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2019 Kentucky Derby Odds: Omaha Beach Scratch Leaves Game Winner as Derby Favorite

If you had a future wager on early Kentucky Derby favorite Omaha Beach you can head back to the drawing board, as his trainer Richard Mandella announced on Wednesday that the brilliant colt would miss Saturday’s race.

On the revised morning line, the Bob Baffert trained Game Winner is now the favorite at 4-1. Churchill Downs revised the morning line after the scratch of the favorite.

Bet on the 2019 Kentucky Derby here!

An entrapped epiglottis, which affects the colt’s breathing is the culprit. Minor surgery is likely, and the colt will miss his chance in the two most exciting minutes in sports.

Omaha Beach had been as low as +350 in early Kentucky Derby wagering at Bovada.

Maximum Security, Tacitus Early Movers in Kentucky Derby Betting

Wagering on the Kentucky Derby (G1) opened on Friday and with just under $1 million in the betting pool it was Maximum Security and Tacitus that were taking the most action in the win pool.

Florida Derby (G1) winner Maximum Security is the tepid early favorite for the Run for the Roses at 9-2, down from his morning line of 8-1 while Tacitus is the co-second choice at 5-1, also down from an 8-1 morning line.

Game Winer inherited the honor of morning line favorite at 9-2 after the Wednesday scratch of Omaha Beach. The Bob Baffert trainee is currently 6-1 in early wagering.

Improbable is the co-second choice in early betting at 5-1, matching his morning line odds of 5-1. The colt is trained by Baffert.

Baffert’s third runner is Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Roadster, who has drifted up to 9-1 off his 5-1 morning line odds.

Cutting Honor, who has a late jockey switch from Corey Lanerie to Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith has dropped to 22-1 from his 30-1 morning line. Smith was originally scheduled to ride Omaha Beach, who had to scratch on Wednesday due to an entrapped epiglottis.

By My Standards, the Louisiana Derby (G2) winner has been the buzz horse on the backstretch this week. He was listed at 20-1 on the original morning line and lowered to 15-1 after the scratch of Omaha Beach. His odds after Friday’s betting was listed at 14-1.

Serengeti Empress won Friday’s Kentucky Oaks (G1) paying $28.00 for $2 and in the Oaks/ Derby daily double it is Improbable that has the lowest will pay at $110.60 for a $1 wager. The payoff with Tacitus is $111.40, followed by Game Winner at $116.30 and Maximum Security at $123.90.

In addition to Omaha Bach, Haikal scratched on Friday, leaving a field of 19.

Despite rains that fell Thursday into Friday morning the track was labeled as fast for the Kentucky Oaks on Friday afternoon. There is an 80% chance of rain on Saturday.

Showers are forecast to start around 1:00 and continue throughout the afternoon into the evening.

The Weather Channel lists the chance of rain at 50% for 5:00 and 40% at 6:00. Post time for the Kentucky Derby is 6:50.

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Odds to Win 2019 Kentucky Derby
HorseOdds
Game Winner+400
Roadster+450
Improbable+500
Tacitus+600
Maximum Security+650
By My Standards+1600
Code Of Honor+1600
Win Win Win+1600
War of Will+1800
Vekoma+2000
Tax+2500
Bodexpress+2800
Cutting Humor+2800
Plus Que Parfait+3300
Spinoff+3300
Country House+4000
Long Range Toddy+4000
Gray Magician+5000
Master Fencer+6600

Odds as of May 4 at Bovada

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Triple Crown for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

 

If you had a future wager on early Kentucky Derby favorite Omaha Beach you can head back to the drawing board, as his trainer Richard Mandella announced on Wednesday that the brilliant colt would miss Saturday’s race.

On the revised morning line, the Bob Baffert trained Game Winner is now the favorite at 9-2. Churchill Downs revised the morning line after the scratch of the favorite.

Bet on the 2019 Kentucky Derby here!

An entrapped epiglottis, which affects the colt’s breathing is the culprit. Minor surgery is likely, and the colt will miss his chance in the two most exciting minutes in sports.

Omaha Beach had been as low as +350 in early Kentucky Derby wagering at Bovada.

The beneficiary to the scratch is the connections of Bodexpress, who now draws into the field and is 30-1 on the revised morning line. The colt is still a maiden, a runner up in the Florida Derby (G1) at 71-1 in his last start.

