Brandon "The Assassin Baby" Moreno enters as a -225 favorite at bet365 against Lone'er Kavanagh in the flyweight main event at UFC Mexico City on February 28. The event takes place at Arena CDMX in Mexico City.
Moreno, the first Mexican champion in UFC history, looks to steady himself in the flyweight rankings after a TKO loss to Tatsuro Taira, while Kavanagh steps in as a last-minute replacement on two weeks' notice coming off his own knockout setback against Charles Johnson.
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Moreno vs Kavanagh Betting Odds
| Fighter | Odds |
|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | -225 |
| Lone'er Kavanagh | +185 |
Odds as of February 23 at bet365
Moreno vs Kavanagh Prediction
Everything about this matchup points toward a Moreno control performance. He is the more complete fighter, fighting in front of a rabid home crowd, and facing a short-notice opponent who has already shown he can be stopped. Kavanagh accepted this fight on two weeks' notice after Asu Almabayev pulled out with a hand injury. That context matters. Preparing for a former two-time champion on a compressed timeline, without full camp, is a significant ask for a fighter who is still developing at the UFC level.
Moreno brings a career's worth of elite-level flyweight experience to this one. He has shared the Octagon with Deiveson Figueiredo four times, beaten Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg in back-to-back fights, and holds grappling credentials that Kavanagh has never been tested against at this caliber. The TKO loss to Taira was jarring, but it came against one of the division's most technically precise strikers. Kavanagh is not that. His knockout loss to Charles Johnson revealed real vulnerability to power at flyweight, and Moreno's combination of wrestling, jiu-jitsu, and veteran savvy gives him multiple paths to victory that Kavanagh simply cannot neutralize on short notice.
Moreno's submission game is the X-factor here. He has finished fights by rear-naked choke and arm-triangle throughout his career, and Kavanagh, despite solid instincts, has not been stress-tested on the ground against anyone near Moreno's level. Once Moreno establishes his rhythm, whether through takedowns or back-takes off scrambles, this fight could end before the championship rounds.
The smart play is Moreno by submission or decision. He is the cleaner fighter in every department, carries crowd momentum into every exchange, and has too many finishing tools for a short-notice prospect to neutralize over 25 minutes.
