English Premier League Relegation Odds

Premier League Relegation Odds: Three Up, Three Down

It's done. All three promoted sides at the start of the 2023-24 Premier League campaign have been relegated. 

Even points deductions to Everton and Nottingham Forest were enough to keep promoted sides above the drop zone and in the league for another year. 

Premier League Relegation Odds

Odds to Be Relegated From English Premier League In 2023-24
TeamOpening Odds
Luton Town-275
Sheffield United-175

Odds from August 11

This is the first season since 1997-98 where all three promoted teams were relegated. That year Bolton, Barnsley and Palace all came up to the Prem and faced the drop at the end of the season. 

Sheffield, Burnley and Luton weren't good enough, winning no more than six games, and were horrific defensively. The three relegated squads have the three worst defensive records in the league allowing a ton of goals. Sheffield allowed 101, Burnley allowed 76 while Luton let in 81 goals. That's the 20th, 18th and 19th worst defensive records in the league, respectively.

Teams coming up to the Prem usually don't have the quality to go toe-to-toe with the other teams in the league. They'll need to defend a lot. Over the past five seasons (not counting the 23-24 campaign), there have been eight promoted sides that avoided relegation. Of those eight promoted sides that stayed up, six held a defensive record above 18th.

Promoted Sides Defensive Records
YearPromoted Sides That Stayed UpGoals Against (Rank)
Nottingham Forest
53 (10)
71 (18)
68 (17)
2021-22Brentford56 (12)
2020-21Leeds United54 (14)
2019-20Aston Villa
67 (19)
39 (4)
2018-19Wolves46 (6)


So word of warning to the three sides coming up from the Championship. Get your defenses in order. You're going to need it desperately. 

2024-25 Premier League Promoted Sides

On the note of the promoted sides, let's take a gander at what sides will and might come up to the Prem from the Championship.

If you aren't aware, the top two clubs in the Championship (the league below the Premier League) are automatically promoted while the next four clubs battle it out in a two-leg semi-final before a single-game Promotion Final.

Championship Top 6 Sides
RankSquadPromoted or Playoffs
1Leicester CityPromoted
2Ipswich TownPromoted
3Leeds UnitedPlayoffs
5West Bromwich AlbionPlayoffs
6Norwich CityPlayoffs

Leicester City and Ipswich Town have secured automatic promotion by taking the first and second spots in the Championship. Leicester is no stranger to the Prem winning it in 2016. But Ipswich hasn't been in the top league since...2002.

The Tractor Boys have won back-to-back promotions going from League 1 to the Premier League in two years. Only four other teams have done so:

  • Manchester City (2000)
  • Norwich (2011)
  • Southampton (2012)
  • Watford (1999)

Two have gone down and two have stayed up. The two sides that went right back down (City and Watford) ranked 18th and 20th for defense. So, again, relegation zone defense will net you a relegation.

Last 10 Years Of Premier League Relegations

Looking over the last 10 years of the Premier League, here are the three relegated sides by season.

Last 10 Years of Relegation
YearRelegated Team 1Relegated Team 2Relegated Team 3
2024Sheffield United*Burnley*Luton Town*
2023SouthamptonLeeds UnitedLeicester City
2022Norwich City*Watford*Burnley
2021Sheffield UnitedWest Brom Albion*Fulham*
2020Norwich City*WatfordBournemouth
2019HuddersfieldFulham*Cardiff City*
2018West Brom AlbionStoke CitySwansea
2017SunderlandMiddlesbrough*Hull City*
2016Aston VillaNorwich City*Newcastle United
2015Queens Park Rangers*Burnley*Hull City

*Clubs that were promoted the year prior.

Looking at this list, you really get a sense of the struggles that Norwich City has gone through. They've been relegated four times in the past decade. 

Fulham isn't too far behind with three relegations in the past 10 years. But unlike Norwich, the Cottagers have been able to stick in the Premier League. With Marco Silva at the helm as manager, Fulham made the top 10 for the first time since 2011-12.

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