Odds to Win the Kentucky Derby: Last-Minute Look at Betting on Today’s Race

It is Derby Day and it is time to finalize your final picks and come up with a betting strategy and now we have another factor to consider — Mother Nature.

Earlier this week there was a 90 percent chance of rain for Kentucky Oaks Day on Friday, and we saw no rain, zip, nada. On Wednesday the forecast for Louisville for Saturday was partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain.

Once again, the National Weather Service may be wrong. Now there is a 60 percent chance of showers throughout much of the day, decreasing as post time will approach at 6:50 ET.

Bet on the 2018 Kentucky Derby here!

If the rains do come, who does it benefit?

Justify, the current favorite at Bovada at odds of +325, won his second career start over a muddy surface and has a decent enough off-track pedigree. My Boy Jack (+1200) won the Southwest (G3) over a muddy track at Oaklawn Park. Firenze Fire (+6600) won the Jerome on a muddy track at Aqueduct.

There are several top contenders that have not raced on an off track but are bred to do so. Among those are Audible (+700), Good Magic (+1000), Hofburg (+1800) and Bolt d’Oro (+700).

The Churchill Downs racing strip dries out quickly, so if the rains do stop by midafternoon, there is still a good chance we see a fast track by post time for the Run for the Roses.

Oaks-Derby Double

Monomoy Girl won Friday’s Kentucky Oaks (G1) and in the Oaks-Derby Double Justify is the favorite and will return $16.60. The second-lowest payoff is Mendelssohn at $21.00, Audible third at $29.50.

My Boy Jack took some action considering his +3000 morning line. The double payoff is $98.50, and he has been bet down at Bovada to +1200.

By comparison, Hofburg, who is +2000 on the morning line and has been a buzz horse this week, will pay $85.30 in the Oaks-Derby Double and is +1800 at Bovada.

Derby Resources

Here are a few must-read articles before wagering on this year’s Derby:

2018 Kentucky Derby Betting Trends and Facts

2018 Kentucky Derby Favorites and Sleepers

Kentucky Derby Horse by Horse Preview for the Sports Bettor

2018 Kentucky Derby Post Positions  

Derby Undercard

The Derby is race 12 on a blockbuster 14-race card that kicks off at 10:30 a.m. ET and there are two races following the Derby, the post for race 14 at 8:20 p.m. ET.

Here are a few contenders to look for:

Race 6 The Humana Distaff: Five of these are exiting a blanket finish in the Madison (G1) but we will go in a different direction with left coast shipper Skye Diamonds. The mare broke outward coming out of the gate, tracked the early pace and finished evenly in a third-place finish in the Santa Monica (G2). The runner-up Marley’s Freedom came back to beat Alw-2 optional claimers in her next outing. Our top pick won five of seven last year earning consistent numbers good enough to win in this spot. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and gets a jock upgrade here to Smith.

Race 8 The Churchill Downs: Imperial Hint was a much the best winner last out at Tampa Bay Downs beating up on Florida breds going six furlongs off a 4 1/2-month break. The Carvajal trainee won his first four starts of ’17 for fun and then headed for home with the lead in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) but got run down by Roy H who came back to win the Palos Verdes (G2) in his first start this year. Our top pick owns solid early and mid pace numbers and he has won three of his four starts at seven furlongs. His last speed fig comes up light compared to his numbers last year, but he was not extended last out and is going to move forward off his last start.

Race 11 The Old Forester Turf Classic: Kurilov is going to be the higher price of the Chad Brown duo in this race. The five-year-old is 0-for-3 since landing in the U.S. but he is getting better with each outing and has lost photos in his last pair. Last out in the Gulfstream Park Turf (G1) he stalked the early pace and finished gamely to miss by just a neck as the tough Heart to Heart managed to take the field gate to wire. The winner came back to win the Makers 46 Mile (G1) at Keeneland in his next outing. The third in the GP Turf was Hi Happy, who came back to Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 31 with a 105 Beyer. He returns here off a 2 1/2-month break for Brown who is 30 percent winners with runners coming back off a 45-180-day break. Looks like decent value if he goes off near his +600 morning line.

Odds as of May 5 at Bovada

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Road to the Kentucky Derby for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

Archived Articles

The Bob Baffert-trained Justify drew a good post for Saturday’s $2-million Kentucky Derby (G1) as the undefeated colt will be breaking from the seven post as the likely betting favorite.

