March Madness rolls on! After one of the most entertaining Sweet 16's in recent memory, the Elite Eight gets underway tonight. Bettors have to be licking their chops as the dominant UConn Huskies battle Illinois before Alabama takes on Clemson.
Below, Tony Farmer, David Caraviello and I break down our expert picks for Satruday's Elite Eight matchups.
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Nick's Pick: Illinois +9
Matchup: Illinois vs UConn
UConn is the March Madness tournament's version of Thanos. Dan Hurley's team have hardly broken a sweat in defeating their first three tournament opponents by an average score of 28 points. They're far and away favorites to win their second straight National Championship. However, Illinois provides their toughest test yet.
The Fighting Illini employ an experienced rosted with seven of their top eight players playing at least 73 college games. Terrance Shannon Jr. has played like a man possessed, scoring at least 25 points in seven straight games, and is quickly climbing the Most Outstanding Player odds. The Illini have won ten of their last 11 games. They've covered the spread in six of their last seven and boast the scoring chops necessary to go bucket for bucket with the super villains of college basketball.
This was the play of the game right here. In the most crucial moment, Terrance Shannon Jr yet again shows us how special he is. pic.twitter.com/3UevVwYj7L
— Grant Dahlstrom (@GrantDahlstrom) March 29, 2024
On top of that, Illinois has the size inside in Dain Dainja and Coleman Hawkins to compete with Huskies' behemoth Donovan Clingan down low. Brad Underwood's squad is also one of the top rebounding teams in the nation, sitting 16th in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. UConn has been a destroyer of worlds, but 9-points is too high a line against the most efficient offense in the country, with the greatest scoring threat in the tournament in Shannon.
Nick's Pick: Alabama -3.5
Matchup: Alabama vs Clemson
We're in a for a treat as a classic college football matchup moves to the hardwood in the West Region finale.
The Crimson Tide have used a combination of hot shooting (41% from three), effective defense (held opponents to 37% shooting), and a reckless attack on the glass (44 rebounds per game) to reach the Elite Eight. Star guard Mark Sears has averaged nearly 25 points per game in the big dance. Buoyed by the performances of Grant Nelson (24 points versus North Carolina), Aaron Estrada and Rylan Griffen, Alabama has the scoring depth and versatility to cause problems for even the greatest defensive teams.
Look for Alabama's pace and transition scoring to cause problems for Clemson, much in the same way they overwhelmed North Carolina. I like the Crimson Tide's advantage on the glass to come through for us in the second half. Roll Tide.
Tony's Pick: Clemson +3.5 & Clemson ML (+142)
Matchup: Clemson vs Alabama
Between Jan. 16 to Feb. 3, Clemson lost a 2 OT game and lost three games by 2 point each to Georgia Tech, Duke, Virginia, and NC State. If the Tigers had won those four close games, they’d have entered the month of March on a 13-game winning streak and I think bettors and the sports media would view this team a lot differently.
Both offenses are top notch, and while you have to give that edge to the Crimson Tide, Alabama’s defense will be the weakest unit on the court. In its last 10 games (since Feb. 18) Alabama’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency via Barttorvik.com ranks 190th in the country. This is a defensive unit that can be exploited, especially inside, and Clemson has the personnel and confidence to attack and make that happen.
Tony's Pick: Ian Schieffelin Over 11.5 points (-110)
Matchup: Clemson vs Alabama
Schieffelin has improved a lot as the season went on. He only had one double-digit scoring effort in his first seven games of the season but he’s been playing better and has been awarded with more playing time. He’s averaged 30 minutes a night in the tournament and in a game with a 164-point total, that should be enough to get him to 12 points in this one. The junior does most of his work inside where Alabama can be vulnerable, but he’s also been known to hit a sneaky 3-pointer and is 4-for-10 from beyond the arc in the tournament so far.
Schieffelin is averaging 13.7 points per game in the tournament so far, and those efforts were in lower scoring games (77-56, 72-64, 77-62). Against a team like Alabama that players a faster tempo, there should theoretically be more opportunities for the 6-8 forward in this one.
David's Pick: Connecticut -9
Matchup: UConn vs Illinois
The Fighting Illini have kicked it up another level in this NCAA tournament, with guard Terrance Shannon Jr. using the Big Dance as his own personal playground. Illinois has won seven straight and covered in five in a row—but now it meets the immovable object that is Connecticut. The Huskies have been hammering opponents, with one single-digit result in their last 10 games, and they’ve covered the spread nine times over that span.
David's Pick: Clemson-Alabama under 164
Matchup: Clemson vs Alabama
Clemson and Alabama eclipsed a 160-point total when they met early in the season in Tuscaloosa, where the Tigers won 85-77. But defense has been the key to Clemson’s Elite Eight run, with the Tigers finishing under the total in four straight and eight of their last 10. Holding Arizona 10 points below its scoring average in the Sweet 16 was an eye-opening example of what this Clemson defense can do.
