UFC Fight Night 170: Lee vs Oliveira Odds and Picks

The first UFC stop in Brazil in 2020 is set for March 14 at Ginasio Nilson Nelson in the capital city of Brasilia. Headlining the card is a great fight in the lightweight division as Kevin “The Motown Phenom” Lee looks for his second straight win since returning to this weight class as he takes on Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira, who lays his six-fight winning streak on the line. Despite his recent winning ways, Oliveira is a +125 underdog in this bout with Lee coming back at -155.

Kevin Lee vs Charles Oliveira

Perhaps one of the better streaks in the UFC will be on the line as Oliveira (+125) has won six straight fights, each of them finishes (four by submission and two by knockout). Yet he’s the underdog against Lee (-155), who returned to lightweight after a one-fight stint in welterweight and did so with a first-round knockout over previously undefeated Gregor Gillespie in November.

The Motown Phenom is best known for his great wrestling pedigree and averages 3.23 takedowns per 15 minutes, including 16 over his last five bouts. Under head coach Firas Zahabi, his striking continues to evolve, working behind a jab to land his heavier right hand. He looks to counter most of the time and is often outmatched on speed so he’s better when he’s the aggressor. Do Bronx, on the other hand, is a more wild striker, pressuring his opponents with kicks, flying attacks and long punches. Those movements leave him vulnerable to getting taken down, which he doesn’t mind as 18 of his 28 pro wins have been by submission.

Prediction: Kevin Lee (-155) via decision

Odds as of March 14 at Sportsbook

Demian Maia vs Gilbert Burns

Following a three-fight losing skid in 2017 into 2018 to Tyron Woodley, Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman, Demian Maia (+150) has rebounded with three straight wins heading into this fight. Riding a four-fight winning streak of his own is Gilbert “Durinho” Burns (-185), who most recently earned decision wins over Alexey Kunchenko and Gunnar Nelson last year.

Although he’s 42, Maia is still no joke and is arguably the best grappler in the UFC. The Brazil native is as dangerous as they come on the floor, with 14 of his 28 pro wins coming by submission, nine of them via rear-naked chokes. His striking is fairly simple, throwing long, overhand punches to try to close the distance and get into his world of grappling. Burns is a good grappler in his own right with eight of his 17 pro wins coming by submission but he only has one in that manner since 2016. He is more explosive in his striking but is extremely hesitant to throw, averaging just 3.09 significant strikes per minute and landing 43 percent of his attempts.

Prediction: Demian Maia (+150) via decision

Odds as of March 14 at Sportsbook

Amanda Ribas vs Randa Markos

Hoping to remain undefeated in the UFC is Amanda Ribas (-400), who made her Octagon debut last June and scored wins over Emily Whitmire and Mackenzie Dern in 2019. Meanwhile, Randa “Quiet Storm” Markos (+300) is looking to win back-to-back fights for the first time since she won three in a row to open her pro career in 2012 into 2013. The Canadian most recently went 2-1 in 2019 with wins over Ashley Yoder and Angela Hill.

Markos is a suffocating fighter, not giving her opponents a lot of room to work as she closes the distance looking to get into a grappling exchange. Quiet Storm also does a good job of throwing combinations on the feet when she decides to engage, but she often drops her hands when throwing strikes, which leaves her vulnerable to counters. Ribas is a much more refined striker with terrific footwork and head movement that allows her to avoid much damage and she counters extremely well. She likes to bully her opponents and constantly throws jabs to get a reaction out of her counterpart so she can throw a power punch or seek a takedown.

Prediction: Amanda Ribas (-400) via decision

Odds as of March 14 at Sportsbook

Renato Moicano vs Damir Hadzovic

Aiming to put a stop to his career-long two-fight losing slide is Renato Moicano (-400), who eyes his first victory since August 2018 and has had back-to-back knockout losses to Jose Aldo and the Korean Zombie. Coming off a loss as well is Damir “The Bosnian Bomber” Hadzovic (+300), who had his two-fight winning streak snapped with a decision loss to Christos Giagos last June.

Moicano is a long patient fighter who keeps his opponents at long range with his powerful kicks. With this style of striking, he is able to avoid taking much damage because he keeps away from the power of his opponents. However, he has been knocked out in his last two bouts because he will sometimes back straight up with his chin in the air. Hadzovic is also relatively tall for the featherweight division and is usually the aggressor in the cage, though he tends to throw long lunging hooks that aren’t well set up and don’t have a lot of pop behind them. When he sits down on his punches, he does damage, but he can overextend, Sportsbook him up to be countered.

Prediction: Renato Moicano (-400) via decision

Odds as of March 14 at Sportsbook

Johnny Walker vs Nikita Krylov

Johnny Walker (-145) had his nine-fight winning streak snapped his last time out when he suffered a first-round knockout loss to Corey Anderson, the Brazilian’s first loss in the UFC. Also looking to get back in the win column after suffering a loss his last time out is Nikita Krylov (+115), who fell via split decision to Glover Teixeira last September.

Walker is a wild man in the Octagon, with a lot of herky-jerky movements, constantly dipping and feinting looking for opportunities to land a highlight-reel strike. Although many of his movements are distracting, he doesn’t have a ton of head movement and if you can beat him to the punch, he’s vulnerable just as Anderson caught him last November. Krylov is also a forward-pressing fighter, throwing plenty of punches and strikes to keep his opponents off balance before he shoots for a takedown – he has secured at least one takedown in each of his last four fights. He’s most dangerous on the floor, with 15 of his 26 pro victories coming by submission.

Prediction: Nikita Krylov (+115) via submission

Odds as of March 14 at Sportsbook

Bruno Silva vs David Dvorak

Kicking off the main card is David “Killa Khroust” Dvorak (-115) making his UFC debut as he takes on Brazil native Bruno “Bulldog” Silva (-115). Dvorak brings with him a 13-fight winning streak, with six victories by submission and seven by knockout. Meanwhile, Silva made his UFC debut last October, losing by third-round submission to Khalid Taha.

Bulldog has fast kicks that he times really well, but when he’s being pressured, he often leaves his hands in no man’s land, Sportsbook him up to getting punched over the top. As his nickname suggests, he’s a bulldog, electing to exchange hands with his counterparts, but he sometimes does so from afar, often swinging and missing as a result. Dvorak is a very active fighter, always bouncing around on the outside and throwing long hooks looking for the knockout punch from long range. However, when he starts throwing leg kicks, he does damage early and often and when his opponents press, he’s quick to let his heavy hands go.

Prediction: David Dvorak (-115) via decision

Odds as of March 14 at Sportsbook

Here’s a look at the rest of the odds for UFC Fight Night 170: Lee vs Oliveira:

Odds as of March 14 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 14 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 14 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 14 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 14 at Sportsbook

Odds as of March 14 at Sportsbook