The colt was installed as the +300 morning line favorite and his current odds at Bovada are a bit better at +350.

The colt took the field gate to wire to win the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and has earned 100+ Beyer Speed Figures in each of his three career starts. Baffert is seeking his fifth win in the Run for the Roses and will give a leg up to Hall of Fame rider Mike Smith, who is just 1-for-23 in the Derby, his victory coming on long shot Giacomo in 2005.
 

Bet on the 2018 Kentucky Derby here!

Mendelssohn second in odds at +400

Mendelssohn remains the second choice in early Kentucky Derby wagering at Bovada at +400. The Aiden O’Brien trainee drew post 14 and will have Ryan Moore in the irons. The colt is listed at +500 on the official morning line.

O’Brien is 0-for-5 in the Derby and Moore will be riding in the race for just the second time in his career.

The 144th running of the Kentucky Derby has drawn one of the deepest fields we have seen in recent years.

Good Magic, Bolt d’Oro were early faves

Among the other contenders are Good Magic and Bolt d’Oro, who have both spent some time as the early betting favorite for the race.

Good Magic was the betting favorite after his victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last fall at Del Mar. After a disappointing third in the Fountain of Youth (G2) in his three-year-old debut, he bounced back with a sharp win in the Blue Grass (G2) at Keeneland in his final prep.

The Chad Brown trainee is +1200 on the morning line and has been bet down to +900 in early Derby wagering at Bovada. He drew post six and will have Jose Ortiz in the saddle.

Bolt d’Oro was the early betting favorite for the Derby back in January at +700 and has drifted up a couple of points to his current price of +900. He has two starts this year, a head loss in the San Felipe (G2) where he was placed first after a disqualification of the winner, and a second to Justify in the Santa Anita Derby.

Trained by Mick Ruis, the colt drew post 11 and has three-time Derby-winning jockey Victor Espinoza aboard for the ride.

Pletcher has four starters

Trainer Todd Pletcher will send out four runners and three did not have a good morning at the post position draw on Tuesday. Magnum Moon (+700) drew post 16, Vino Rosso (+1400) drew 18 and Noble Indy (+2800) drew post 19.

Pletcher’s fourth starter is Audible (+550), who drew the five post. The colt won the Florida Derby (G1) in his last outing. The last two Kentucky Derby winners, Nyquist and Always Dreaming, prepped in the Florida Derby.

Article written on May 2, odds as of May 4 at Bovada

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Road to the Kentucky Derby for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

Archived Articles

Horseplayers are not too worried about backing a Kentucky Derby favorite that is attempting to end a streak that started in 1882, with Justify now a solid +325 betting favorite for the Run for the Roses.

We will be hearing a lot about the Apollo Curse over the next week. Apollo was the winner of the Kentucky Derby way back in 1882 and is the last Derby winner to have not raced as a two-year-old.

A century-old trend is nothing to sneeze at, but after an impressive three-length win over Bolt d’Oro in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), we have seen the early betting odds on Justify drop from +800 to +400 on April 11 and now down to +325 as of May 1 at Bovada.

The $500,000 Keeneland purchase is trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, who has won the Kentucky Derby four times, including with American Pharoah in 2015, who went on to win the Triple Crown.

Justify, Bolt d’Oro have three 100+ Beyers

The colt broke his maiden in his debut on Feb. 18 and then beat first level allowance foes in the mud in his second career outing. He has earned triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures in each of his three starts.

He is one of just two in the field that have earned three 100+ Beyers. Bolt d’Oro is the other.

Justify is not the only major contender that comes into the Derby undefeated and attempting to end the Apollo Curse. Magnum Moon is currently fourth in early Kentucky Derby betting at +700.

The colt went through Hot Springs to stamp his ticket to Louisville, winning the Rebel (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, who saddled last year’s Derby winner Always Dreaming, the colt did not make his debut until Jan. 13.

Mendelssohn is the current second choice in early Derby betting at +450. The colt won the UAE Derby (G2) by 18 ½ lengths in his last outing. He is trained by Aiden O’Brien and will be ridden by Ryan Moore.

Horses exiting UAE Derby 0-for-13

The colt is looking to end a curse of his own. Horses exiting the UAE Derby are 0-for-13 in the Kentucky Derby with the best finish a fifth by Master of Hounds in 2011.

