Erling Haaland was the runaway early favorite to win the Premier League Golden Boot and through five weeks of the 2022-23 season, we can all see why. The young Norwegian has an incredible 10 goals to his name and is four ahead of the next-best goal scorer in the EPL so far – an impressive cushion to begin the season.
Haaland is now the overwhelming favorite to take the Golden Boot with odds at -350 according to sportsbook Sportsbook. Tottenham’s Harry Kane slides up to second on the oddsboard at +900. Arsenal’s Gabriel Jesus closes out the top three with odds at +1100.
Along with the Premier League Golden Boot odds, go check out our Premier League computer picks page for game predictions for each matchday.
For more information, check out our How to Bet on Soccer page. You can also take a look at our dedicated page for the latest EPL betting news.
Premier League Golden Boot Odds
|Erling Haaland||Manchester City||-350|
|Wilfred Zaha||Crystal Palace||+5000|
|Marcus Rashford||Manchester United||+5000|
|Cristiano Ronaldo||Manchester United||+6600|
Odds as of September 6 at Sportsbook
EPL Golden Boot Favorite: Erling Haaland Locking Up Top Scorer Odds
Ten goals in six games. Incredible. Consider that last year’s Golden Boot Sportsbooks (Mohamed Salah and Heung-min Son) needed 23 goals to win the top scorer award. Haaland is nearly halfway (44 percent) to matching their production from 2021-22 but in 16 percent of the game time. Again, absolutely incredible production from Haaland.
Manchester City’s striker has scored in every fixture this season but one, a 4-0 City win over Bournemouth. Currently, he’s on a four-game goal streak with eight goals. Through six games on the season, he’s converting 0.64 shots on target to goals, while on a per-90 basis he is creating 1.37 expected goals and 1.22 non-penalty expected goals.
Whoever negotiated Haaland’s transfer from Dortmund to Manchester City needs to be promoted immediately because it’s looking to be the biggest steal in not only the 2022 summer transfer window but in the Premier League. Dortmund could have and probably should have sold Haaland for at least another £30 million on top of what City paid for him – an incredible piece of business from the Citizens.
Haaland’s Manchester City holds the best EPL title odds at -145, representing implied odds of 59.18 percent to win according to our odds calculator.
Best Value for Premier League Golden Boot
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Aleksandar Mitrovic (+2000)
I’ve been singling out Mitrovic as a Golden Boot value pick for weeks now. The Fulham striker has rewarded that faith with six goals to open the campaign. That’s already double his goal-scoring production from 2020-21 when Fulham was last in the Premier League.
The issue, and likely why Mitro’s odds haven’t changed too much from a few weeks back, is who he plays for. With 62 shot-creating actions from live passes, Fulham is one of the worst shot-creating teams in the Premier League. Only Bournemouth is worse with 38 shot-creating actions. That’s not enough service to sustain the type of goal scoring Mitrovic will need to compete with Haaland for this award.
Perhaps the transfer deadline acquisitions of Willian, Daniel James and Carlos Vinicius will give them what they’re missing.
At +2000, Mitrovic’s implied odds to win the Premier League Golden Boot are at 4.76 percent according to our odds calculator. A winning bet on Mitrovic would return $2,000.
Think Mitrovic won’t just dominate England but the World Cup too? You can also bet on him winning the 2022 World Cup Golden Boot with +5000 odds.
Mohamed Salah (+1600)
Getting a three-time EPL Golden Boot Sportsbook at +1600 could be excellent value here. But there’s a reason for that. Having only two goals through six games is uncharacteristic for the Egyptian striker. In the first six games of the ’20-21 season, he scored six, while last season he had five goals through his first six games.
Salah isn’t only failing to score, he’s failing to create. His 0.42 expected goals per 90 on the season is the lowest since he joined Liverpool in 2017-18. However, Liverpool hasn’t been at their best to open the year. The EPL Sportsbook from 2019 has been sluggish to start the year with nine points out of a possible 18.
An expected turn in form for Liverpool should see a turn in form for Mohamed Salah as well. A winning $100 bet on him to turn things around and win his fourth EPL Golden Boot would net a $1,600 profit.
Premier League Golden Boot Best Bet: Erling Haaland
I hope you placed money on Haaland to win the EPL Golden Boot earlier. Just two weeks ago, the City striker’s odds were +150. Of course, since then the Norwegian put seven balls in the back of the net.
The safest course of action here is still to put money on Haaland to win it. But at this point you might want to wait for the line to potentially go down before doing so.