Miami vs Texas A&M Odds & Picks: College Station Too Much For Canes

The College Football Playoff heads to College Station as No. 7 Texas A&M (11-1 SU, 5-7 ATS) hosts No. 10 Miami (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS) in the first round. Undefeated at home this season, the Aggies enter as 3.5-point favorites FanDuel, with the total set at 51.5 points. The winner of this matchup will face No. 2 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl Quarterfinal as per our bowl odds page.

miami vs texas a&m Odds

Matchup Page: Miami vs Texas A&M, Dec. 20, 12 pm ET

miami vs Texas A&M Odds
Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Miami (FL) Hurricanes	+3.5 (-115)	+134	OVER 51.5 (-106)
Texas A&M Aggies	-3.5 (-105)	-162	UNDER 51.5 (-114)

miami vs texas a&m Pick

Miami is walking into its toughest environment of the season. With only four road games at Florida State, SMU, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh, nothing comes close to Kyle Field. The home of the 12th Man is one of the loudest atmospheres in college football. And Miami’s road showings at Florida State, letting the Seminoles score 19 unanswered to nearly steal it, and at SMU (a 26–20 OT loss) raise fair questions about how they’ll handle College Station.

They’re also meeting the most aggressive pass rush they’ve seen. Texas A&M leads the nation with 3.6 sacks per game, making this a real test for Carson Beck and the Miami offense. Watch for Cashius Howell to apply the pressure as the senior's 11.5 sacks a fourth-most in college football. Beck has been sharp lately, 10 TDs and just one pick in his last four, but he’s facing an Aggies defense allowing only 195.2 passing yards per game, top-25 nationally. Miami has faced just one opponent ranked inside the top 50 in pass defense all season (Louisville, 201 YPG), and that matchup resulted in a 24-21 loss where Beck threw a season-high four interceptions.

Miami does enter the postseason playing its best football. Since the overtime loss to SMU, the Hurricanes have reeled off four straight wins, scoring 34+ points in each and allowing just 10 points per game over their last three.

But even with all that momentum, this is a different level of challenge. Texas A&M is undefeated at home (7-0 SU) and though its 2-5 ATS in that span, the average spread had them favored by 22-points and the lowest line was 6.5-points.

Texas A&M is one of the most balanced teams in the country. The Aggies pile up 264.8 passing yards per game (top-25) and 187.9 rushing yards per game (ranked 29th) and on defense they sit eighth in total yards allowed at home (250.8) and 25th against the pass (195.2 YPG). Their physicality up front and the energy Kyle Field provides make them a difficult matchup for anyone; let alone a Miami team that has had mixed results on the road.

Miami vs Texas A&M Pick: Aggies -3.5 (-105)

*Pick made December 12th

miami vs texas a&m Prop Bet

Carson Beck 1+ Interception (-116 at Bet365)

Though Beck has been picked off only once in his last four games, it’s a lot easier to protect the ball against weaker pass defenses, including an NC State group that ranks last in the nation, giving up 297.8 YPG. And honestly, that hasn’t always stopped Beck from turning it over. Even against an SMU defense that ranks third-worst in pass coverage (288.4 YPG), he still threw two interceptions.

The Canes ground attack is relatively modest, averaging a middling 144.3 yards per game. And even so, the Aggies are barely giving up 100 rushing yards at home. So, Beck will be forced to throw and his 10 interceptions this season show he's no stranger to turnovers. Like I've said, now he's up against the toughest pass rush he's faced this season, in one of college football's most hostile environments during the College Football Playoff.

miami vs texas a&m Betting Trends

According to our NCAAF database, Miami-FL is 3-5 ATS in its last eight road appearances
Texas A&M is 2-2 SU/3-1 ATS when hosting ACC opponents in College Station
Per Outlier, the OVER hit in five of Texas A&M's last seven games vs. top 25 scoring defenses