Ronda Rousey vs Gina Carano Odds & Picks

Ronda Rousey is a -400 favorite against Gina Carano (+330) in a featherweight main event on May 16 at Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California, streaming live on Netflix via Most Valuable Promotions.

The Rousey vs Carano odds reflect both fighters' histories and the circumstances surrounding this comeback bout. Rousey (12-2) was the most dominant women's MMA fighter of her era, finishing 11 of her first 12 opponents, mostly by armbar. Carano (7-1) was the sport's first mainstream star but hasn't competed since 2009, giving her a 17-year absence compared to Rousey's nearly decade-long layoff. The market is backing Rousey's superior resume despite both fighters being deeply ring-rusty.

Rousey vs Carano Betting Odds

Rousey vs Carano Odds
Fighter	Odds
Ronda Rousey	-400
Gina Carano	+330

Rousey vs Carano Prediction

Even accounting for nearly a decade away from competition, Rousey's technical superiority over Carano is hard to overlook. At her peak, Rousey's judo-based clinch work and elite armbar game were virtually impossible to defend, and her striking, while limited, was serviceable enough to set up grappling exchanges. Carano was always more of a striker, but her 7-1 record came against significantly lower-level competition than the women Rousey routinely dismantled in the UFC.

The bigger question here is finish potential. Rousey's last two losses came via KO, and Carano does carry genuine power. That said, Carano's 17-year absence dwarfs even Rousey's layoff, and there's no evidence her hands will be sharp enough to capitalize if Rousey commits to a grappling-heavy game plan. At 145 lbs, Rousey should have the size to control the clinch and dictate pace over five rounds. It's also worth noting that this is the first time Rousey has competed at featherweight since her fourth professional fight, but the added weight should actually benefit her physically against a naturally bigger opponent in Carano.

Conditioning and camp quality will matter more here than historical highlights. Both fighters are well past their primes, but Rousey's judo background gives her a more transferable base than Carano's boxing-heavy style — grappling instincts tend to hold up better after long layoffs than refined striking timing. The decision line is the smart play. Rousey is 39 with documented concussion history and question marks on her chin, making a flashy finish far from guaranteed. But her technical wrestling and judo should be enough to win rounds without taking unnecessary risks. Back Rousey by decision as the value angle in what should be a controlled, methodical performance from the former champion.