The Ole Miss Rebels get their first opportunity to tip off against a ranked opponent this season as they welcome the No. 11 Auburn Tigers to The Pavilion. Ole Miss is on an eight-game winning streak, but it lost both games against Auburn last year. The Tigers are in action for the first time since December 29 and they are a 3.5-point favorite in tonight’s game with the total Sportsbook at 150 points.
- Ole Miss is 8-0 SU and ATS in its last eight games (avg. winning margin: 17.13).
- Auburn is 5-1 SU but 1-5 ATS in its last six games.
- The total has gone UNDER in five of Ole Miss’ last seven games (avg. combined score: 144.43).
Auburn vs Ole Miss Game Center
Rebels look to extend their winning streak
In head coach Kermit Davis’ first season with Ole Miss, he is finding tremendous success and has his team playing at a high rate as it has won eight straight games. Most recently, the Rebels went into Vanderbilt’s Memorial Gymnasium and handed the Commodores an 81-71 defeat. They haven’t had that bad a schedule through non-conference play into the start of SEC play as their strength of schedule ranks 164th out of 353 teams, but they have handled those opponents with their strong offense.
Ole Miss is averaging 79.5 points per game this season to rank 43rd in the nation and that total climbs to 86.3 ppg when it plays at The Pavilion. Leading the squad is junior guard Breein Tyree, who is averaging 18.4 points per game and shooting 42.6 percent from beyond the arc. Overall, the Rebels have been shooting the ball extremely well, hitting 50.5 percent of their attempts from the floor for the ninth-best percentage in the nation. Just 29.3 percent of their points come from long range, which represents the 134th-lowest percentage in the NCAA. Defensively, they are limiting foes to 66.5 points per game (55th in the nation) and a modest 41.1 shooting percentage (66th).
How will the Tigers handle their long layoff?
Auburn takes to the court for the first time since late December as it has had 10 days to rest and reset before it begins SEC play tonight. The Tigers’ last time out, they absolutely swarmed North Florida for a 95-49 triumph. Their two losses this season came against then-No. 1 Duke 78-72 in the Maui Invitational and at now-No. 15 NC State 78-71. Auburn has seven players averaging six or more points per game, including four players in double figures, led by senior guard Bryce Brown. The Georgia native is averaging 15.3 ppg this season and has hit a team-high 41 treys while converting 36 percent of his three-point attempts.
On the season, the Tigers are scoring 83.7 points per game for the No. 16 mark in college basketball, but that average plummets to 75.8 ppg in games away from home. They like to earn the extra point by shooting from long distance as 38.2 percent of the Tigers’ points come from beyond the arc, the 43rd-highest ratio in the nation, and they average 10.7 made triples per game to rank sixth in the NCAA – Ole Miss’ opponents are shooting 34.5 percent from long range, which is the 155th-highest percentage.
Auburn allows 65.5 points per game to rank 40th in college basketball. Most notably it contests many shots and rates second in the nation by averaging 6.2 blocks per game. Additionally, with Ole Miss getting the majority of its points from inside the arc, Auburn holds opponents to 44.6 percent shooting from two-point range, which is the 24th-lowest percentage in the league.
Is the UNDER the bet to make?
Auburn and Ole Miss each have potent offenses and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 150 points. The Tigers have gone OVER 150 points in just two of their last eight games, while the Rebels have gone OVER 150 points in four of their last eight games with an average combined score of 147.38. Auburn should find room to shoot the three-ball as Ole Miss allows its opponents to shoot 34.5 percent from beyond the arc, but the Rebels like to work the ball down low and the Tigers hold their foes to a 44.6 shooting percentage from two-point range. Overall, I think the total is set pretty well but I would lean toward the UNDER.
My take on Auburn vs Ole Miss
I like the Tigers to cover the 3.5-point spread. This is the lowest spread that Auburn has had outside of its loss at NC State when it was favored by 1.5. Ole Miss has been on a nice streak recently, but this is the first ranked opponent it has faced this season and it gets most of its points from two-point range, where Auburn limits opponents to 44.6 percent shooting. The Tigers hit an average of 10.7 triples per game and the Rebels’ opponents shoot 34.5 percent from beyond the arc. Lastly, Auburn has had a tough strength of schedule and it scores more and surrenders fewer points than Ole Miss and I think it can cover tonight.
