UFC 302 is set, with lightweight champ Islam Makhachev a -425 favorite over Dustin Poirier, the +330 underdog, in the five-round main event.
This is Poirier's third attempt at the lightweight title in the last five years, and he faces his longest odds yet at +330.
Makhachev vs Poirier Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dustin Poirier | +330 |
| Islam Makhachev | -425 |
Odds as of April 16
Our odds calculator suggests Islam's -425 status awards him an 80.95% implied chance of victory, with a $100 bet paying out $123.53. At +330, Poirier gets a 23.26% chance and a $100 bet cashes $430.
How To Watch UFC 302
- Date/Time: June 1, 6 p.m. ET
- Location: Newark, New Jersey
- Arena: Prudential Center
- Where to Watch: ESPN+, PPV
How To Bet Islam Makhachev
Islam silenced his doubters with a massive headkick victory over Alexander Volkanovski at UFC 294 last October, ending that rivalry in emphatic fashion. Of note, the Russian proved he's dangerous as a striker and a wrestler. Supremely confident and backed by the public, Makhachev will be tough to defeat on June 1.
If you want to reduce the chalk for this fight, peek at Islam to win inside the distance. Poirier can go a full 25 minutes, but he always matches his opponent's pressure. Islam will bring the heat in Round 1, and the dance will begin.
Makhachev will get Dustin down at some point and try to pass to an advantageous position (we saw Khabib Nurmagomedov do this at UFC 242). A guillotine or head-in-arm choke are possible.
It's equally possible Islam blasts Dustin with some early striking and earns a KO/TKO.
Long story short, if you're betting Islam, take him inside the distance.
How to bet Poirier
As a massive 'dog, Poirier SU is the best play. He'll fight like hell on June 1 and have big moments, but there's too much of a skill gap for him to win. Poirier also has the over-35 curse working against him. After Volkanovski's loss to Ilia Topuria, fighters (welterweight and under) 35 years of age and older are 2-32 in title fights.
Poirier is now 35. No amount of guillotine attempts can save him vs Islam, but if you want a longshot bet, "The Diamond" SU is your bet.
Makhachev vs Poirier Pick
I've got Islam winning this fight by submission. I think the two fighters will slug on the feet before this bout tumbles to the mat. Makhachev might not get him in Round 1, but Rounds 2 and 3 look juicy to me.
