UFC Fight Night Calgary: Betting Odds and Picks

For the first time in just over six years, the UFC returns to the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, Canada. UFC president Dana White will be celebrating his birthday with a banger of a card headlined by Eddie Alvarez vs Dustin Poirier 2. Alvarez opens as the +145 underdog in this rematch with Poirier coming back at -175. From top to bottom there are exciting fights on this Fight Night and I’m here to give you a breakdown and pick for every fight on the main card.

Eddie Alvarez vs Dustin Poirier 2

Oddsmakers haven't shown any love towards the former champ as this is the seventh straight fight that Alvarez has opened as the underdog which has provided good value for bettors. 'The Underground King' earned victories in four of those previous six fights, including being the heavy dog against Anthony Pettis (+295) and Rafael Dos Anjos (+240). Conversely, Poirier has been the favorite in eight of his last nine fights, including closing as the -130 fave in the first clash with Alvarez. That first fight could have been ended with Alvarez's hand being raised along with underdog bettors bank accounts.

Poirier (-175) brings the fight to his opponent with a tremendous output of 5.57 strikes landed per minute. 'The Diamond' has outstruck his foes by double-digits in seven of his last eight fights, winning four of those fights by way of T/KO and one scrap ending in a no contest. That one battle that finished in a no contest was the first bout with Alvarez at UFC 211. The 29-year-old will take the center of the Octagon and swing for the fences, hunting for the knockout from the moment the ref claps them in until the horn goes at the end of the fight.

Alvarez (+145) is very similar to his counterpart, pushing the pace landing 4.44 strikes per minute. 'The Underground King’s' toughness has been on display time and time again as it appears that nearly every one of his fights is an epic war – see his fight with Justin Gaethje. However, Alvarez does have an underrated wrestling game, averaging 3.14 takedowns per 15 minutes, that he can rely on if he is getting too roughed up in his standup.

The first scrap between these two was just as advertised as both fighters showed up to brawl, with each rocking the other but not securing the finish. Their first fight ended in a no contest following Alvarez's accidental knee to Poirier while he was still on the ground. Poirier will be looking to finish Alvarez on the feet but The Underground King has been stopped just twice in his illustrious career. Don’t blink when these two lightweights enter the Octagon for the main event as this fight will surely bring the fireworks.

Prediction: Dustin Poirier (-175) via knockout

Jose Aldo vs Jeremy Stephens

Aldo (-105) was an unstoppable machine within the featherweight division for over 10 years until 2015 when the reign was ended in 13 seconds. 'Junior' was stopped by the Notorious Conor McGregor in the much-hyped fight at UFC 194. Aldo was stopped two more times by current champion, Max Holloway, and is now just 1-3 since the UFC came to an agreement with USADA – just saying. The former champ has vicious kicks that leave opponents in pain, especially in later rounds when he still looks fresh and continues a relentless pressure. Aldo will keep the fight standing as he has a great takedown defense of 92 percent. The one weakness we have seen out of the 31-year-old is his chin, as all three of his losses in the UFC have come by T/KO, granted those losses were to McGregor and Holloway.

Stephens (-125) is an 11-year veteran of the UFC dating back to his debut at UFC 71 in 2007 against Din Thomas. This will be his 29th walk to the Octagon and he could be one fight away at getting his first title shot. 'Lil’ Heathen' has struggled to find consistency, putting together a few win streaks followed by a few losing streaks, but he brings heart to every bout he’s in not letting previous performances impact his next fight. The journeyman has collected three straight fight bonuses in his current three-fight winning streak, including back-to-back second-round finishes of Dooho Choi and Josh Emmett earlier this year. Stephens has been a victim of the judges as 10 of his 13 UFC losses have been by decisions and he hasn’t been finished in 13 fights.

This is a very intriguing fight and the odds reflect this. Since USADA has been in the picture Aldo doesn’t look like the same fighter, however, is that just a consequence of going toe-to-toe with the likes of Max Holloway and Conor McGregor? Meanwhile, Stephens has put runs together before but always stumbles when he gets that opportunity for a big jump in the ranking, having never won four fights in a row. If Stephens can get in Aldo’s face and handle his shots this fight could be a brawl.

Prediction: Jeremy Stephens (-125) via decision

Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Tecia Torres

Jedrzejczyk (-325) has an aggressive Muay Thai style of fighting that leaves her foes bruised, bloodied and battered. Joanna averages 6.63 strikes per minute with endless cardio. The 30-year-old was the most feared woman in the strawweight division since she joined the UFC in 2014, rhyming off eight straight wins, including five title defenses. However, for the first time in her career she is coming off back-to-back losses, both to current champion, Rose Namajunas. Will she be able to get back to the in your face pressure fighter she once was or will these losses hamper the former champ?

Torres (+250) is always an aggressive fighter with an average output of 4.74 strikes per minute but lacks true knockout power. 'The Tiny Tornado' throws a flurry of punches with seemingly endless cardio that has led to six unanimous decisions in her Octagon career. Her only two losses came against the aforementioned 'Thug' Rose Namajunas and most recently, falling to perennial contender Jessica Andrade, both by decision. Torres’ biggest weakness is her takedown defense which was on full display vs Andrade when she was dragged to the mat 10 times through their three-round bout.

Don’t expect these two fighters to engage in a grappling match, this will be standup battle and a good test on whether Joanna can get back to championship form. Jedrzejczyk will back Torres down so it’ll be interesting to see whether 'The Tiny Tornado' can bite down on her mouthpiece and fire back and score a knockout much like Namajunas did at UFC 217

Prediction: Jedrzejczyk (-325) via knockout

Alexander Hernandez vs Olivier Aubin-Mercier

Aubin-Mercier (-125) returns to the Octagon riding a four-fight winning streak. The former TUF finalist is known for his above average wrestling game in which he lands 3.11 takedowns per 15 minutes and has secured two or more takedowns in seven of his nine fights in the UFC. 'The Canadian Gangster' earned a Performance of the Night award in his last fight, however, not because of his elite grappling but rather a first-round knockout of Evan Dunham with knees to the body at UFC 223. Aubin-Mercier has earned four of his seven Octagon wins by way of submission.

Hernandez (-105) has lightning quick, true knockout power. This was on perfect display as he finished Beneil Dariush with a perfectly timed left hand in his debut at UFC 222 that earned him a Performance of the Night bonus. Hernandez blitzed Dariush with confidence and aggression from the moment the ref clapped them in. 'The Great' is a well-rounded fighter with four fights ending in a knockout, two by submission and three by decision and has eyes on extending his seven-fight winning streak.

These are two great prospects within the lightweight division and an impressive victory this weekend will surely propel either of them higher in the rankings with hopes of a title shot in the not too distant future. If Hernandez comes out with an aggressive style against Aubin-Mercier he very easily could run into a takedown which is where 'The Canadian Gangster' feels most comfortable. However, with Hernadez’s true knockout power Aubin-Mercier will have to try and distance himself and pick his shots or this could be another quick night for Alexander 'The Great'.

Prediction: Olivier Aubin-Mercier (-125) via decision