Alabama vs Oklahoma: UNDER To Cash In First CFP Clash

The College Football Playoff kicks off with No. 8 Oklahoma (10-2 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) hosting No. 9 Alabama (10-3 SU, 7-4-2 ATS) at Memorial Stadium. Despite defeating them 23-21 recently in Week 12, the Sooners are +1.5-point home underdogs at FanDuel, with the total set at 40.5 points, the lowest total of all CFP First Round matchups. The winner of this matchup will face No. 1 Indiana in the Rose Bowl Quarterfinal as per our bowl odds page.

alabama vs oklahoma Odds

Matchup Page: Alabama vs Oklahoma, Dec. 19, 8 pm ET

Alabama vs Oklahoma Odds
Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Alabama Crimson Tide	-1.5 (-104)	-118	OVER 40.5 (-105)
Oklahoma Sooners	+1.5 (-118)	-102	UNDER 40.5 (-115)

alabama vs oklahoma Pick

Oklahoma already proved it can defeat Alabama after that 23-21 win in Week 12 and that first matchup still matters. The Sooners basically scored 17 points off turnovers, a Pick Six and capitalizing on fumble recoveries, and that was the entire difference. They didn’t necessarily out-play Alabama, Bama (406) nearly doubled Oklahoma’s (212) total yardage, they just capitalized on every mistake.

Turnovers will be the biggest swing factor again. Oklahoma needs them to stay in control, while Alabama needs to avoid them to stay alive. The Sooners also made life tough on Ty Simpson the first time around, forcing one interception and four sacks. Expect them to try the same approach, even if Alabama comes in a little more prepared.

Alabama has been inconsistent: needing a fourth quarter score to escape Auburn, 27-20, and then going scoreless through three quarters vs. Georgia in the SEC Championship, 28-7, where two costly turnovers hurt them again. The offense is still choppy, Simpson hasn’t been flawless under pressure, four picks in his last four appearances, and it’s hard to trust them to suddenly clean everything up.

Injuries don’t help either. RB Jam Miller might return, WR Josh Cuevas, who snagged a touchdown vs. Oklahoma, is still being evaluated and Alabama’s still got a few defensive linemen banged up like LB Justin Jefferson and CB Zabien Brown. That’s not ideal against an Oklahoma defense that loves to stuff the run (78.2 YPG, ranked third) and force mistakes (1.2 takeaways per game). Any weakened protection around Simpson could give the Sooners the exact openings they need.

All signs point to another tight, low-scoring game—just like the first one, where one or two plays decided everything.

Neither offense has shown much lately. Oklahoma has consistently been a top-10 defense and Alabama’s offense has been sputtering, mid-pack for yards (377.2) and barely in top-50 for points (29.2). The UNDER hit in 10 of the Sooner's matchups this season, while cashing in eight of the Tide's last nine.

Alabama vs Oklahoma Pick: UNDER 40.5 Points (-115)

*Pick made December 10th

alabama vs oklahoma Prop Bet

First Quarter Total U 7.5 (-112)

I'm already calling a low-scoring game and I think it'll start out slow, especially with Alabama playing safe and trying to avoid turnovers; throwback to Ty Simpson throwing a Pick Six late in the first quarter in Week 12.

Both sit in the top-25 for points allowed in the opening quarter, with Oklahoma (2.4) ranking third while Bama (3.4) is giving up much more.

alabama vs oklahoma Betting Trends

According to our NCAAF database, the UNDER has hit in three-straight meetings between Oklahoma and Alabama
The UNDER is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings when Alabama vs. SEC opponent
The UNDER has hit in six of the last eight games when Oklahoma vs. SEC opponent
Per Outlier, the UNDER hit in six of Alabama's last eight road games