Audible is seeking to become the third consecutive Kentucky Derby winner to exit the Florida Derby, following in the hoofsteps of Nyquist and Always Dreaming.

The colt is one of four sent out by Pletcher and the lowest price among the quartet at +500 in early Kentucky Derby odds at Bovada.

Pletcher’s other two runners are Wood Memorial (G2) winner Vino Rosso (+1400) and Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Noble Indy (+2500).

Article written on April 24, odds as of May 1 at Bovada

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Road to the Kentucky Derby for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

Archived Articles

t’s a long trip from Dubai, but Mendelssohn stamped himself as a major player for the Kentucky Derby (G1) after his tour de force in the UAE Derby (G2) at Meydan last Saturday and horseplayers are jumping on the bandwagon.

After his 18 ½ length victory in the desert, the Aiden O’Brien trainee dropped from +2000 before the race to the wagering favorite in early Kentucky Derby betting at Bovada at odds of +500.

Later that day Audible followed up his Holy Bull (G2) win with a score in the Florida Derby (G1), a prep race that has produced the last two Kentucky Derby winners (Always Dreaming and Nyquist). However, his price dropped from +1000 to just +800 in the latest Derby betting odds released by Bovada.

U.S. horseplayers are already familiar with Mendelssohn. He shipped to Del Mar last fall and won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) as the +450 betting favorite.

The colt returned in the Patton Stakes on the all-weather surface at Dundalk with a victory, and his UAE Derby win was his first start on conventional dirt.

UAE runners winless in Run for the Roses

Runners that competed in the UAE Derby have not fared well on the first Saturday of May, going 0-for-12. Included in that total is Thunder Snow, who last year was rank at the break and bucked, nearly dumping the jock, and was pulled up.

Thunder Snow won the 2017 UAE Derby and last Saturday took the Dubai World Cup (G1).

The best finish of any UAE Derby runner in the Run for the Roses was Master of Hounds, who was fifth in the 2011 Kentucky Derby.

In fact, since 1967 the record of horses making their final prep outside the U.S. is not pretty, just 2-for-45. The winners were Bold Forbes in 1976 (raced in Puerto Rico) and Canonero II in 1971 (raced in Venezuela).

Mendelssohn hits high notes for players

So, what are horseplayers seeing in Mendelssohn?

For one, the colt earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 106 for his UAE Derby win, the highest figure so far on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

His connections are a big plus. His trainer Aiden O’Brien is one of the world’s top conditioners. Ryan Moore piloted the colt and is considered one of the best jockeys in the world.

And then there is his pedigree. The colt is by the late sire Scat Daddy and out of the Tricky Creek mare Leslie’s Lady who has dropped a couple of nice runners.

Her best is the great mare Beholder, winner of the 2012 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and the 2013 and 2016 Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1).

She also has produced Into Mischief, who won three of his six career starts including the 2007 CashCall Futurity (G1).

With that pedigree, Mendelssohn was a hot commodity at the 2016 Keeneland September Sale, purchased for $3 million.

While horses coming from across the pond have been nearly an auto-toss over the years, Mendelssohn just might be the real deal.

Article written on April 3, odds as of April 3 at Bovada

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Road to the Kentucky Derby for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

Archived Articles

The Todd Pletcher-trained Magnum Moon won last Saturday’s $900,000 Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park, picking up 50 points toward entry into the Kentucky Derby (G1), and saw his future price for the Run for the Roses shrink from +4000 two weeks ago to his current price of +1600.

The colt made his stakes debut in the Rebel and remains undefeated after his 3 ½ length score, returning his backers $8.00. His +1600 odds now make him the co-sixth choice in early Kentucky Derby wagering at Bovada.

The runner-up in the Rebel was Solomini, the Bob Baffert trainee who was sent off as the betting favorite. The colt has drifted up from +1400 to +1600 at Bovada in early Derby betting.

Bolt d’Oro back atop derby odds

Bolt d’Oro, who spent several weeks as the second choice in Derby wagering at Bovada behind Audible, has regained the role as the betting favorite at +700.

The colt made his three-year-old debut in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita where he was beaten a head by McKinzie but was placed first via a controversial disqualification for interference in deep stretch.

Trained by Mick Ruis, the colt won a pair of Grade 1 races last year, the Del Mar Futurity and the Frontrunner, and was third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) as the beaten favorite.

