Week 2 of the Premier League season is effectively finished – we’re just waiting for Liverpool vs Crystal Palace on Monday to close it out. Manchester City and Arsenal sit at the top of the table with a perfect six points from their opening two games.
Brentford sits just two points back of City and Arsenal and holds an impressive +4 goal differential to open their second Premier League campaign. But in this piece, we aren’t necessarily interested in who sits at the top of the table but more so who’s at the bottom. We’re looking at the teams who are favored to face the drop at the end of the 2022-23 campaign.
According to BetUS, Bournemouth holds the best odds for relegation at -185. Nottingham Forest is next at -110 while Fulham is third at EVEN money to face the drop at the end of 2022-23.
Premier League Relegation Odds
Odds as of August 15 at BetUS
Premier League Relegation Favorites
Finishing second in the Championship in 2021-22 means nothing as Bournemouth returns to the Premier League, this time under the guidance of manager Scott Parker.
Under Parker, the Cherries had a successful 2021-22 season that saw them hold the best defensive record in the Championship with only 39 goals conceded. But a promotion to the Premier League means Parker’s defensive system will be put to the sword.
A 2-0 win over Aston Villa to open the season where Bournemouth held 34 percent of possession and had a -8 shot differential was a welcomed result and showed Parker’s system could potentially hold up in the top league in England.
It was then systematically torn apart in Week 2 during a 4-0 loss to Premier League title favorite Manchester City. The Cherries were yet again dominated in possession (City held a 66% possession rate) and in the shot department with City holding a staggering +16 shot differential.
Manchester City holds the best odds to win the 2022-23 Premier League at -145.
Picking up three points to start the campaign hasn’t done enough to push away any doubt that Parker’s system and the players at his disposal just aren’t enough to avoid the drop.
Nottingham Forest (-110)
It’s no surprise to see a side that hasn’t been in the Premier League in 23 years be one of the favorites to immediately go down to the Championship. These teams don’t typically have the finances or the personnel to play at the same level as the teams consistently in the top flight. Forty-two percent of newly promoted teams are relegated in Year 1.
Nottingham Forest’s 2-0 loss to Newcastle was quickly forgotten with a 1-0 win over West Ham. While Forest was outclassed against Newcastle, the promoted club showed they could go toe to toe with a top-half squad like West Ham by holding 42 percent of possession and a -1 shot differential.
But there are still questions if Forest can sustain that. Nottingham Forest was the fourth-ranked side in the Championship last year and only attained promotion by winning the playoff over Huddersfield. And don’t forget Forest lost six of its first seven games in 2021-22 – there’s still a lot of doubt in this club.
EPL Relegation Long Shots
Seeing Everton so high on the relegation oddsboard is an odd sight for veteran Premier League fans. The Merseyside club has long been a top-half squad in the EPL. But things have gone south of late.
Frank Lampard was brought in to avoid relegation in ’21-22 and did, but so far this season, he’s dropped his first two matches and a prolonged relegation battle is looking more and more likely for Everton.
It seems unthinkable that a club of Everton’s size drops down but if results don’t start to change ,the unthinkable could very well become reality.
Southampton has avoided the drop for a few years now despite finishing in the bottom half of the table over the past five seasons. Through their opening two games of the 2022-23 season, the team has picked up a single point, a draw against Leeds.
Going back to last year, that means Ralph Hasenhuttl’s men have only picked up six points in their last 13 games. That’s just dreadful form and obviously not nearly good enough to keep them in the Premier League for the 2023-24 season.
They aren’t favorites to drop down to the Championship, but with +300 odds, they aren’t far off either.
Premier League Relegation Picks
Nottingham Forest (-110)
The three promoted sides are likely to go down at the end of the season. We’ve already discussed why Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest might drop down, but why Fulham?
Fulham sits 12th with two points after their opening two games. Two draws to open the season are welcome, specifically that 2-2 draw with Liverpool on opening day, but there are worrying signs for the newly promoted side, namely after manager Marco Silva raised concerns that the Cottagers just aren’t ready for the ’22-23 season.
The cliff was already steep, with 42 percent of promoted clubs immediately dropping back down to the Championship in the next year. Not being ready should make Fulham’s odds of facing the drop much higher than EVEN.
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