A tricky Group E opens with Poland facing Slovakia in St. Petersburg on June 14. Poland, on account of having a slight personnel and skill advantage, begin as -124 favorites against a Slovakia team that should not be underestimated, particularly after a solid lead-up to Euro 2020. 

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The odds have moved significantly since Sportsbook for Slovakia to win only, which is quite interesting. Poland began as -118 favorites, just a slight deviation from its current odds of -124. The change to the draw market, from Sportsbook to current, has been minimal. The draw started with odds of +240 and are now +237. Meanwhile, Slovakia’s odds have moved from +333 at Sportsbook to +474, changing the probability drastically. 

Poland News & Notes

Poland’s lead-up into this tournament was not the best. It started with a 1-1 draw to Russia before enduring another draw, this time to Iceland 2-2 on June 8. Even though the offense showed signs of early life, the defense will be a bit of an issue with three goals conceded in just 180 minutes. 

Poland also has a significant injured list. Defender Arkadiusz Reca and Krystian Bielik have both been ruled out along with striking options in Krzysztof Piatek and Arkadiusz Milik. Southampton defender Jan Bednarek is also still recovering from injury but his availability for Monday’s game will depend on a late fitness test. 

How will Poland set up then? Well, Poland possesses one of the best strikers in the world in Robert Lewandowski, who will be the most influential player in this match in the final third. He has incredible composure in front of goal, either from open play or even from set-pieces with his aerial strength. Leeds United midfielder Mateusz Klich will likely get the nod to start in the midfield ahead of Jakub Moder. Grzegorz Krychowiak brings plenty of experience to Poland’s prowess in the middle of the pitch, and will be a key player right through this group stage. 

Slovakia News & Notes

Just like Poland, Slovakia didn’t win either of its friendlies either. Slovakia first drew with Bulgaria 1-1 before a scoreless draw against Austria. More than offensive firepower, Slovakia needed to stay compact defensively, which is why those friendlies will please the team. 

The only negative point from that goalless draw with Austria will be the injury to forward Ivan Schranz, whose thigh injury will keep him out of this game. There is also concern around the fitness of Marek Hamsik, who was suffering from a calf injury last season. He should still start though. These will be Slovakia’s only injury concerns for this game. Robert Mak and Ondrej Duda will likely play a key part in an offensive capacity in this match. 

Even though there is a bit of a personnel and skill mismatch, Slovakia and manager Stefan Tarkovic aren’t too disturbed. "We worked hard to get here and are looking forward to getting under way. It's a big challenge for us. Poland are ahead of us in the FIFA rankings, and we are coming into the tournament as outsiders, but I think the squads are evenly matched,” Tarkovic said. 

Betting Pick 1: Draw +240

When comparing Poland’s odds in this match against another favorite with similar odds, like Belgium’s odds in its Sportsbook match against Russia, there seems to be a massive difference. For one, the gulf between Poland and Slovakia isn’t that much. Poland do have a personnel advantage, particularly with a player like Lewandowski, but there is no reason Slovakia won’t compete and come away with at least a point. 

Betting Pick 2: Under 2.5 goals (-150)

This match is primed for a 1-1 finish. That is not a likely result but it’s one that is not implausible either. Both teams have enough firepower in the final third but not enough to completely break down the opposing team. Both teams will also stay compact in the middle third and ensure that a solid start to the tournament sets the stage for the rest of the competition.