NBA Southwest Division Odds: Grizzlies, Mavs Nearly Tied In Chalk Spot

The NBA’s Southwest Division isn’t as competitive as some of the league’s other groupings, but there’s still going to be an interesting race to see which team finishes first. The 2022-23 NBA Southwest Division odds reflect that parity.

Sportsbooks have the odds to win the NBA Southwest Division, with the Memphis Grizzlies holding a narrow chalk position (+110) over the Dallas Mavericks (+130).

For more NBA odds, take a look at our dedicated NBA page, which also includes prop betting opportunities and other betting suggestions from the National Basketball Association.

NBA Southwest Division Odds

Why Are The Grizzlies (+110) Favored?

The division was a two-horse race last year and figures to be the same showdown between the Mavs and Grizz this year. The sportsbooks like Memphis, and it’s understandable why they’re slightly chalked. 

The Grizzlies won the Southwest Division a year ago, largely on the back of point guard Ja Morant, who exploded for a career year in his third season in the league. He’s a good bet in the 2022-23 NBA MVP odds, too.

Beyond Morant, the rest of the Grizzlies’ rotation was solid as well. Memphis averaged 115.6 points per game in 2021-22, the best in the Southwest and second-best in all of basketball. 

This is a high-powered squad that can easily repeat as division faves – hence the odds – but we don’t love this value at +110. That’s why we’ve got a few other sneaky picks for NBA bettors. 

NBA Southwest Division Odds: Best Value Bet

New Orleans Pelicans (+400)

Our hand is forced a little bit here. This isn’t the easiest division to recommend a long-shot pick on. 

Since the Grizzlies and Mavs are in a neck-and-neck odds race for first place – and the Rockets and Spurs have virtually no chance – that leaves us with the Pelicans as the only option remaining for big underdog value.

And although a surprise trip to the top of the Southwest is unlikely, it’s not impossible. Why? Zion Williamson, that’s why. Zion didn’t play a single game in 2021-22 but appears healthy and ready to go for the upcoming season. Coupled with CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram, Williamson could finally be on the verge of that MVP-level season that hyped-up NBA fans have been waiting for. It’s also worth taking a look at Zion’s odds to win NBA Comeback Player of the Year.

Is this the season New Orleans gets its first division title since 2007-08? Likely not. But a hot start could see the Pelicans’ +400 value evaporate. 

NBA Southwest Division Odds: Best Pick

Dallas Mavericks (+130)

The Mavs are a trendy pick this season, not just for the Southwest but also for the NBA championship. 

There’s no doubt the Western Conference is competitive, so we’ll save the debate about the Mavs’ NBA title merits for another day. At +130, for your bet to hit, all they need to do is win the division, which seems pretty doable. 

Dallas lost a couple of underrated pieces in the offseason such as Jalen Brunson and Trey Burke, but they’re still expected to be a high-scoring offense led by Luka Doncic. Obviously, Doncic, the NBA MVP favorite, is the key to a quality Mavs season – which probably has a ceiling of about 55-58 wins – and his success will stem from a quality relationship with head coach Jason Kidd. 

In his third NBA coaching gig, Kidd has matured as a bench boss and has the full support of eccentric Mavericks owner Mark Cuban. The team rattled off a 52-30 season last year, just a handful of wins shy of overtaking Memphis. At +130, these odds are still a little short, but right now our best pick is for the Mavericks to win the Southwest Division. 

Last 10 NBA Southwest Division Winners

Thankfully, the Spurs’ and Rockets’ reign has come to an end, injecting some much-needed fresh blood into the Southwest Division. Last year was the Grizzlies’ first-ever Southwest Division title (since the division was created in 2004-05). The sportsbooks like the Grizz to repeat, but there’s value on other squads right now, even the Mavs at +130. 

Understanding NBA Southwest Division Odds

When you visit any NBA betting site, you’ll see NBA Southwest Division futures odds displayed like this:

At -200, oddsmakers predict that the Mavericks have the greatest chance of taking the division. If you’re on board with those odds and wager $100, you’d get a payout of $150 – your $100 comes back, coupled with your winnings of $50. Or, if you like to take risks and think the Rockets are going to storm the Southwest, that same $100 would give you $900 – your original money is returned along with your prize of $800.

Our Odds Calculator will show you what you’d win based on the offered odds and amount you bet.

What Is An NBA Futures Bet On Divisional Odds?

Any bet that is placed weeks or months in advance is a futures bet. Here, the action is on a team’s shot of taking the Southwest. You can argue that all bets are done prior to a specific event; however, futures odds are released before the regular season even starts.

Because the action is released early, the lines are subject to change. As games are played, players get injured and squads make trades, oddsmakers will shift the odds to reflect that. If you see lines you like, take them early. Getting a team at plus money (+) will get you more value on a winning bet than if you were to get them at minus money (-).