NASCAR Cup Championship Odds

NASCAR Cup Championship Odds: Why Is William Byron Topping Oddsboard?

The 2024 NASCAR season is off with the running of the Daytona 500. A classic race that's full of chaos. And it didn't disappoint.

2024 NASCAR Cup Championship Odds

Odds To Win The NASCAR Cup Championship
DriverCurrent Odds
Kyle Larson+500
William Byron+600
Denny Hamlin+750
Chase Elliott+750
Christopher Bell+1000
Ryan Blaney+1100
Joey Logano+1100
Martin Truex Jr.+1200

Odds as of Feb 23.

NASCAR Cup Championship Favorite: Kyle Larson

One race down, 25 more (regular seasno races) to go. And Larson finds himself at the top of the odds board at +500. Should he be?

The No. 5 car Larson finished last season second for the cup. Netting 5034 points, just one back of the eventual champion Ryan Blaney's 5035. Already, that's some pretty good Cup-favorite credentials if you ask me. (Which you are because you're reading this.)

But that was last year. We've only seen one race on the year, the Daytona 500, and Larson finished 11th and leading for 7 laps. Picking up 35 points sees him ranked 5th in the sport. So if you're looking at this year alone I'm not ready to vault Larson to the top of the board by a 100-point margin.

NASCAR Cup Championship Value Play: Chase Elliott

An injury forced Elliott to miss six races on the season. And yet, Elliott barely missed the postseason.

In his 19 races on the year, Elliott finished in the top five seven times and in the top 10 another three times. Had Elliott competed in those six races he missed, there's a really good argument to say he would have made the playoffs. 

And from there, anything can happen. Last season in the 10 playoff races, Elliott finished in the top 10 five times. He finished 11th a sixth race. Even though he wasn't racing for much Elliott still had a strong showing. 

And we've seen Elliott win it all before (and come close). Elliott won the Cup in 2020, and then finished fourth in 2021 (eight points back of champ) and fourth again in 2022. 

A 14th-place finish at Daytona isn't ideal, but Elliott rarely does well there. Picking up 33 points and seventh in the standings is a good start for him. 

At +750 there's a lot of value on Elliott.

NASCAR Cup Championship Value Play: William Byron

I don't know why Byron isn't the odds board leader. He finished third last season with 5033 points. That's only two points back of Blaney. And then what does he do to start the 2024 season?

He wins the Daytona 500! 

I get he's still young at 26. He's still got to prove he can do it. But Byron has already basically booked his playoff ticket in the very first race. And was the second runner-up in the playoffs last year. That he's second on the board at +600 is a crime and great value.

Last 10 NASCAR Cup Champions

Last 10 NASCAR Cup Champions
YearDriverTeam
2023Ryan BlaneyTeam Penske
2022Joey LoganoTeam Penske
2021Kyle LarsonHendrick Motorsports
2020Chase ElliottHendrick Motorsports
2019Kyle BuschJoe Gibbs Racing
2018Joey LoganoTeam Penske
2017Martin Truex Jr.Furniture Row Racing
2016Jimmie JohnsonHendrick Motorsports
2015Kyle BuschJoe Gibbs Racing
2014Kevin HarvickStewart-Haas Racing

 

I know we make championship wins more about the individual (and for good reason – they’re driving the cars), but we can’t forget about the team backing them.

With a Blaney Sprint Cup win this year, Team Penske now has three championships in the last decade. That's the same number as Hendrick Motorsports

NASCAR Cup Championship FAQ

Who is the favorite for the 2023 NASCAR championship?

Kyle Larson currently leads the NASCAR Cup championship oddsboard with odds at +400. William Byron is second at +450. 

Who won the last NASCAR Cup championship?

In 2022, Joey Logano (Team Penske) won the NASCAR Cup championship. It was his second career championship.

Who has won the last five NASCAR Cup championships?

Here is the list of the last five NASCAR Cup champions as well as the car's owner:

  • 2018  - Joey Logano (Team Penske)
  • 2019 - Kyle Busch (Joe Gibbs Racing)
  • 2020 - Chase Elliott (Hendrick Motorsports)
  • 2021 - Kyle Larson (Hendrick Motorsports)
  • 2022 - Joey Logano (Team Penske)
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