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NASCAR Cup Odds: Larson The New Favorite

Kyle Larson is the favorite in the NASCAR Cup championship odds

The all-star race is taking place this weekend, meaning we are just 10 races away from the start of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. Martin Truex Jr. has been the favorite in the NASCAR Cup championship odds for much of the season, but Kyle Larson has now emerged as the front-runner coming off back-to-back wins.

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Online sportsbook Bovada has updated its NASCAR Cup championship odds with Larson listed as the +450 favorite. He is followed closely by Truex at +550, Chase Elliott at +700, Denny Hamlin at +700 and Kyle Busch at +800 to round out the top five drivers on the oddsboard.

2021 NASCAR Cup Championship Odds

Kyle Larson+450
Martin Truex Jr. +550
Chase Elliott+700
Denny Hamlin+700
Kyle Busch+800
Brad Keselowski+900
Joey Logano+900
Kevin Harvick+1100
Ryan Blaney+1200
Alex Bowman+1400
William Byron+1400
Christopher Bell+2200
Austin Dillon+6600
Kurt Busch+6600
Tyler Reddick+6600
Michael McDowell+7700
Matt DiBenedetto+8000
Aric Almirola+17500
Cole Custer+17500
Darrell Wallace Jr. +17500
Ross Chastain+17500
Erik Jones+25000
Chase Briscoe+27500

Odds as of June 8 at Bovada

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Why is Kyle Larson the Favorite in NASCAR Cup Championship Odds?

As mentioned off the top, Larson has won two straight races heading into the all-star race and has three victories overall on the season. Furthermore, he has finished first or second in each of the last five races and has seven podium finishes through 16 competitions.

The No. 5 machine has also secured 11 stage wins thus far, with Denny Hamlin the next closest with five. Lastly, Larson has led 1,126 laps, also the most in the Cup Series this season and over 400 more than second-place Hamlin.

All season, Larson and his Hendrick Motorsports teammates have been near the front of the pack and three of the four teammates – Larson, Elliott and William Byron – occupy the second, third and fourth spots in the NASCAR Cup Series points standings. Only Hamlin is outdueling them and sitting in first.

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NASCAR Cup Odds: Value Pick

It is really hard to bet against Larson given how fast he’s been at almost every track that NASCAR has visited. However, that can pretty well be said for each of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers with seven of the 16 total races being won by that team. There are two drivers outside of Larson who I think are providing good value.

Denny Hamlin +700

I spoke about Larson being so remarkably strong, but I also mentioned that he’s not leading the points standings, as Denny Hamlin sits in the top position. Though the No. 11 machine hasn’t found victory lane yet, it is tied for the most top-10 finishes with 12 and has nine top-five finishes, also tied for the most in the series. 

Hamlin will need a win to secure his spot in the playoffs, though I’m not too concerned about that. His consistency is top-notch and if he can find a little more speed in the playoffs, he’s definitely a challenger to win it all.

William Byron +1400

There aren’t enough good things that can be said about Hendrick Motorsports right now with Larson sitting second, Chase Elliott third and William Byron fourth in points. Of the three, Byron is the only one with better than 10:1 odds and has more top-10 finishes than the other two. It does seem that Byron isn’t quite as quick as Larson and Elliott and that could be just a matter of experience with this being only his fourth full season.

I think the consistency has been there for Byron and that will help him navigate his way through the playoffs. If he can be one of the Championship Four, anything can happen and at 14:1, I love the value.