Game Winner was the 2018 champion two-year-old after his victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last fall at Churchill Downs. The colt spent most of the past five months as the early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. The colt was at +850 back in December.

Runner up finishes in his two starts this year, the Rebel (G2) at Oaklawn Park and the Santa Anita Derby (G1) was enough for Omaha Beach and his stablemate Roadster to overtake him in early Derby wagering.

Roadster and Improbable are now the co-second choices on the morning line at 5-1, giving Baffert the top three choices on the morning line as he seeks his sixth win in the Run for the Roses, which would tie Ben Jones for the most in history.

Florida Derby (G1) winner Maximum Security and Wood Memorial (G2) winner Tacitus dropped from 10-1 to 8-1, while War at Will dropped from 20-1 to 15-1.

Derby Sleepers

War at Will has been one of the buzz horses this week at Churchill Downs. The colt was off poorly and not a threat in a ninth-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds in his last outing. He won the Risen Star (G2) and the LeComte (G3) in his two previous starts.

The other buzz horse on the backstretch this week is By My Standards. His morning line price has dropped from 20-1 to 15-1. He won the Louisiana Derby (G2) last out in his stakes debut.

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Odds to Win 2019 Kentucky Derby
HorseOdds
Game Winner+350
Roadster+350
Improbable+500
Tacitus+600
Maximum Security+700
Code Of Honor+1000
War Of Will+1600
Vekoma+1600
By My Standards+1600
Tax+2200
Win Win Win+2000
Bodexpress+2200
Haikal+2500
Cutting Humor+2500
Spinoff+2800
Plus Que Parfait+2800
Country House+3300
Long Range Toddy+4000
Gray Magician+5000
Master Fencer+5000

Odds as of May 2 at Bovada

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Triple Crown for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

Archived Articles

The Richard Mandella-trained Omaha Beach drew post 12 for Saturday’s $3 million Kentucky Derby (G1) and was installed as the 4-1 morning line favorite.

A field of 20 will head to the gate in the first jewel of the Triple Crown and Tuesday’s post position draw was uneventful for the most part, with the major contenders drawing posts their connections can live with.

Bet on the 2019 Kentucky Derby here!

Omaha Beach drew perfectly with the 12 and his jockey Mike Smith should be able to get him a good position early in the race.

The colt is currently listed as the early betting favorite at Bovada, down to +300 after being at +400 on Monday.

If the colt does indeed go off as the betting favorite as expected he will be looking to become the seventh straight favorite to win the Run for the Roses.

The highest payoff among those favorites was Orb in 2013, who returned $12.80.

The Baffert Trio

With Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert having three major contenders in the race, the price on Omaha Beach may drift upward, and I expect to see him somewhere between 9-2 and 5-1 by post time on Saturday.

Baffert’s trio are Improbable, who drew the five post, and Game Winner and Roadster, who will break next to each other in the 16 and 17 posts respectively.

Roadster is the current second choice in early Kentucky Derby wagering at +450 while Game Winner is the third choice at +500. Improbable is the fourth choice in the early betting at Bovada at +700.

There is the “Curse of the 17 Post” that Roadster will have to overcome. Since 1930, among the 20 post positions, the 17 is the lone post without a winner, going 0 for 39.

The 18 through 20 posts are not exactly the place to be either. Those posts are a combined 3 for 73.

The three drawing the outside posts this year are all longshots — Long Range Toddy, Spinoff and Country Home.

War at Will drew the dreaded one post. The colt is currently at +1500. He was off poorly in his last start in the Louisiana Derby where he tired to finish ninth. In his previous starts, he showed speed and expect to see him fire early breaking from the rail.

The Kentucky Derby is the highlight of an outstanding 14-race card on Saturday at Churchill Downs. The races will be televised live on the NBC Sports Network and NBC. The first post is at 10:30am ET.

Want to have a VIP Betting Experience in Las Vegas for you and a guest? Enter our Kentucky Derby contest for your chance to win.

Odds to Win 2019 Kentucky Derby
HorseOdds
Omaha Beach+300
Roadster+450
Game Winner+500
Improbable+600
Tacitus+800
Maximum Security+1000
Code Of Honor+1400
War Of Will+1600
Vekoma+1800
By My Standards+1800
Tax+2200
Win Win Win+2000
Bodexpress+2000
Haikal+2500
Cutting Humor+2800
Spinoff+3300
Plus Que Parfait+3300
Country House+3300
Long Range Toddy+3300
Gray Magician+5000
Master Fencer+5000

Odds as of April 30 at Bovada

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Triple Crown for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

Archived Articles

Call it the “Mike Smith Factor” or perhaps horseplayers just can’t decide who is best among the three Bob Baffert contenders, but Omaha Beach has now taken over the role as the early betting favorite for the 145th Kentucky Derby (G1).

