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NASCAR Cup Odds: Larson Favored After Round Of 16

Kyle Larson is the favorite in the NASCAR Cup championship odds

The Round of 16 has concluded and we have now reached the second round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs with the Round of 12 beginning on September 26. When it comes to NASCAR Cup championship odds, regular-season champion Kyle Larson holds the shortest odds.

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2021 NASCAR Cup Championship Odds

Online sportsbook Bovada has updated its NASCAR Cup championship odds with Larson listed as the +175 favorite. He is followed by Denny Hamlin at +450, Martin Truex Jr. at +600, Kyle Busch at +900 and Chase Elliott at +1000 to round out the top five drivers on the oddsboard.

With the above betting odds, a winning $100 wager on Larson to win the championship would profit you $175. Our sports betting calculator tells us that a +175 betting line represents an implied win probability of 36.36 percent.

NASCAR Cup Championship Odds
DriverOdds
Kyle Larson+175
Denny Hamlin+450
Martin Truex Jr.+600
Kyle Busch+900
Chase Elliott+1000
Ryan Blaney+1200
Joey Logano+1600
William Byron+1800
Alex Bowman+2000
Brad Keselowski+2000
Kevin Harvick+2000
Christopher Bell+2500

Odds as of September 21 at Bovada

Not familiar with betting on NASCAR? Don’t worry, we have put together a betting tutorial to help you get in on the action.

Why Is Kyle Larson The Favorite In NASCAR Cup Championship Odds?

Kyle Larson has been the dominant driver in the NASCAR Cup Series this season. While that statement could seem subjective, the stats back it up. The No. 5 machine has the most wins (six), has led the most laps (1,905, almost 700 more than second place), has the most stage wins (14, five more than second), the most top-10s (21) and the most top-fives (16).

With that level of success, it should come as no surprise that Larson has climbed to the top of the NASCAR Cup Series standings. There was a stretch midway through the regular season in which he finished first or second in eight of nine races, including the all-star event. 

Quite simply, listing anyone other than Larson as the betting favorite in NASCAR Cup championship odds would be a massive mistake by the sportsbook.

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NASCAR Cup Odds: Value Pick

It is really hard to bet against Larson given how fast he’s been at almost every track that NASCAR has visited. However, that can pretty well be said for each of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers, with that team winning 12 of the 29 total races. There is another driver outside of Larson who I think is providing good value.

Denny Hamlin +450

I’ll add a note here that I liked Hamlin prior to the Round of 16 when his odds were +750, and he looked stout in that opening round, dropping his odds to +450.

Early in the season, Hamlin was always contending for a victory but could not grab the checkered flag. That drought came to an end in the opening race of the playoffs when he drove to victory lane at Darlington. Denny followed that performance up with a second-place finish at Richmond and was ninth at Bristol.

Now when it comes to playoff points, Hamlin does have 35 fewer than Larson right now, which puts him third in the standings, but the consistency has been there all season. He entered the playoffs 37 points back so he did gain some ground but will need some luck if he wants to close that gap further into the Round of 8.