NASCAR Cup Championship Odds: Byron At The Top Of The Field

We're deep into the 2023 NASCAR Cup Championship playoffs. Defending champion Joey Logano, missed the cut for the Round of 12 by four points. So we're getting a new champion this year. 

Willaim Byron is at the top of the odds board to win the 2023 championship. The no.24 car's odds are +330 to win.

2023 NASCAR Cup Championship Odds

Odds as of September 29

Why is William Byron The Favorite For The NASCAR Cup Championship?

Over his last six races, Byron has won twice with an average finish of 6.3. He's already locked into the Round of 8 after a win at Texas last weekend. Byron is taking his strong regular season into the postseason. 

And, honestly, that's all you can ask for in this sport. Remember, that NASCAR is a cruel sport. A driver can be taken out of any race for any number of factors. Debry on the track, their car randomly malfunctions, they get into an accident, or someone else gets into an accident. All of those can take a driver out even if he's leading the pack.

So when the books (or you) try to sort out who the favorite should be, assessing their recent performance is the best course of action (pun absolutely intended).

NASCAR Cup Championship Best Value

Who's got better value than the favorite and Byron for the 2023 NASCAR Cup Championship? Here are a few picks for you to consider.

Denny Hamlin (+350)

Denny hasn't been as dominant on the year with only three wins to Byron's six. But he's been a consistent presence at the top of the standings all year.

Compared to Byron, Hamiln has a better average finish on the year at 11.8 compared to Byron's 12.1. He's also got less fluctuation in his finishing position - however marginal - when compared to Byron. Hamlin's standard deviation is 10.3 compared to Byron's 10.6.

I know that last part is a bit mathy, but as we near the end of the year, consistency is key and Hamlin is the most consistent guy out there.

Chris Buescher (+850)

My long-shot pick here is Chris Buescher. Not that I agree he should be a long shot on the oddsboard.  

The no.20 car is third for points and well above the cut line as they head to the Round of 8. Like Hamlin, Buescher has three wins on the year. All three wins have come in his last nine races. 

Since winning at Richmond, Buescher has won three times and finished in the top five five times. His average finish in that period was 7.7. That's some incredible form. Buescher is getting hot at the absolute best time. I'm not going to go all in on Buescher, but I'll sprinkle a unit or two so I don't miss out.

Last 10 NASCAR Cup Champions

I know we make championship wins more about the individual (and for good reason – they’re driving the cars), but we can’t forget about the team backing them.

Hendrick Motorsports has won the NASCAR Cup championship four times in the last 10 years, more than any other side. Team Penske is second with two wins, both coming courtesy of Joey Logano.