The International Stadium Yokohama will host the 27th final in men’s soccer at the Olympics, between Spain and Brazil, on Saturday. The same stadium will also host the women’s soccer final, between Sweden and Canada, on Friday night after some rescheduling, as well as the bronze-medal match from the men’s section.
With gold medals at stake in both competitions and the best teams in action, we take a look at the teams to consider along with the Olympics soccer odds for the final matches at Tokyo 2020.
According to Olympics soccer odds, Brazil (-130) is the slight favorite to win the gold medal in the men’s section. In the women’s section, though, Sweden is heavily favored to win the gold medal with Olympics soccer odds of -225.
For more information about the other sports from the biggest athletic event in the world, check out Odds Shark’s dedicated Olympics page.
How to bet on the Olympics | Odds for most gold medals | Odds for most medals
Olympic Men’s Soccer Odds
| Country | Odds |
|---|---|
| Spain | -130 |
| Brazil | +100 |
Favorites To Win the Olympics Soccer Men’s Tournament
The soccer tournament has come down to just two teams to decide the gold medal. The pre-tournament favorites have made it all the way to the final. Which team has the edge?
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Brazil (-130)
The Brazilians are now through to a record fifth appearance in the final of a men’s soccer event at the Olympics. Even though there were various degrees of difficulty throughout the tournament, this appearance never really looked in doubt. Brazil has one of the strongest rosters at these Olympics and that has been evident right from the start.
“Playing the final of the Olympics is a dream,” Brazil coach Andre Jardine said after the match against Mexico. “The film I also saw tonight was the film of life. Everything we’ve gone through. Although we didn’t win in the 90 minutes, we took more risks. Spain is coming with its maximum force. They’ve formed a strong team over the course of the tournament.”
Route to the final
Brazil has played five matches so far, winning three and drawing two. After a goalless draw against Mexico after regulation time, Brazil was far too good in the penalty shootout, which confirmed their spot in this final. Impressively, they have conceded just three goals at this tournament so far; two of those came in the competition opener against Germany in a 4-2 win.
Key quote
“There’s one game left. We need to maintain our focus and concentration. It’s very difficult to win games when you face such different opponents. This requires a vast adaptation. We have a staff that controls that very well and gives us the necessary information and it has given results. We just need to take one more step,” Dani Alves said.
Value Pick For The Olympics Soccer Men’s Tournament
Spain (+100)
In a pedantic setting, it would be completely unfair to label Spain as a value pick because they have been excellent through this tournament. In fact, they started the Olympics as favorites and some would argue they still are despite Olympics soccer odds of +100. In terms of precedence, Spain is unlikely to be blinded by the harsh spotlight of an Olympics final considering they have made this stage on three occasions previously. Spain last won gold at the Olympics in 1992 at home, in the Barcelona Games.
Spain has scored eight goals at this tournament. Seven of them have come after the 60th minute, an indication that they follow the senior side’s approach of keeping the ball, maintaining possession and then striking late as was the case in the semifinal against Japan. Marco Asensio’s stunning curling strike with his left foot in extra time helped avoid the unpredictability of penalties.
Route to the final
Like Brazil, Spain has also been exemplary defensively. It can often be easy to move the ball too quickly in these U-23 matches, which results in plenty of space for opponents on the counter-attack. But the Spaniards have resisted that temptation excellently. In fact, they have also allowed just three goals at these Olympics, with two coming in one match (a 2-2 draw against Ivory Coast which Spain went on to win 5-2 after extra time). Spain has kept three clean sheets so far – one more could seal the deal.
Key Quote
“They are a quality side, we know that and we know that if we are going to win the gold medal, we are going to have to play the best teams here,” Spain defender Eric Garcia said.
Betting Strategy for the Olympics Soccer Men’s Tournament
In the last four matches for Brazil, three of them were UNDER 1.5 goals. In the last four matches for Spain, two of them were UNDER 1.5 goals. That’s a vital statistic because it’s indicative that this will not be a high-scoring final. And that’s also important to note because one goal could well be the deciding strike here.
These Olympics soccer odds suggest that a Spain win will simply double your money. That seems like a worthy proposition. I would certainly not be looking at a regulation-time result or a “Win/Draw/Win” as the market is called on sportsbooks. That is because a draw after normal time is not implausible. Considering how close both these teams are together, backing Spain is the better decision on account of the depth of their squad, incredible defensive strength as well as the higher payout.
There is also the bronze-medal match to be played on Friday. That match has been moved up from 8 p.m. local time to 6 p.m. local to accommodate the women’s final, which will be pushed to later in the evening.
Favorites To Win the Olympics Soccer Men’s Bronze Medal
Mexico will be aiming to continue their run of medals at the Olympics while a historical bronze for the hosts will certainly change the outlook of the sport in Japan.
| Country | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mexico | -110 |
| Japan | -120 |
Mexico (-110)
There are no clear favorites for the bronze medal match, to be played on August 6, as you might have noticed with these Olympics soccer odds of -110. But if you were to look at one team with a little more interest, it would be Mexico, especially considering they won the gold medal back in 2012.
