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Odds to Win the NBA Western Conference: It’s the Warriors and Everyone Else

NBA Western Conference Betting Odds September 14

A berth in the NBA Finals from the Western Conference is no easy task but the Golden State Warriors are certainly making it look that way. The Warriors and their four all-stars have won four straight Western Conference finals so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see that they’re the odds-on favorite to win their fifth in a row.

Online sportsbook Bovada has listed the Warriors at -245 to win the Western Conference followed by the Houston Rockets at +550, the Los Angeles Lakers at +650, the Oklahoma City Thunder at +1500 and the Utah Jazz at +3500 to round out the top five.

I won’t spend much time harping on the Warriors as they are built to contend for at least another three or four seasons and have the matchup edge at every position outside of center. So, because every team’s chances are dependent on pulling off an upset, let’s break down the odds for some upset specials:

Los Angeles Lakers

A lot is still up in the air for how this roster will translate to the regular season but with LeBron James in the fold, they cannot be dismissed. The Lakers roster has some interesting pieces like Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma and Lonzo Ball that should develop quickly when they get to play with a top-three player of all time.

The Western Conference is so competitive that the Lakers could be a top-three team or an eight seed depending on how they finish the season. Last year, the difference between a three seed and the eight seed was five games. I expect them to win at least 50 games next year, which should put them near the top, so it comes down to how they will match up with Golden State. If the Lakers can repeat being a top-three team guarding the three-point line from last season, they could be in line to pull off an upset.

Utah Jazz

The Jazz are my pick to win their division and make it to the conference final to play the Warriors. They may have the best home-court advantage in the NBA and they beat the Warriors when they came to Salt Lake City during the regular season. The Jazz only allowed 99.8 points per game at home last year and guard Donovan Mitchell may be the best up-and-coming player in the NBA. At +3500, the value may be too hard to pass up.

San Antonio Spurs

The only team in the West to really give Golden State fits over the last four years, this isn’t the same Spurs roster that controlled the Warriors’ perimeter game. But they do have some pieces that could make them tough to beat come playoff time as DeMar DeRozan should be able to pair nicely with LaMarcus Aldridge and Gregg Popovich’s system.

They’ve always been a tough out at home and if the Warriors go on cruise control again and punt on the regular season, the Spurs could end up having home-court advantage in a potential playoff series. Do I think they have enough based on the roster as currently constructed? Probably not but based on value alone and the winning tradition of the Spurs organization, the value at +4000 is decent.

Odds to Win NBA Western Conference in 2018-19 Season
  • Golden State Warriors -245
  • Houston Rockets +550
  • Los Angeles Lakers +650
  • Oklahoma City Thunder +1500
  • Utah Jazz +3500
  • San Antonio Spurs +4000
  • New Orleans Pelicans +6000
  • Denver Nuggets +7500
  • Portland Trail Blazers +7500
  • Minnesota Timberwolves +8000
  • Dallas Mavericks +9000
  • Los Angeles Clippers +10000
  • Memphis Grizzlies +17500
  • Phoenix Suns +17500
  • Sacramento Kings +30000

Odds as of October 16 at Bovada