UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs Tuivasa Betting Odds and Picks

For the first time since UFC 221 in February, the Octagon will be set up in Australia and for the first time since 2015 it will be set up in Adelaide with a card headlined by Junior “Cigano” dos Santos and Tai “Bam Bam” Tuivasa. The No. 7-ranked heavyweight, dos Santos, is a -160 favorite with the No. 11-ranked heavyweight, Tuivasa, coming back at +130. I have a breakdown and pick for each fight on the main card.

Dos Santos vs Tuivasa Fight Center

Odds Analysis

Junior dos Santos has been favored in seven of his last nine fights that we have odds for, being an underdog only to Stipe Miocic and Cain Velasquez, both in title fights. Meanwhile, this is just the third fight inside the Octagon for Tuivasa and he has been favored in each of his previous bouts but is taking a major step in competition. Cigano has been on a win-one, lose-one streak over his last nine fights dating back to 2012, and is coming off a five-round decision victory in July. Conversely, Bam Bam has never not had his hand raised following a bout and is coming off a three-round decision triumph over Andrei Arlovski in June. I think JDS is the favorite because of his experience and being the higher-ranked fighter, so I’m not surprised to see the odds.

Junior Dos Santos vs Tai Tuivasa

Dos Santos (-160) is looking to string together back-to-back wins for the first time since he earned knockout victories over Cain Velasquez and Frank Mir in 2011-12, both championship fights – he was on a 10-fight winning streak that ended after the Mir fight. The Brazil native has fantastic striking with above-average cardio, for the heavyweight division, and 13 of his 19 professional wins have come via T/KO.

This is the first time the former champion has fought more than once in a year since 2013 – he split those fights, knocking out Mark Hunt and getting knocked out by Cain Velasquez. Each of dos Santos’ last three defeats has come via T/KO, while his last three victories have gone to the judges’ scorecards.

Tuivasa (+130) gets his first opportunity to be in the main event and gets to do so in front of his home country fans. The Australia native grabbed the attention of UFC fans with his “shoeys” in which following his wins he drinks a beer out of someone’s shoe, and interesting choices of walk-out songs, such as “My Heart Will Go On” by Celine Dion. The 25-year-old has a perfect 10-0 record with nine of those victories coming by knockout.

People questioned his cardio prior to his last fight, but he put those comments to rest as he battled through a broken nose for three rounds with former heavyweight champion Andrei Arlovski and picked up the unanimous decision win. Bam Bam averages 5.21 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 2.92 significant strikes per minute and has defended 100 percent of takedown attempts.

This is a big step up in competition for Tuivasa, but so was his last bout with Arlovski and he looked quite comfortable in that fight and battled adversary after breaking his nose early in the scrap. However, Arlovski doesn’t have the cardio and aggressiveness that dos Santos brings into the cage and it’ll be interesting to see how Bam Bam fights off his back foot. Cigano’s chin has been tested recently and it hasn’t held up. If the fight gets dragged to later rounds, his cardio may be the difference maker.

Prediction: Tai Tuivasa (+130) via knockout

Dos Santos vs Tuivasa Fight Center

Tyson Pedro vs Mauricio Rua

Pedro (-500) is coming off his second loss over his last three bouts – the only two defeats on his professional record. The Australia native has thunder in his hands that when they land, his opponents go to sleep. In Pedro’s last fight, he had Ovince Saint Preux badly hurt early in the fight but rather than looking to put him away with strikes, he elected to go for a submission, not a good game plan against a guy who has earned three of his last four wins via submission. OSP reversed the position and earned an armbar victory.

Pedro has a solid jiu-jitsu game, though, with five of his seven professional wins coming via submission, including two in the UFC. Only one of his nine career fights has gone beyond the first round, when he went the full three rounds with Ilir Latifi at UFC 215, a fight he lost via unanimous decision.

Rua (+350) is making his 19th walk to the Octagon, spanning 11 years. The 37-year-old had found a bit of a resurgence recently, winning three of his last four fights, competing just once each year from 2015 to this year, although this is the second bout he has had in 2018. The former champion suffered a devastating first-round knockout loss to Anthony Smith in July, ending his three-fight winning streak. “Shogun” has won 20 of his 25 career victories by knockout, with one fight ending via submission and four by decision, while five of his 11 professional losses have come via T/KO.

As is the case when either of these two warriors enters the cage, this is likely going to be a standup battle. Both fighters have exceptional punching power, but Pedro does have the edge if the fight hits the mat, and he may try to get the bout there and seek the submission. If he elects to keep the fight standing, it’ll be a great war between a crafty veteran and an up-and-coming prospect.

Prediction: Tyson Pedro (-500) via submission

Pedro vs Rua Fight Center

Mark Hunt vs Justin Willis

Hunt (+105) is looking to put an end to his two-fight losing slide as he enters the Octagon for the 18th time. “The Super Samoan” has extremely heavy hands and 10 of his 13 professional wins have come via knockout, typically needing just one punch to land clean to end the night of his opponents. The 44-year-old has just one win in his last five fights, falling three times over that span and having a no contest after Brock Lesnar tested positive for performance-enhancing supplements after UFC 200. Of Hunt’s 13 losses, five have come via knockout, seven by submission and one by decision.

