Dillon Danis is a heavy underdog vs Logan Paul

Paul vs Danis Betting Preview: If El Jefe Shows Up, He's Dead

Add one more shiny matchup to the world of celebrity boxing

Logan Paul, brother of fellow YouTuber-turned-boxer Jake Paul, will enter the squared circle to take on Dillon Danis in a boxing match on October 14 in Manchester England.

Paul, 28, hasn't fought since going the distance with Floyd Mayweather in an exhibition boxing match in 2021. Danis, best known as the agitator who prompted Khabib Nurmagomedov to leap into the crowd at UFC 229, is a former Bellator fighter with no boxing experience.

Given the mismatch, Paul opens as a massive -1000 favorite over Danis.

Logan Paul vs Dillon Danis Odds

Logan Paul-1000
Dillon Danis+600

Odds as of August 9

According to our sports betting calculator, Paul's -1000 odds give him a 90.91% chance of winning, and a $100 bet on him nets $110. Danis' +600 status gives him an implied 14.29% chance, with $100 paying out $700. 

Paul vs Danis Preview: Who Will Win?

Let's assess why Paul is the heavy favorite and establish a strategy for turning these lopsided odds into a respectable betting profit. 

How to Bet Logan Paul

The Paul brothers are big dudes, and in a sloppy boxing match, Logan's size will be his biggest asset. Paul owns a 1.5-inch reach advantage over the shorter Danis, which will allow the YouTuber a chance to crack from the outside.

In tight, though, Paul is a disaster. His long, strong arms will help when he blasts uppercuts, but his technique vs Mayweather was atrocious. More often than not, Paul saw red and swung his arms wildly, attacking a shelled-up Mayweather with awkward, swiping punches

Again, Paul is a larger man than Danis, and he's fought more recently and lives what I would assume is a far healthier lifestyle. If I'm betting Paul, I'd do it by KO/TKO. That ought to reduce the chalk, but we may need to get even more specific for better value. More on that later.

How To Bet Dillon Danis

If — a big if — Danis actually makes weight and shows up to this fight, he's sunk. The 29-year-old was once a professional fighter, and his two submissions in Bellator suggest he has quality grappling skills. But when the ground game isn't an option, things can get ugly — ask Nate Diaz how he felt with heavy gloves and a slugger in front of him. 

If you're betting Danis, drug test yourself immediately. If you're still insistent on backing "El Jefe," then I'd say his best avenue to victory is keeping things in tight. Maybe he bests Paul with his knowledge of the clinch, or he parries the bigger man's shots and feeds him with short punches.

Danis hasn't competed in combat sports since 2019, but if you want a prayer of a wager, take him at +600.

Logan Paul vs Dillon Danis Pick

It's wasteful to bet Paul at -1000. In the interim, I'll recommend betting him to win by KO/TKO (TBD). Once we get a better read on those odds, then I'll sharpen the pick for more value.

Pick: Paul by KO/TKO (TBD)