to baseball betting or need a refresher on how to bet on the MLB.
First, the best OVER/UNDER teams at home and on the road:
MLB Best Home and Away OVER/UNDER Teams
|Team||Home OVER Record|
|Milwaukee Brewers||25-20-1 (55.6%)|
|New York Mets||26-21-1 (55.3%)|
|Miami Marlins||26-22-2 (54.2%)|
|St. Louis Cardinals||26-22-2 (54.2%)|
|Cincinnati Reds||30-26 (53.6%)|
|Team||Home UNDER Record|
|Houston Astros||29-19-2 (60.4%)|
|San Diego Padres||30-20-1 (60.0%)|
|Arizona Diamondbacks||30-20-4 (60.0%)|
|Los Angeles Angels||29-22-3 (56.9%)|
|Minnesota Twins||26-20-5 (56.5%)|
|Team||Road OVER Record|
|Minnesota Twins||29-20-3 (59.2%)|
|Philadelphia Phillies||29-23 (55.8%)|
|Atlanta Braves||24-20-2 (54.5%)|
|Washington Nationals||25-21-3 (54.3%)|
|Kansas City Royals||27-23-2 (54.0%)|
|Team||Road UNDER Record|
|Detroit Tigers||34-16-4 (68.0%)|
|Houston Astros||33-18-3 (64.7%)|
|Pittsburgh Pirates||30-19-3 (61.2%)|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||29-20-4 (59.2%)|
|Oakland Athletics||30-21-3 (58.8%)|
Takeaways From Best Home and Away OVER/UNDER Teams
There are a few significant takeaways from these tables.
The first is how frequently the top five teams hit the UNDER on the road. In 68 percent of Detroit’s away games, they’ve hit the UNDER. We’ll get to the top five profitable teams in each category, but I’m going to play spoiler here: Detroit’s 34-16-4 record in hitting the UNDER on the road would have returned a $1,465.43 profit.
San Diego going UNDER 60 percent of the time is a bit of a surprise when you consider they have the eighth-best offense in baseball with 478 runs on the year. But as you can tell by the Padres hitting the UNDER 60 percent of the time at home, their offense dries up at home. Their 209 runs at Petco Park this year represents the eighth-worst home offense in baseball. Betting the UNDER on San Diego at home this year would have returned $734.37.
San Diego currently holds the eighth-best World Series odds at +2200.
MLB OVER/UNDER Most Profitable
Here’s a look at the top five most profitable teams in baseball when it comes to the OVER/UNDER totals both at home and on the road.
|Team||Home OVER Profits|
|New York Mets||25-20-1 ($287.29)|
|Milwaukee Brewers||26.21-1 ($269.78)|
|St. Louis Cardinals||26-22-2 ($170.43)|
|Cincinnati Reds||26-22-2 ($144.02)|
|Miami Marlins||30-26 ($122.23)|
|Team||Home UNDER Profits|
|Arizona Diamondbacks||29-19-2 ($755.63)|
|Houston Astros||30-20-1 ($744.71)|
|San Diego Padres||30-20-4 ($734.37)|
|Los Angeles Angels||29-22-3 ($445.17)|
|Seattle Mariners||26-20-5 ($367.51)|
|Team||Road OVER Profits|
|Minnesota Twins||29-20-3 ($690.10)|
|Philadelphia Phillies||29-23 ($291.97)|
|Kansas City Royals||24-20-2 ($200.43)|
|Atlanta Braves||25-21-3 ($184.54)|
|Washington Nationals||27-23-2 ($174.00)|
|Team||Road UNDER Profits|
|Detroit Tigers||34-16-4 ($1,465.43)|
|Houston Astros||33-18-3 ($1,182.80)|
|Pittsburgh Pirates||30-19-3 ($851.87)|
|St. Louis Cardinals||29-20-4 ($675.40)|
|Los Angeles Dodgers||30-21-3 ($664.56)|
Profit margins clearly favor the UNDER here, specifically when teams are away. Detroit and Houston bettors would have profited $1,465.43 and $1,182.80 respectively if wagering $100 on the UNDER for all of their away games.
But there’s one team in the OVER tables that stands out, and that’s Minnesota. Betting $100 on the OVER for their away games would have brought a $690.10 profit. That’s well above the average $253.48 profit margin for betting the OVER on either the top five home or away teams.
The Twins offense isn’t awful with 470 runs on the year, which ranks 13th in baseball alongside Houston, but on the road, the Twins offense explodes. Minnesota’s 259 runs on the road are the sixth best for away teams in the league.
Hopefully, these data tables can help you find some value while betting on the MLB through the rest of the season.