Bet on the 2019 Kentucky Derby here!

Last week the Baffert trained Game Winner and Roadster were co-favorites at Bovada at +500 with Omaha Beach the third choice at +600.

Now Omaha Beach has dropped to +400, taking over the role as early wagering favorite a day before the post position draw and five days until Derby Day.

Roadster is now the second choice at +450 while Game Winner is the third choice at +500. Improbable is next at +650 in early Derby betting.

Omaha Beach won the Rebel (G2) on March 16 in his stakes debut, defeating Game Winner by a nose and came back to win the Arkansas Derby (G1) in his last outing, beating Improbable by a length.

Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith was aboard for his two wins, but also rode Roadster in his four career starts, winning the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in his last start.

Smith had a tough decision to make between the two top Derby contenders and is sticking with Omaha Beach, even though Smith rode Baffert’s Justify, sweeping the Triple Crown last year.

Omaha Beach is trained by Richard Mandella, who is 0 for 6 with his Derby starters and has not saddled a Derby starter since 2004.

However, don’t let that record fool you. Mandella is a Hall of Fame trainer who has won plenty of big races including nine Breeders’ Cup races, four in 2003.

Baffert going for sixth Derby Win

Baffert, who is seeking his sixth Kentucky Derby victory, which would tie him for the record held by Ben Jones, sends out a trio of runners and they are all major players.

Roadster has emerged as the second choice in the betting despite losing Smith. He picks up a very capable rider in Florent Geroux.

Game Winner was undefeated as a juvenile, capping off his championship season by winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). He has spent most of the past five months as the early betting favorite for the Run for the Roses.

However, after his nose loss in the Rebel (G2) and his half-length defeat in a runner up finish in the Santa Anita Derby, he does not look as invincible as he once did.

Improbable is Baffert’s third runner, and he was perfect in his three starts last year and like his stablemate ran second in his two starts this year.

The colt was the fourth choice at +2000 in Derby future wagering before winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) last December and has remained a leading contender. He is now the fourth choice in early Derby wagering at +650.

Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and Wood Memorial (G2) winner Tacitus has dropped from +1000 to +800 in the past week.

Odds could shift around after Tuesday morning’s post position draw, scheduled for 10:45am ET.

Odds to Win 2019 Kentucky Derby
HorseOdds
Omaha Beach+400
Roadster+450
Game Winner+500
Improbable+650
Tacitus+800
Maximum Security+1000
Code Of Honor+1400
Vekoma+1800
War Of Will+1800
Cutting Humor+2200
By My Standards+2500
Bourbon War+2500
Tax+2500
Win Win Win+2500
Bourbon War+2500
Anothertwistafate+2500
Bodexpress+2500
Haikal+2800
Spinoff+2800
Plus Que Parfait+3300
Country House+3300
Long Range Toddy+3300
Signalman+4000
Gray Magician+5000
Sueno+6600
Master Fencer+6600

Odds as of April 29 at Bovada

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Triple Crown for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

Archived Articles

For six straight years now the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner has gone off as the betting favorite. That is an amazing statistic considering it is usually a 20-horse field of runners that have no experience at the 1¼ mile distance of the first jewel of the Triple Crown.

Can that streak continue?

Bet on the 2019 Kentucky Derby here!

This year’s field is so wide open that with just over two weeks to go before the first Saturday of May, it is not exactly clear who the favorite will even be.

Mike Battaglia, who makes the morning line at Churchill Downs, said a few days ago he thought he would make Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Roadster the morning line favorite.

However, yesterday it was announced that Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith will hop off Roadster and stick with Omaha Beach, the winner of the Rebel (G2) and Arkansas Derby (G1) under Smith in his last two starts.

Roadster, Game Winner co-favorites at +500

In the past week, Omaha Beach has gone from +1200 in early Kentucky Derby wagering at Bovada down to +550, the third choice in the wagering.

On April 10, Roadster had dropped down to the favorite at +500 while 2018 champion juvenile Game Winner was co-second choice at +700 with Improbable.

