Rumors have been swirling for months and it appears that an announcement for a bout between former roommates-turned-enemies may soon be on the horizon.
Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal are on a collision course to settle their differences and it looks like they could be the co-main event for UFC 258 in February that is scheduled to be headlined by Kamaru Usman vs Gilbert Burns.
A Covington vs Masvidal matchup has been the subject of rumors for quite some time and looking at the Covington vs Masvidal odds, it is the former interim champ, Covington, who is the betting favorite with the BMF champ, Masvidal, listed as the underdog.
Online sportsbook Sportsbook has released Covington vs Masvidal odds with Colby listed as the -140 favorite and Jorge coming back as the +110 underdog. That means you would have to wager $140 on a Covington win to profit $100, while a $100 bet on a Masvidal victory would profit you $110.
Covington vs Masvidal Odds
Odds as of December 8 at Sportsbook
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Looking at the Covington vs Masvidal odds, our sports betting calculator tells us Covington’s -140 odds have an implied win probability of 58.33 percent, while Masvidal’s odds of +110 have an implied win probability of 47.62 percent.
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Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal Odds Analysis
Seeing “Chaos” as the betting favorite should come as no surprise since he has been the chalk in 11 of his 13 UFC bouts with an average line of -230. The -140 odds, though, would be Covington’s third-longest as a favorite – he closed twice as a -125 fave.
Entering the cage as an underdog would be nothing new for “Gamebred,” having closed as such in six of his last seven bouts. He has a record of 3-3 as a dog in those fights and won the lone fight as a favorite. If you had bet on Masvidal in each of those fights as an underdog, you would have profited two units.
Covington vs Masvidal Prediction
Masvidal rose to stardom in 2019 with consecutive knockouts over Darren Till, Ben Askren and Nate Diaz, earning knockout of the year for the Askren KO. This run catapulted Gamebred to a title fight against Usman at UFC 251 in July when he lost by unanimous decision.
He is a fantastic kickboxer with a high output, landing 4.20 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 3.00. Masvidal is tough, having only been finished three times in his 49-fight career and not since 2009. His conditioning may be slightly questionable; he slowed vs Usman, albeit following a brutal weight cut on short notice, and he was arguably slowing vs Diaz.
Covington’s most recent loss is also to Kamaru Usman in December 2019, which ended a seven-fight winning streak. However, Chaos returned to the win column in September when he stopped former champion Tyron Woodley in the fifth round.
He has incredible conditioning and wears down his foes, eventually breaking them as he cruises to victory. Typically, Covington is relentless in takedown attempts, averaging 4.61 takedowns per 15 minutes and landing multiple takedowns in seven of his last nine bouts. His striking is also improving, though he lacks much power.
A big factor for me in handicapping this bout is the rumor the fight will be the co-main event under Usman vs Burns at UFC 258, indicating it would be three rounds, not the five that would favor Covington for sure. That said, if the BMF belt was on the line, then they could make it a five-round fight. In striking range, Gamebred’s kicks will frustrate Chaos and score points. However, once Covington gets inside, I think he takes Masvidal down over and over en route to a decisive victory.