Premier League Golden Boot Odds: Erling Haaland Early Favorite

The 2022-23 English Premier League season is set to begin this week. Last year’s top scorer award was shared by Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah and Tottenham’s Heung-Min Son, who both scored 23 goals over the 2021-22 campaign.

This year, the early favorite to win the Premier League Golden Boot is Manchester City’s Erling Haaland at +375. Mohamed Salah holds the second-best odds at +500 while Tottenham’s Harry Kane rounds out the top three with odds of +550.

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Premier League Golden Boot Odds

Odds as of August 2 from Bovada

Why Is Erling Haaland The Premier League Golden Boot Favorite?

Man City brought in the young Norwegian striker for £51 million from the German side Borussia Dortmund. In 2021-22, Haaland finished 10th for the European Golden Shoe with 22 goals in the Bundesliga. 

He is absolutely lethal in front of the net. Compared to forwards who played at least 2,114 minutes across the top five European leagues last season, he is in the 98th percentile for non-penalty goals per 90 (0.81), non-penalty expected goals per 90 (0.67) and non-penalty expected goals and assists per 90 (0.93).

Not to mention that Haaland converted 71 percent of the shots he put on target last season. That’s better than players like Salah (47%) and Son (49%).

The Manchester City striker is already one of the elite goal scorers on the entire European continent. And he just turned 22 in July. He’s only going to get better over the years.

Putting $100 on Erling Haaland to win the Premier League Golden Boot would return a $375 profit if he can score more than anyone else this season.

It’s important to note that no player brought in from outside the Premier League has won the Golden Boot in his first year in England. Perhaps the young Man City striker changes that this season?

Manchester City currently holds the best Premier League title odds at -145. See our EPL picks and insights for the 2022-23 Premier League title here.

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Harry Kane (+550)

Kane has won the Premier League Golden Boot three times. Only Thierry Henry has won this prestigious award four times. Another goal-scoring title this year would put Kane level with the legendary Arsenal striker.

So can he do it this season? There’s no reason to suggest he can’t.

Tottenham went out and spent over £90 million on transfers to bolster the rest of their squad. But perhaps the best piece of business for someone like Kane was one that didn’t cost Tottenham anything in transfers: acquiring Ivan Perisic from Inter Milan on a free transfer.

Among fullbacks who played at least 3,351 minutes in the top five European leagues last season, Perisic is in the 99th percentile for touches in the attacking penalty area per 90 (5.24) and expected assists per 90 at 0.25. The Croatian knows how to put the ball in a dangerous area for poachers like Kane to pounce and convert.

Harry Kane is the favorite to win the 2022 World Cup Golden Boot with +700 odds.

Darwin Nunez (+1200)

Liverpool paid a club-record £85 million to Portuguese side Benfica for the Uruguayan striker on the promise that he can fill the net.

Last season, Nunez scored 34 goals across all competitions for Benfica. He was also the top scorer in the Portuguese league with 26 goals in ’21-22.

So far, Nunez has proven to be as advertised. The 23-year-old scored four goals against Leipzig in a preseason appearance for the Reds, then tallied against Manchester City nine days later to secure Liverpool their first Community Shield in 16 years.

Nunez enters the Premier League with the best goals per minute by any player who played over 1,000 minutes across six of Europe’s top leagues in 2021-22 with a goal every 76 minutes.

Again, no imported player has ever won the Golden Boot in his first year in England, but there’s a real chance that streak ends in ’22-23.

According to our odds calculator, a winning $100 bet on Nunez to take the Premier League Golden Boot would return a $1,200 profit.