His final prep for the Kentucky Derby likely will come in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 7.

McKinzie, who was placed second in the San Felipe, is the current third choice in early Kentucky Derby betting at +1000. His final prep will likely come in either the Santa Anita Derby or the Arkansas Derby (G1).

Audible won the Holy Bull (G2) at Gulfstream Park on February 3 and spent a couple of weeks as the betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby at +800. His next start will come in the Florida Derby (G1) on March 31.

Justify another big mover

Justify has taken plenty of action in the last couple of weeks, going from +2800 on March 8 down to +1200, fourth choice in early Derby wagering. The Baffert trainee makes his stakes debut in the Arkansas Derby on April 14.

Coming up this weekend we have a pair of Road to the Kentucky Derby points races — the $1-million Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds on Saturday and the $800,000 Sunland Derby (G3) at Sunland Park on Sunday.

Article written on March 20, odds as of March 20 at Bovada

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With division leaders Good Magic and Bolt d’Oro still waiting to make their much-anticipated three-year-old debuts, horseplayers have gravitated toward Holy Bull (G2) winner Audible, who is now the early betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby at Bovada at odds of +800.

Bolt d’Oro has drifted up from +700 on Feb. 5 to second choice at Bovada in early Derby betting at +900 while Good Magic remains at +1000.

By comparison, at BetOnline Bolt d’Oro is currently at +650, Good Magic is +750, Audible is +950 and McKinzie is +750.

McKinzie, the undefeated Bob Baffert trainee, won the Sham (G3) in his last outing. He remains at +1600 at Bovada in early Derby wagering.

On Saturday, the D. Wayne Lukas-trained Bravazo won the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds, picking up 50 Derby points, assuring a starting spot in the gate for the Run for the Roses.

The colt pulled off the upset, returning $44.00 with long shot Snapper Sinclair completing a $2 exacta that paid $603.40.

Bravazo is currently listed at +3300 in early Derby wagering at Bovada.

On Monday at Oaklawn Park, My Boy Jack rallied up the inside to win the Southwest (G3), picking up 10 Derby points for trainer Keith Desormeaux and his brother Kent, who was in the irons.

The colt returned his backers $19.60 with Combatant running second and Sporting Chance third.

As of Tuesday morning, Bovada had not yet added My Boy Jack to the betting, while BetOnline has the colt listed at +2000.

Sporting Chance gives Lukas a second contender as he seeks his fifth win in the Kentucky Derby. Lukas has started a record 48 runners in the first jewel of the Triple Crown.

Sporting Chance had a rough trip in the stretch in his third-place finish and was making his first start since winning the Hopeful (G1) last September at Saratoga.

The colt is listed at +4000 at Bovada and +3500 at BetOnline.

There are no Road to the Kentucky Derby points races on tap this weekend. On March 3 we have the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park that will feature the return of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champ Good Magic.

Article written on February 20, odds as of February 20 at Bovada

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Three Road to the Kentucky Derby points races were contested last Saturday with Audible coming out of his impressive victory in the $350,000 Holy Bull (G2) at Gulfstream Park taking the most betting action in Kentucky Derby future wagering.

The Todd Pletcher trainee was not on the radar among most horseplayers looking for Derby contenders but after posting a 5 ½ length win, his Kentucky Derby future odds at BetOnline have dropped to +1000.

Avery Island was the winner of the $250,000 Withers (G3) at Aqueduct, his second graded stakes win. He won the Nashua (G2) last November and then was second in the Remsen (G3).

His early Kentucky Derby betting odds drifted down to +1600 at Bovada and +2000 at BetOnline.

Lombo was the upset winner of the $150,000 Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita in his first start after breaking his maiden in his third career outing, returning his backers $19.40.

Not yet listed at Bovada, horseplayers can lock in +3500 on the colt at BetOnline.

Audible earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure for his win, while Avery Island earned an 87 and Lombo an 86.

Bolt d’Oro remains the early Kentucky Derby favorite, currently at +700 at Bovada and +750 at BetOnline. The colt won his first three starts last year before running third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).

The Juvenile winner was Good Magic, who remains the second choice in Derby betting at Bovada at +1000 while BetOnline has the Chad Brown trainee at odds of +850.

Good Magic and Firenze Fire are tied for first in the Road to the Kentucky Derby points standings with 24 each.