Things have tightened up with Roadster and Game Winner now the co-favorites at +500, Omaha Beach at +550 and Improbable still at +700.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert will saddle Roadster, Game Winner and Improbable.

Roadster, winner of three of his four career starts, will pick up a new jockey in Florent Geroux.

Game Winner, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner who spent the winter as the early betting favorite for the Kentucky Derby at Bovada, is 0-for-2 this year but ran well in both outings.

The colt was beaten a nose by Omaha Beach in the split Rebel at Oaklawn Park and then ran second beaten a half-length by his stablemate Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby.

Omaha Beach may end up going off as Derby favorite

Improbable was undefeated as a juvenile but ran second in both of his starts this year — a neck loss in the other division of the Rebel and he was beaten a length by Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby (G1).

With Baffert winning the Triple Crown in two of the last four years, his trio of contenders figure to take plenty of action on Derby Day.

However, with Baffert fans having a choice between three of the top four betting choices, Omaha Beach may end up going off as the betting favorite.

It is so close among the top contenders that how they work in the mornings over the next two weeks could determine who goes off as the favorite.

While the quartet are going to get most of the attention in the next couple of weeks, there are plenty of other formidable contenders that could be heard from.

Among those are Florida Derby (G1) winner Maximum Security (+1000), Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and Wood Memorial (G2) victor Tacitus (+1100), and Code of Honor (+1400), the Fountain of Youth (G2) winner who was third in the Florida Derby in his most recent start.

Odds to Win 2019 Kentucky Derby
HorseOdds
Game Winner+500
Roadster+500
Omaha Beach+550
Improbable+700
Maximum Security+1000
Tacitus+1100
Vekoma+1200
Code Of Honor+1400
By My Standards+2000
Cutting Humor+2000
Instagrand+2000
Tax+2000
Win Win Win+2000
Bourbon War+2200
War Of Will+2200
Anothertwistafate+2500
Haikal+2500
Plus Que Parfait+2500
Spinoff+2500
Bodexpress+3300
Country House+3300
Long Range Toddy+3300
Signalman+4000
Sueno+5000
Master Fencer+6600

Odds as of April 17 at Bovada

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Road to the Kentucky Derby for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

 

Archived Articles

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert had to change his plans with his two Kentucky Derby (G1) favorites Game Winner and Improbable after the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita was canceled, shipping them both a week later to Oaklawn Park for the Rebel (G2) on March 16.

The Rebel ended up getting split into two divisions and the two undefeated colts were both sent off as the chalk, but both came up short.

Despite the losses, the pair remain the early favorites for the Kentucky Derby at Bovada. Game Winer is the current favorite at +700 while his stablemate Improbable is the second choice at +750.

Improbable ran in the first division of the Rebel, sent off as the -250 favorite, but was caught at the wire by Long Range Toddy, beaten a neck.

Game Winner was sent off as the chalk in the second division of the Rebel and he too came out on the wrong end of a photo, beaten a nose by Omaha Beach.

Both colts were making their three-year-old debuts and certainly should move forward in their final Derby prep races.

Game Winner won Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs

Improbable was making his first start since winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) on December 8. Game Winner was making his first start since winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) on November 2 at Churchill Downs.

Game Winner has 45 Road to the Kentucky Derby points which should be enough to get him into the starting gate on the first Saturday of May. His final prep will come in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 6.

Improbable will likely ship back to Hot Springs for the Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park on April 13. His 25 Derby points puts him 15th in the standings but he needs to pick up more points in his final prep to lock in a starting spot for the Run for the Roses.

Last Sunday, Baffert also had the beaten favorite in the Sunland Derby (G3) with Mucho Gusto. The colt had previously won the Robert B. Lewis (G3) which was his third win in his first four career starts.

The colt has drifted up to +2500 in early Kentucky Derby wagering at Bovada after the loss.

Hidden Scroll, Code of Honor are third and fourth favorites

Baffert will send out the promising Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). The colt was an impressive winner against first level optional claimers in his last outing on March 1.

The start was his first since running third in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) on September 3. The colt is taking some action in early Kentucky Derby betting at +2000 at Bovada.

The third and fourth choices in early Kentucky Derby wagering will be in action on Saturday in the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park.

Hidden Scroll (+1200) was fourth in the Fountain of Youth (G2) in his stakes debut. He was sent off as the +120 betting choice off just one start, a smart-looking maiden score on January 26.