Key quote
“We are saddened not to be in the final but all is not lost,” Mexico midfielder Uriel Antuna said. “We now have to battle for the bronze medal. We are a family and we fought until the end. Penalties are a lottery and we got the worst of it. We must bounce back and support those teammates that missed the penalties. They have all my support. The team is still united and we are going to fight for that medal.”
Japan (-120)
Hearts were broken for home supporters as Japan’s quest for a gold medal in soccer was ended by a fantastic strike by Asensio in extra time after close to 120 minutes of diligent defending. Still, Japan has plenty to play for, having not won a medal in soccer since the event moved to an under-23 tournament back in 1992. Japan did finish fourth in the London Olympics in 2012, their best result with this format. Without the restriction of age, Japan’s best result was bronze back in 1968.
Key quote
“Ever since the draw was made, I’ve known all along that if we got there, our semifinal was going to be against Spain,” Takefusa Kubo said. “I’ve been taking it one game at a time so far, but this is where I bring it 100 percent, no, 120 percent, 150 percent.”
Betting Strategy for the Olympics Bronze-Medal Match
This is not an easy decision to make but Mexico has been excellent as a soccer side for a long time now. While there is a sense of history around host Japan and their first medal in a while, they might just not have the same defensive depth they showed against Spain. For this particular match, I’d be backing Mexico to eventually win, maybe even in the shootout, to take the bronze medal, a podium finish they are not unaccustomed to.
| Country | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sweden | -225 |
| Canada | +175 |
Note: This match has been pushed back a bit with concerns about the heat in Tokyo. The match will now begin at 9 p.m. local time. Both head coaches were welcoming of the decision. The venue has also been changed, and the final will now be played at the Yokahoma Stadium as there are other events scheduled to take place at the Olympic Stadium during the evening.
“It’s a gold-medal match. They would have played morning, night. They were ready,” Canadian head coach Bev Priestman said Thursday at a press conference. “But I think the change makes absolute sense for the spectacle of what the game could be.”
Favorites To Win the Olympics Soccer Women’s Tournament
The pre-tournament favorites are not in the final. Both USA and Netherlands were beaten earlier in the tournament to leave the gold medal for the women open for the taking.
Sweden (-225)
The Swedes have been the standout in soccer at these Olympics and have not lost a match yet at this tournament, including a 1-0 win in the semifinal against Australia. Like the finalists in the men’s section, Sweden has also conceded just three goals, which is even more commendable because of the openness in the women’s game, which allows pockets of space on the pitch to be picked apart with crisp passing. According to Odds Shark’s calculator, Sweden has an implied probability to win of 69.23 percent, according to their Olympics soccer odds of -225.
Route to the final
Sweden opened the tournament with a telling statement against USA, beating the favorites 3-0 in a shock defeat. It was not a shock that Sweden won but their clinical style of play, both offensively and defensively, set the tone for the rest of the tournament. Then came three successive wins by a margin of two goals: 4-2 against Australia, 2-0 against New Zealand and 3-1 against Japan before a solid performance in the semis sealed their spot in the final.
Key quote
“It feels good that our desire for a later kickoff has been well received, and that we now have a match time that is better suited to the players in terms of the heat,” the head of Sweden’s women’s team, Marika Domanski Lyfors, said in a statement.
Canada (+175)
Firstly, credit to Canada for staying consistent right through the tournament. They were richly rewarded for their work and diligence when those same characteristics helped put in a 1-0 win against tournament favorites USA in the semis. That was their first win against the Americans since 2001. However, they have plenty of work ahead of them to conquer a Swedish team that has been the team to beat at these Olympic Games.
Route to the final
Canada opened the tournament with a 1-1 draw against host Japan before a 2-1 win against Chile all but ensured a spot in the knockouts. Canada drew 0-0 with Brazil in the quarterfinal but scored in extra time before beating USA in the semis in undoubtedly their best result of the tournament.
Key quote
“I know this group is so good at adapting, so we were ready for the 11 a.m. kickoff,” Canada’s Ashley Lawrence said. “But I think it’s great that we can play at 9 p.m. Just with the weather and for both teams, it’s going to make for a better game.”
Betting Strategy for the Olympics Soccer Women’s Tournament
Out of five matches, Canada has drawn three after regulation time. While their defense has been exceptional, also conceding just three goals at this tournament, there is a sense that there is a lack of offensive creativity in the final third. That could be a problem against this Swedish team, which has been terrific in its offensive phases.
That is arguably the most influential difference between these two teams because they both are in strong form and have performed well above expectations at these Olympics. With respect to Canada, they might not match up well with Sweden while transitioning from the middle to the final third and could even face a problem in preventing Sweden from doing that. As a result, I’d be backing Sweden to win in regulation time, even with lower Olympics soccer odds of just -225.
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