Odds to Win the 2019 Kentucky Derby: Signal Sent at Churchill Downs

The Ken McPeek-trained Signalman sent out a strong signal on Saturday that he is indeed a Kentucky Derby (G1) contender by winning the $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs.

The colt was a game neck winner over +1400 long shot Plus Que Parfait and returned his backers $9.20 for a $2 win wager.

His price in early Kentucky Derby future wagering at Bovada dropped from +3300 to +2500 after his victory. The colt is now tied for second in the Road to the Kentucky Derby points standings with 18.

After breaking his maiden in his second career start at Saratoga, he ran a good second in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland at +1000 and then was dismissed at +6700 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) where he checked in third, beaten 3¼ lengths by the winner Game Winner.

Bet on the 2019 Kentucky Derby here!

Game Winner remains derby favorite at +850

Game Winner, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, remains the betting favorite for the Run for the Roses at Bovada, drifting up from +800 three weeks ago to his current price of +850.

The colt is perfect in four starts, capping off his two-year-old campaign by winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) on Nov. 2 at Churchill Downs, wrapping up championship honors in his division.

Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby five times and has swept the Triple Crown twice in the last four years, with American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify last year.

Coliseum was taking betting action at Bovada while he was still unraced, at +2000 a week before he made his debut on Nov. 17 for Baffert.

He ran to his reputation, destroying the field by 6¾ lengths, and now has dropped to the co-second choice in early Derby betting at Bovada +1800.

Coliseum, Instagrand co-second choices in wagering

Baffert also has two of the co-third choices in early Kentucky Derby wagering. Improbable is at +2000, and he is perfect in his two career starts. The colt won the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 2 in his last start.

Mucho Gusto is at +2000 for Baffert and this colt is undefeated in two starts. He won the Bob Hope (G3) at Del Mar on Nov. 17 in his last outing.

The Jerry Hollendorfer-trained Instagrand is the current co-second choice at +1800. The colt won both his starts by 10 lengths, winning the Best Pal (G2) at Del Mar on Aug. 11. His connections elected to skip the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to freshen the colt up for his three-year-old campaign.

Two other Baffert runners taking action are Roadster at +2500, the runner-up of the Del Mar Futurity (G1), and Magic On Tap, an impressive maiden winner who is +3300.

The next Road to the Kentucky Derby points race comes up this Saturday. The $250,000 Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct will offer up 10-4-2-1 points to the top four finishers toward entry into the Kentucky Derby. 

Odds as of November 26 at Bovada

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Road to the Kentucky Derby for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

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It should be no surprise that Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has the early betting favorite for the 2019 Kentucky Derby.

Game Winner kept his perfect record intact last Saturday, winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Churchill Downs, and is the +800 betting favorite in 2019 Kentucky Derby wagering at Bovada.

Baffert has won the Run for the Roses five times and his last two winners — Justify this year and American Pharoah in 2015 — went on to become Triple Crown winners.

Game Winner is well on his way to being the betting favorite on the first Saturday of May. The buzz started after a 5¾ length victory in his debut at Del Mar on Aug. 18, then he won the Del Mar Futurity (G1) going seven furlongs in his stakes debut.

He followed up that effort with a win in the American Pharoah, which was his first start around two turns. Now his Juvenile win gives him a leg up on his competition with a win under the Twin Spires at Churchill Downs.

Baffert has Improbable challenger in derby

Baffert has another major player in Improbable, who is the co-third choice in early Kentucky Derby betting at Bovada at +2000.

The colt ran on the undercard on Breeders’ Cup Friday, winning the Street Sense Stakes by 7¼ lengths. The colt earned a 93 Beyer Speed Figure, the same number his stablemate earned in his Juvenile victory.

The second choice in early Derby wagering at Bovada is on the shelf until next year. The Jerry Hollendorfer-trained Instagrand is currently listed at +1600.

The colt broke his maiden at Los Alamitos in June by 10 lengths, then won the Best Pal Stakes (G2) at Del Mar in August by 10¼ lengths. He was the early betting favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but his owner decided to put him on the sidelines until early next year.

Knicks Go won Breeders’ Futurity at 70-1 odds

Knicks Go is among four horses grouped at +2000 in early Derby wagering at Bovada and may finally start earning some respect.

Trained by Ben Colebrook, the colt pulled off a huge upset in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland at +7000.

Despite that win, he was dismissed at +4000 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he prompted the early pace and held on to the runner-up spot.