Firenze Fire ran second in the Withers on Saturday. The colt won the Jerome on Jan. 13 and won the Champagne (G1) last October, picking up 10 points for each win.

The colt has dropped down to +2500 in early Derby wagering at Bovada and at +4000 at BetOnline.

There is one Derby points race coming up this Saturday — the $250,000 Sam F. Davis (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs.

Among those pointing toward the race are Remsen (G3) winner Catholic Boy and Hollywood Star, who was scratched out of the Holy Bull and will be making his first start since a sixth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Article written on February 6, odds as of February 6 at Bovada

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Two-time Grade 1 winner Bolt d’Oro remains the early betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby (G1) despite a minor setback and the colt likely will be back in action in March.

The Mick Ruis trainee won his first three career starts last year, including wins in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and Frontrunner (G1). The colt was the beaten favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) where he was third behind Good Magic and Solomini.

Despite the loss the colt is the +700 early betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby at Bovada.

The betting odds may get a shakeup as there are three Road to the Kentucky Derby points races coming up — the $200,000 LeComte (G3) at Fair Grounds and the $150,000 Jerome (G3) at Aqueduct on Saturday and the $150,000 Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park on Monday.

A pulled muscle put Bolt d’Oro on the sidelines temporarily, but his next workout could come within the next couple of weeks and his next intended race is the $400,000 San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita on March 10.

His likely final prep for the Run for the Roses would come in the $1-million Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 7.

The Santa Anita Derby has produced recent Kentucky Derby winners I’ll Have Another (2012) and California Chrome (2014).

Good Magic is the second choice in early Kentucky Derby wagering at Bovada at +1000. The Chad Brown trainee won his first race when taking the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his third career start.

Hollywood Star and Solomini are co-third choices at +1200.

Hollywood Star was sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his last outing. The Dale Romans trainee showed promise last year in runner-up finishes in the Saratoga Special (G2) and Iroquois (G2).

Solomini was the runner-up in the Frontrunner and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and then crossed the wire first in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) but was placed third for interference in the stretch.

Two talented colts to keep an eye on this weekend are Champagne (G1) winner Firenze Fire, who goes in the Jerome, and Principe Guilherme, who makes his stakes debut in the LeComte after winning his first two career starts by a combined 18 lengths.

Article written on January 11, odds as of January 11 at Bovada

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The Todd Pletcher trained Always Dreaming is the tepid betting favorite for the 143rd Kentucky Derby (G1), which is now just hours away from being contested under the historic Twin Spires at Churchill Downs.

The weather forecast is calling for considerable cloudiness with occasional rain showers. The chance of rain is 100 percent.

The main track for Kentucky Oaks Day on Friday was sloppy and was favoring speed early on the card, with closers picking up a few wins late including Abel Tasman in the Oaks, the filly going from last to first to pull off the upset.

First post on Derby Day is 10:30 ET with post time for the Run for the Roses set for 6:46 ET.

Florida Derby (G1) winner Always Dreaming is the +450 betting favorite in early wagering at Bovada. The Todd Pletcher trainee will break from the five post with Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez in the irons.

Second choice in early Derby betting at Bovada is Classic Empire at +500. The 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner won the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park in his last prep.

Trained by Mark Casse, the colt will break from the 14 post with Julien Leparoux in the irons.

McCraken and Irish War Cry are the co-third choices in early Derby wagering at Bovada at +600.

The Ian Wilkes trained McCraken suffered his first defeat in a third-place finish in the Blue Grass 9 (G2) at Keeneland in his last outing. He won his first four career starts, three of those coming over the Churchill Downs main track.

Brian Hernandez Jr. seeks his first Derby victory and will break the son of Ghostzapper from the 15 post.

Irish War Cry is coming off an impressive victory in the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct in his last outing. He is trained by Graham Motion, who saddled 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, who returned $43.20 to win.

Rajiv Maragh, who recently returned to riding after being on the sidelines for 16 months because of injuries he suffered in a spill, will be aboard the colt and they will break from the 17 post.

Untrapped and State of Honor share honors for the biggest long shots in the field of 20, each at +5000.

Post time for the Kentucky Derby, which is the 12th of 14 races on the Churchill Downs card is scheduled for 6:46 ET and will be broadcast live on NBC.

Article written on May 6, odds as of May 6 at Bovada