Code of Honor (+1400) bounced back from a disappointing fourth-place finish in the Mucho Macho Man on January 5 to win the Fountain of Youth by three-quarters of a length, returning his backers $21.00.

The Florida Derby and the UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai on Saturday each offer up 100-40-20-10 Derby points.

Odds to Win 2019 Kentucky Derby
HorseOdds
Game Winner+700
Improbable+750
Hidden Scroll+1200
Code of Honor+1400
Omaha Beach+1600
Bourbon War+2000
Instagrand+2000
Roadster+2000
Rowayton+2000
Anothertwistafate+2500
Complexity+2500
Global Campaign+2500
Harvey Wallbanger+2500
Maximus Mischief+2500
Mucho+2500
Mucho Gusto+2500
Nolo Contesto+2500
Tacitus+2500
US Navy Cross+2500
Vekoma+2500
War Of Will+2500
Win Win Win+2500
Cairo Cat+3300
Call Paul+3300
Country House+3300
Frosted Ice+3300
Galilean+3300
Gunmetal Gray+3300
King For A Day+3300
Mihos +3300
Signalman +3300
Coliseum +4000
Network Effect+4000
Royal Marine  +4000
Standard Deviation +4000
Knicks Go +6600
Walking Thunder +6600

Odds as of March 26 at Bovada

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Road to the Kentucky Derby for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

Archived Articles

The Ken McPeek-trained Signalman sent out a strong signal on Saturday that he is indeed a Kentucky Derby (G1) contender by winning the $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs.

The colt was a game neck winner over +1400 long shot Plus Que Parfait and returned his backers $9.20 for a $2 win wager.

His price in early Kentucky Derby future wagering at Bovada dropped from +3300 to +2500 after his victory. The colt is now tied for second in the Road to the Kentucky Derby points standings with 18.

After breaking his maiden in his second career start at Saratoga, he ran a good second in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland at +1000 and then was dismissed at +6700 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) where he checked in third, beaten 3¼ lengths by the winner Game Winner.

Game Winner remains derby favorite at +850

Game Winner, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, remains the betting favorite for the Run for the Roses at Bovada, drifting up from +800 three weeks ago to his current price of +850.

The colt is perfect in four starts, capping off his two-year-old campaign by winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) on Nov. 2 at Churchill Downs, wrapping up championship honors in his division.

Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby five times and has swept the Triple Crown twice in the last four years, with American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify last year.

Coliseum was taking betting action at Bovada while he was still unraced, at +2000 a week before he made his debut on Nov. 17 for Baffert.

He ran to his reputation, destroying the field by 6¾ lengths, and now has dropped to the co-second choice in early Derby betting at Bovada +1800.

Coliseum, Instagrand co-second choices in wagering

Baffert also has two of the co-third choices in early Kentucky Derby wagering. Improbable is at +2000, and he is perfect in his two career starts. The colt won the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs on Nov. 2 in his last start.

Mucho Gusto is at +2000 for Baffert and this colt is undefeated in two starts. He won the Bob Hope (G3) at Del Mar on Nov. 17 in his last outing.

The Jerry Hollendorfer-trained Instagrand is the current co-second choice at +1800. The colt won both his starts by 10 lengths, winning the Best Pal (G2) at Del Mar on Aug. 11. His connections elected to skip the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile to freshen the colt up for his three-year-old campaign.

Two other Baffert runners taking action are Roadster at +2500, the runner-up of the Del Mar Futurity (G1), and Magic On Tap, an impressive maiden winner who is +3300.

The next Road to the Kentucky Derby points race comes up this Saturday. The $250,000 Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct will offer up 10-4-2-1 points to the top four finishers toward entry into the Kentucky Derby. 

Odds to Win 2019 Kentucky Derby
HorseOdds
Game Winner+850
Coliseum+1800
Instagrand+1800
Improbable+2000
Mucho Gusto+2000
Rowayton+2000
Code Of Honor+2500
Complexity+2500
Endorsed+2500
Roadster+2500
Signalman+2500
US Navy Cross+2500
Vekoma+2500
Cairo Cat+3300
Call Paul+3300
Frosted Ice+3300
King For A Day+3300
Knicks Go+3300
Magic On Tap+3300
Network Effect+3300
Nitrous+3300
Preamble+3300
Sombeyay+3300
Strike Silver+3300
Tale Of The Union+3300
Dueling+4000
Gunmetal Gray+4000
Maximus Mischief+4000
Mind Control+4000
Mucho +4000
Quick Entry +4000
Standard Deviation +4000
Trophy Chaser+4000
Royal Marine  +5000
Tobacco Road +6600
Whiskey Echo +6600

Odds as of November 26 at Bovada

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Road to the Kentucky Derby for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

Archived Articles

It should be no surprise that Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has the early betting favorite for the 2019 Kentucky Derby.

Game Winner kept his perfect record intact last Saturday, winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Churchill Downs, and is the +800 betting favorite in 2019 Kentucky Derby wagering at Bovada.

Baffert has won the Run for the Roses five times and his last two winners — Justify this year and American Pharoah in 2015 — went on to become Triple Crown winners.

Game Winner is well on his way to being the betting favorite on the first Saturday of May. The buzz started after a 5¾ length victory in his debut at Del Mar on Aug. 18, then he won the Del Mar Futurity (G1) going seven furlongs in his stakes debut.

He followed up that effort with a win in the American Pharoah, which was his first start around two turns. Now his Juvenile win gives him a leg up on his competition with a win under the Twin Spires at Churchill Downs.

Baffert has Improbable challenger in derby

Baffert has another major player in Improbable, who is the co-third choice in early Kentucky Derby betting at Bovada at +2000.

The colt ran on the undercard on Breeders’ Cup Friday, winning the Street Sense Stakes by 7¼ lengths. The colt earned a 93 Beyer Speed Figure, the same number his stablemate earned in his Juvenile victory.

The second choice in early Derby wagering at Bovada is on the shelf until next year. The Jerry Hollendorfer-trained Instagrand is currently listed at +1600.

The colt broke his maiden at Los Alamitos in June by 10 lengths, then won the Best Pal Stakes (G2) at Del Mar in August by 10¼ lengths. He was the early betting favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but his owner decided to put him on the sidelines until early next year.

Knicks Go won Breeders’ Futurity at 70-1 odds

Knicks Go is among four horses grouped at +2000 in early Derby wagering at Bovada and may finally start earning some respect.

Trained by Ben Colebrook, the colt pulled off a huge upset in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland at +7000.

Despite that win, he was dismissed at +4000 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he prompted the early pace and held on to the runner-up spot.

In addition to Knicks Go and Improbable, other contenders listed at +2000 are Coliseum, a son of Tapit who is in the Baffert barn and has not made his debut yet, and Rowayton, who was second in the Del Mar Futurity and third in the American Pharoah.

The next Road to the Kentucky Derby points race is the $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs on Nov. 23.

Handicapper Michael Dempsey will be covering the Road to the Kentucky Derby for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at turfnsport.com.

Odds to Win 2019 Kentucky Derby
HorseOdds
Game Winner+800
Instagrand+1600
Coliseum+2000
Improbable+2000
Knicks Go+2000
Rowayton+2000
Complexity+2500
Endorsed+2500
Mucho Gusto+2500
Roadster+2500
US Navy Cross+2500
Vekoma+2500
Aurelius Maximus+3300
Cairo Cat+3300
Call Paul+3300
Code Of Honor+3300
Dream Maker+3300
Fortin Hill +3300
Frosted Ice+3300
Gunmetal Gray+3300
King For A Day+3300
Maximus Mischief+3300
Mucho+3300
Network Effect+3300
Preamble+3300
Signalman+3300
Strike Silver+3300
Tale Of The Union+3300
Dueling+4000
Epic Dreamer +4000
Magic On Tap +4000
Mind Control +4000
Nitrous +4000
Quick Entry +4000
Royal Marine +4000
Sombeyay +4000
Standard Deviation +4000
Trophy Chaser +4000
Tobacco Road +6600
Whiskey Echo +6600

Odds as of November 8 at Bovada

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It is Derby Day and it is time to finalize your final picks and come up with a betting strategy and now we have another factor to consider — Mother Nature.

Earlier this week there was a 90 percent chance of rain for Kentucky Oaks Day on Friday, and we saw no rain, zip, nada. On Wednesday the forecast for Louisville for Saturday was partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain.

Once again, the National Weather Service may be wrong. Now there is a 60 percent chance of showers throughout much of the day, decreasing as post time will approach at 6:50 ET.

If the rains do come, who does it benefit?

Justify, the current favorite at Bovada at odds of +325, won his second career start over a muddy surface and has a decent enough off-track pedigree. My Boy Jack (+1200) won the Southwest (G3) over a muddy track at Oaklawn Park. Firenze Fire (+6600) won the Jerome on a muddy track at Aqueduct.

There are several top contenders that have not raced on an off track but are bred to do so. Among those are Audible (+700), Good Magic (+1000), Hofburg (+1800) and Bolt d’Oro (+700).

The Churchill Downs racing strip dries out quickly, so if the rains do stop by midafternoon, there is still a good chance we see a fast track by post time for the Run for the Roses.

Oaks-Derby Double

Monomoy Girl won Friday’s Kentucky Oaks (G1) and in the Oaks-Derby Double Justify is the favorite and will return $16.60. The second-lowest payoff is Mendelssohn at $21.00, Audible third at $29.50.

My Boy Jack took some action considering his +3000 morning line. The double payoff is $98.50, and he has been bet down at Bovada to +1200.

By comparison, Hofburg, who is +2000 on the morning line and has been a buzz horse this week, will pay $85.30 in the Oaks-Derby Double and is +1800 at Bovada.

Derby Resources

Here are a few must-read articles before wagering on this year’s Derby:

2018 Kentucky Derby Betting Trends and Facts

2018 Kentucky Derby Favorites and Sleepers

Kentucky Derby Horse by Horse Preview for the Sports Bettor

2018 Kentucky Derby Post Positions  

Derby Undercard

The Derby is race 12 on a blockbuster 14-race card that kicks off at 10:30 a.m. ET and there are two races following the Derby, the post for race 14 at 8:20 p.m. ET.

Here are a few contenders to look for:

Race 6 The Humana Distaff: Five of these are exiting a blanket finish in the Madison (G1) but we will go in a different direction with left coast shipper Skye Diamonds. The mare broke outward coming out of the gate, tracked the early pace and finished evenly in a third-place finish in the Santa Monica (G2). The runner-up Marley’s Freedom came back to beat Alw-2 optional claimers in her next outing. Our top pick won five of seven last year earning consistent numbers good enough to win in this spot. She owns a solid pace profile throughout and gets a jock upgrade here to Smith.

Race 8 The Churchill Downs: Imperial Hint was a much the best winner last out at Tampa Bay Downs beating up on Florida breds going six furlongs off a 4 1/2-month break. The Carvajal trainee won his first four starts of ’17 for fun and then headed for home with the lead in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) but got run down by Roy H who came back to win the Palos Verdes (G2) in his first start this year. Our top pick owns solid early and mid pace numbers and he has won three of his four starts at seven furlongs. His last speed fig comes up light compared to his numbers last year, but he was not extended last out and is going to move forward off his last start.

Race 11 The Old Forester Turf Classic: Kurilov is going to be the higher price of the Chad Brown duo in this race. The five-year-old is 0-for-3 since landing in the U.S. but he is getting better with each outing and has lost photos in his last pair. Last out in the Gulfstream Park Turf (G1) he stalked the early pace and finished gamely to miss by just a neck as the tough Heart to Heart managed to take the field gate to wire. The winner came back to win the Makers 46 Mile (G1) at Keeneland in his next outing. The third in the GP Turf was Hi Happy, who came back to Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream Park on March 31 with a 105 Beyer. He returns here off a 2 1/2-month break for Brown who is 30 percent winners with runners coming back off a 45-180-day break. Looks like decent value if he goes off near his +600 morning line.

Odds to Win 2018 Kentucky Derby
HorseOdds
Justify+325
Mendelssohn+350
Audible+700
Bolt d’Oro+700
Magnum Moon+750
Good Magic+1000
My Boy Jack+1200
Vino Rosso+1600
Hofburg+1800
Solomini+2500
Enticed+3000
Noble Indy+4000
Free Drop Billy+4500
Flameaway+5000
Lone Sailor+5000
Promises Fulfilled+6000
Instilled Regard+6600
Firenze Fire+6600
Bravazo+7500
Combatant+8500

Odds as of May 5 at Bovada

.turfnsport.com will be covering the Road to the Kentucky Derby for OddsShark and his full card reports with selections, analysis, fair odds line and wagering recommendations for major tracks can be found daily at Handicapper Michael Dempsey

 

 

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