In addition to Knicks Go and Improbable, other contenders listed at +2000 are Coliseum, a son of Tapit who is in the Baffert barn and has not made his debut yet, and Rowayton, who was second in the Del Mar Futurity and third in the American Pharoah.

The next Road to the Kentucky Derby points race is the $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs on Nov. 23.

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Road to the Kentucky Derby for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

Odds as of November 8 at Bovada

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It is Derby Day and it is time to finalize your final picks and come up with a betting strategy and now we have another factor to consider — Mother Nature.

Earlier this week there was a 90 percent chance of rain for Kentucky Oaks Day on Friday, and we saw no rain, zip, nada. On Wednesday the forecast for Louisville for Saturday was partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain.

Once again, the National Weather Service may be wrong. Now there is a 60 percent chance of showers throughout much of the day, decreasing as post time will approach at 6:50 ET.

If the rains do come, who does it benefit?

Justify, the current favorite at Bovada at odds of +325, won his second career start over a muddy surface and has a decent enough off-track pedigree. My Boy Jack (+1200) won the Southwest (G3) over a muddy track at Oaklawn Park. Firenze Fire (+6600) won the Jerome on a muddy track at Aqueduct.

There are several top contenders that have not raced on an off track but are bred to do so. Among those are Audible (+700), Good Magic (+1000), Hofburg (+1800) and Bolt d’Oro (+700).

The Churchill Downs racing strip dries out quickly, so if the rains do stop by midafternoon, there is still a good chance we see a fast track by post time for the Run for the Roses.

Oaks-Derby Double

Monomoy Girl won Friday’s Kentucky Oaks (G1) and in the Oaks-Derby Double Justify is the favorite and will return $16.60. The second-lowest payoff is Mendelssohn at $21.00, Audible third at $29.50.

My Boy Jack took some action considering his +3000 morning line. The double payoff is $98.50, and he has been bet down at Bovada to +1200.

By comparison, Hofburg, who is +2000 on the morning line and has been a buzz horse this week, will pay $85.30 in the Oaks-Derby Double and is +1800 at Bovada.

Derby Resources

Here are a few must-read articles before wagering on this year’s Derby:

2018 Kentucky Derby Betting Trends and Facts

2018 Kentucky Derby Favorites and Sleepers

Kentucky Derby Horse by Horse Preview for the Sports Bettor

2018 Kentucky Derby Post Positions  

Derby Undercard

The Derby is race 12 on a blockbuster 14-race card that kicks off at 10:30 a.m. ET and there are two races following the Derby, the post for race 14 at 8:20 p.m. ET.

Here are a few contenders to look for:

Race 6 The Humana Distaff: Five of these are exiting a blanket finish in the Madison (G1) but we will go in a different direction with left coast shipper Skye Diamonds. The mare broke outward coming out of the gate, tracked the early pace and finished evenly in a third-place finish in the Santa Monica (G2). The runner-up Marley’s Freedom came back to beat Alw-2 optional claimers in her next outing. Our top pick won five of seven last year earning consistent numbers good enough to win in this spot. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and gets a jock upgrade here to Smith.

Race 8 The Churchill Downs: Imperial Hint was a much the best winner last out at Tampa Bay Downs beating up on Florida breds going six furlongs off a 4 1/2-month break. The Carvajal trainee won his first four starts of ’17 for fun and then headed for home with the lead in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) but got run down by Roy H who came back to win the Palos Verdes (G2) in his first start this year. Our top pick owns solid early and mid pace numbers and he has won three of his four starts at seven furlongs. His last speed fig comes up light compared to his numbers last year, but he was not extended last out and is going to move forward off his last start.

Race 11 The Old Forester Turf Classic: Kurilov is going to be the higher price of the Chad Brown duo in this race. The five-year-old is 0-for-3 since landing in the U.S. but he is getting better with each outing and has lost photos in his last pair. Last out in the Gulfstream Park Turf (G1) he stalked the early pace and finished gamely to miss by just a neck as the tough Heart to Heart managed to take the field gate to wire. The winner came back to win the Makers 46 Mile (G1) at Keeneland in his next outing. The third in the GP Turf was Hi Happy, who came back to Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 31 with a 105 Beyer. He returns here off a 2 1/2-month break for Brown who is 30 percent winners with runners coming back off a 45-180-day break. Looks like decent value if he goes off near his +600 morning line.

Odds as of May 5 at Bovada

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Road to the Kentucky Derby for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.