Willis (-135) looks to extend his seven-fight winning streak and add a future Hall of Famer to his record. The 31-year-old has fast hands and solid power that has resulted in four of his seven career wins coming via knockout. “Big Pretty” doesn’t appear to have any cardio issues either, despite being a true 265-pound heavyweight, throwing 118 strikes in his unanimous decision win over Chase Sherman in April and he averages 4.61 significant strikes per minute while absorbing just 3.69 significant strikes per minute. He does have pretty good head movement but does tend to dip his head to the left frequently when avoiding strikes and then fires back with his right hand.

This fight is a classic meeting of two big heavyweights who are going to meet in the middle and exchange hands. Big Pretty does train out of AKA with the likes of Cain Velasquez and Daniel Cormier so we may see him attempt to drag The Super Samoan to the floor to avoid his devastating strikes. The two men have different strategies in their punches as Hunt looks for the one-and-done strike, while Willis is more inclined to wear you down with many power punches.

Prediction: Justin Willis (-135) via decision

Hunt vs Willis Fight Center

Tony Martin vs Jake Matthews

Martin (-110) has a good fight IQ and an ability to adapt to what his opponent is trying to do. The 28-year-old is on a two-fight winning streak, including his most recent coming by way of a head kick knockout at UFC 229 over Ryan LaFlare. That was Martin’s first T/KO victory in his career, as the majority of his wins have come via submission (eight of 14 career wins). However, he hasn’t secured a submission win inside the UFC since January of 2016, with four of his last five scraps going to the judges’ scorecards. Although he has good grappling skills, he hasn’t earned a takedown in any of his last three fights, while getting dragged to the mat six times over that span.

Matthews (-120) is on a three-fight winning streak and is coming off a first-round submission win over Shinsho Anzai. “The Celtic Kid” has underrated power in his strikes as he prefers to bring fights to the ground and work toward a submission – seven of his 14 career wins have been by submission compared to four by knockout. The Australia native averages 2.51 takedowns per 15 minutes and has landed seven takedowns through his three-fight winning streak. He puts a pretty good pace on his opponents, averaging 3.05 significant strikes per minute while only absorbing 2.16 significant strikes per minute.

A winning streak will come to an end in this bout and I anticipate a pretty frenetic pace that’ll likely hit the mat. Matthews’ striking has a little more power than Martin does but Martin’s ability to dissect his opponents and find weaknesses may help him against a younger guy fighting in front of his home fans.

Prediction: Jake Matthews (-120) via submission

Martin vs Matthews Fight Center

Suman Mokhtarian vs Sodiq Yusuff

Mokhtarian (+425) is a wild striker who tries to close the distance with aggressive punches looking to get the fight to the floor. The 26-year-old competed in The Ultimate Fighter Season 27 and lost in the Sportsbook round to Ricky Steele, a fight in which he injured his knee. Prior to the show, Mokhtarian was a perfect 8-0 with six of those victories coming via submission. The Australia native has a solid chin as he absorbed a lot of punishment vs Steele in his decision loss, while his strikes showed damage on Steele’s face.

Yusuff (-650) is making his Octagon debut after earning a contract in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series in the summer. Everything that Yusuff throws is at 100 percent power and he mixes up solid kicks with explosive punches. “Super” has the ability to pressure his opponents and get into a wild exchange or sit back and lull his foe to sleep before exploding forward looking for a finish. The 25-year-old has a 7-1 record with four of those victories coming via knockout.

Mokhtarian will definitely have his knee tested in his return to the cage against Yusuff as Super likes to throw thunderous leg kicks. The Nigeria native’s lone loss came via first-round knockout one year ago, but since then he has rattled off two wins of his own. Meanwhile, Mokhtarian has never been finished and showed tremendous resiliency in his decision loss to Steele, tearing up his knee and still marching forward looking to get into a brawl.

Prediction: Sodiq Yusuff (-650) via knockout

Mokhtarian vs Yusuff Fight Center

Paul Craig vs Jim Crute

Craig (+210) pulled off the biggest upset of the year thus far, as he was a +535 underdog against Magomed Ankalaev in March of this year and earned a third-round triangle choke victory. The Scotland native has a dangerous submission game, with nine of his 10 career wins coming by submission, including both his victories inside the Octagon. He has two losses in his professional career, both in the UFC and both via knockout against heavy hitters in Tyson Pedro and Khalil Rountree.

Crute (-270) is making his Octagon debut after earning a contract in Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series this summer. The Brute puts together decent combinations as he has really good speed and likes to throw an overhand right followed by a solid leg kick. The 22-year-old has a solid chin and it was tested quite heavily in DWTNCS and he still marched forward with his hands by his side swinging his punches from the hip. The Australia native has a perfect 8-0 record with three wins by knockout, two by submission and three others by decision.

The odds are a little surprising for this bout as Craig has a very top-level jiu-jitsu game against a guy who is making his Octagon debut. That being said, Crute has exceptional striking and we have seen Craig get knocked out in two of his last three fights. If the fight hits the floor, the advantage could go to Craig, but every fight starts standing and the momentum will be in Crute’s favor.

Prediction: Jim Crute (-270) via knockout

Craig vs Crute Fight Center

Here’s a look at the entire odds for UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs Tuivasa card: