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NBA Southwest Division Futures: Can Anyone Catch The Rockets?

NBA Southwest Betting Odds September 13

Most of the teams in the NBA’s Southwest Division made some offseason moves (for better or worse), which means there could be some value in backing other teams outside of the odds-on divisional favorite, the Houston Rockets.

Online sportsbook Bovada has the Rockets at -450 to win the division followed by the San Antonio Spurs at +600, New Orleans Pelicans at +760, Dallas Mavericks at +6000 and Memphis Grizzlies at +6500.

Here is a betting breakdown of each team’s chances to win the division:

Houston Rockets

Odds at -450

On paper, the Rockets are still the best team in the division and the second-best team in the Western Conference. The Rockets won 65 games for the best record in the NBA last season and the addition of Carmelo Anthony at the expense of swingman Trevor Ariza shouldn’t be a huge issue during the regular season (playoffs are a different story).

Where they end up romping over teams is on the perimeter as Mike D’Antoni employs his “3 or Layup” offense that leads to Houston leading the NBA in three-point attempts by almost nine more a game than the next-closest team. It’s not very fun to wager on a -450 prop but if you’ve got deep pockets, you can’t go wrong with the Rockets.

San Antonio Spurs

Odds at +600

The new-look Spurs are sure to turn some heads when opponents see DeMar DeRozan trotting down the court. San Antonio has moved on from Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, with the only holdover from their most recent championship being Patty Mills.

This team was kind of a mess last season with all of the Kawhi Leonard drama hanging over the Spurs but they still won 47 games with their best player missing all but nine of them. No other team other than Houston has won this division since 2010 so if you were seriously considering betting on a team to top the Rockets, this may be the team to do it.

New Orleans Pelicans

Odds at +760

With all due respect to Anthony Davis’s greatness, this squad doesn’t have the pieces to win this division. The Pellies made a couple of moves to acquire Julius Randle and Jahlil Okafor but the frontcourt hasn’t been their issue.

For starters, neither of those players is known for his defensive exploits and outside of Jrue Holiday, this team is incredibly weak in the backcourt. The Pelicans ranked third in points per game last season but ranked a woeful 29th in points allowed per game and they can’t expect Davis to continue to play like Wilt Chamberlain. I think this team finishes outside of the playoffs so I won’t be picking them to win the division.

Dallas Mavericks

Odds at +6000

If I had to choose a sleeper pick, Dallas would be it. The Mavericks had arguably one of the best offseasons as they traded up to acquire Luka Doncic in the draft and then fleeced the Clippers to get all-star center DeAndre Jordan. Finally resembling a team that can compete, the Mavs should be on everyone’s radar coming into the season as they have no incentive to tank again due to the Hawks getting their first-round pick in 2019.

Not much is known for how Doncic’s game will translate to the NBA but his winning pedigree cannot be overlooked as the 19-year-old has done nothing but win in his young career. Prior to the draft, he won the championship and MVP award in what is considered the second-best basketball league in the world and should be able to use his skills in the pick-and-roll to help a Mavericks squad that only averaged 102.3 points per game last season (ranked 28th). At +6000, Dallas should be a team on the rise.

Memphis Grizzlies

Odds at +6500

Don’t get me wrong, I like Mike Conley and Marc Gasol but their injury history is too terrifying to feel comfortable wagering on the Grizzlies. Conley missed 70 games last season (110 over the last three seasons) while Gasol has missed 47 over his last two seasons. When they’re on the floor, they can be a dynamic pairing as evidenced when they went to the playoffs for five straight seasons before last year’s flop. Considering Memphis has never won the division in the franchise’s history and its two stars are made of glass, feel free to move on from this one.

2018-19 NBA Southwest Division Odds
Houston Rockets-110
San Antonio Spurs+110
New Orleans Pelicans+2000
Dallas Mavericks+3300
Memphis Grizzlies+5000

Odds as of September 13 at Bovada