The College Football Playoff first round wraps up with No. 5 Oregon (11-1 SU, 7-4-1 ATS) hosting No. 24 James Madison (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS) at Autzen Stadium. The Ducks enter as huge 21.5-point favorites at FanDuel, the largest spread of the opening round, with the total set at 49.5 points. James Madison is coming off an incredible Sun Belt season, but this is a massive step up in competition and a brutal place to have to prove yourself. The winner of this matchup will face No. 4 Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl Quarterfinal as per our bowl odds page.
james madison vs oregon Odds
Matchup Page: James Madison vs Oregon, Dec. 20, 7:30 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison Dukes | +21.5 (-115) | +1160 | OVER 49.5 (-105) |
| Oregon Ducks | -21.5 (-105) | -2800 | UNDER 49.5 (-115) |
Odds as of December 16th, 2025 at FanDuel
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James madison vs oregon Pick
James Madison’s run to the College Football Playoff is a great story. In just their fourth season at the FBS level, the Dukes went 12-1 SU, won the Sun Belt,and earned a spot in the 12-team bracket thanks to the autobid format. Unfortunately for JMU, the reward is a road trip to Autzen Stadium to face No. 5 Oregon.
The Dukes will try to grind this one out. The Dukes are built around the run, ranking sixth in rushing offense (240.8 YPG) and second in time of possession at over 34 minutes per game. Look for RB Wayne Knight to have a hefty workload, as the junior has piled up 1,263 yards at 6.6 yards per carry (top-15), while quarterback Alonza Barnett adds another 544 rushing yards and 14 scores with his legs. Defensively, the Dukes have been impressive on paper, ranking second in the country against the run (77.2 yards allowed) and sitting top-10 by allowing just 16.3 points per game.
The problem is the competition level. James Madison didn't face one ranked opponent this year. Arguably the Dukes toughest matchup was a trip to Louisville, where they suffered their only loss, 28-14, and managed just 3.5 yards per play. Oregon is a massive step up from anything they’ve seen all season.
The Ducks are elite on both sides of the ball, averaging over 36 points per game (ranked 11th) while allowing fewer than 15 (ranked eighth) and interrupting the run at 3.3 yards per carry. And that’s a problem for a James Madison offense that relies heavily on the ground attack.
Autzen Stadium only makes matters worse for the Dukes. Oregon is 19-1 in its last 20 home games, with the only loss coming to Indiana earlier this season—understandable. The Ducks have been favored by 20+ points at home five times this year and covered in four. The environment of a roaring, cold December night in Eugene is a far from what JMU is used to in the Sun Belt conference. Expect the Dukes to struggle with communication early.
It’s insane to be laying this many points in a playoff game, but Oregon has shown all season it can handle big home spreads. James Madison’s story has been fun, but it's going to end against a team built to make a deep CFP run.
James Madison vs Oregon Pick: Ducks -21.5 (-105)
*Pick made December 16th
james madison vs oregon Prop Bet
Alonza Barnett UNDER 141.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Alonza Barnett's 544 rushing yards and 14 scores suggests he's quick to lean on his mobility as his first instinct. And though it'll be difficult either way, it would be slightly less daunting to sneak past Oregon's defense on the ground than through the air. The Ducks have the second-best pass defense in the nation, allowing under 140 yards per game and sit top-10 by giving up just 26.2 passing attempts per game.
Barnett has hit the UNDER on this number in four games this season, including his Sun Belt Championship performance where he went 10-for-25 for just 93 yards. He also struggled against Georgia State in Week 5 with 74 yards, his season-low. If he thought those competitors were tough, he better buckle up for these Ducks. He won't even get much chance to eclipse this yardage with Oregon allowing opponents to complete just 49.3% of their passes, the third-best mark in college football.
james madison vs oregon Betting Trends
- According to our NCAAF database, Oregon is 4-0 SU/2-2 ATS when hosting Sun Belt opponents, though all spreads had them favored by 32.5-points or more
- James Madison is 0-2 SU/ATS when road underdogs of 21-points or more
- The OVER has hit in five of the last eight when Oregon is at home, average total 52-points
- Per Outlier, the OVER hit in four of the James Madison's last five road games
