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MLB Best Bets & Expert Picks: Yankees/Red Sox Under

Yankees Red Sox UNDER is our MLB play of the day

With just two weeks left in the MLB regular season, there is still more than enough time to seek out MLB best bets to make some fall profit. The beauty of baseball betting is that all the analytics, numbers and trends that the books rely on are publicly accessible for us. This allows us to compile MLB expert picks, poring over the numbers and trends so you don’t have to.

On this page we’ll pick out five weekly MLB best bets, providing an MLB expert pick for every day of the workweek. We’ll track the success of our best MLB bets so you can come back every week to help inform your baseball wagers.

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All of the below picks come from our best baseball betting sites, including BetOnline, Bovada and BetUS, for the week of September 20 to September 24, 2021.

Current Record: 8-10

Monday MLB Expert Pick: Reds/Pirates UNDER 9.5

The Game: Pirates vs Reds, 6:40 p.m. ET

Yes, the Reds have a great offense. But despite all the great right-handed power bats, they have stunk against left-handed pitching this year. Facing Pittsburgh lefty Dillon Peters tonight, the Reds have the fourth-worst lineup in baseball vs LHP. With a .239 batting average against southpaws and a .676 OPS, the Reds have scored just 162 runs against left-handers all year.

On the other side of this matchup, facing righty Vlad Gutierrez, the Pirates have suffered against right-handers. With both lineups facing a tough platoon disadvantage, this high OVER/UNDER line will not be reached.

Result: Reds 9, Pirates 5

Tuesday Pick: Red Sox -.5 In First Five

The Game: Mets vs Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET

On paper, Marcus Stroman should give the Mets an edge over Eduardo Rodriguez’s Red Sox tonight. But Stroman has allowed a .305 batting average and .821 OPS to current Boston hitters, and Rodriguez has held current Mets hitters quiet. With just six extra-base hits allowed to active Mets in 70 at-bats, Rodriguez holds the key for a Red Sox win tonight.

We’ll eliminate the bullpen uncertainty by taking a First Five Inning line on this one.

Result: Red Sox 4, Mets 2 (First Five)

Wednesday Pick: Padres/Giants OVER 9.5

The Game: Giants vs Padres, 10:10 p.m. ET

Despite flashing two of the best rotations in baseball on paper, the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants will be tossing out a pair of starters tonight with ERAs over 6. Pitching for the Padres, Vince Velasquez has allowed 15 earned runs in his last three outings, and Scott Kazmir has yielded five runs in his last seven innings pitched.

The veteran starters have bounced around this year and probably won’t last long in this game, but the offenses are both too talented to not take advantage of this weak pitching matchup.

Result: Giants 8, Padres 6

Thursday Pick: Blue Jays -1.5

The Game: Blue Jays vs Twins, 7:40 p.m. ET

The Blue Jays need a win tonight and we’re getting to the point in the season where need trumps trends. Fighting for a wild-card spot, the Blue Jays offense knows the importance of winning this four-game set against the Twins, and they’ll bring it tonight.

Minnesota starter Michael Pineda held this Blue Jays team to one earned run in 5.2 innings last week, but the peripherals show Toronto can get to him. He struck out just two Toronto batters last outing, walking two and giving up a homer, and the Blue Jay hitters owe him a few more runs.

Result: Twins 7, Blue Jays 2

Friday Pick: Yankees/Red Sox Under 9

The Game: Yankees vs Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET

This crucial Yankees vs Red Sox series opens with a great pitching matchup, but a surprisingly high run total. Boston starter Nathan Eovaldi has held opposing teams to three or fewer runs in each of his last eight starts and Gerrit Cole, for the Yankees, has dominated this Boston lineup. Cole has held active Boston hitters to a .690 OPS and .216 batting average against him.

Both righties should pitch deep enough into this game to force a low-scoring battle.


Check back every day this week for a new daily MLB expert pick.

How To Wager With MLB Expert Picks

When you visit a baseball betting site or online sportsbook, you can find odds and lines for every baseball game. You can sort through player props or just make a straight wager on the moneyline, spread or total of a game. Most spread/moneyline lines look like this:

Who will win between the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers:

  • Giants -1.5 or -200
  • Dodgers +1.5 or +200

In this MLB bets example, you can wager  on the Giants to win by more than 1.5 runs or the Dodgers to lose by less than 1.5 runs at near 50-50 odds, or you can place a bet on the moneyline. The moneyline odds for this matchup are listed as -200 and +200, and to win the bet you simply need the team you wager on to win the game. If you place $100 on the Dodgers to win at +200 odds, you would return $300 (your $100 back, plus $200 in profit). If you win a bet wagering on the Giants at -200, you would need to wager $200 to profit $100. Calculate exact profits using Odds Shark’s sports betting calculator.

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