A showdown in the SEC has the No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats making their way to the Auburn Arena to tip off against the No. 14 Auburn Tigers. Both teams enter this game with impressive 13-3 records and Kentucky holds a 3-1 conference record, while Auburn is 2-1 against SEC opponents. This is the first time these teams have met when they both ranked since 2003 and the Tigers are 4-point favorites with the total set at 146 points.
- The total has gone OVER in five of Auburn’s last eight games.
- Kentucky is 19-2 SU but 9-10-2 ATS in its last 21 games vs Auburn.
- Auburn averages the fifth-most three-pointers made per game in the nation. (10.9)
Kentucky vs Auburn Game Center
Tigers get a lot of production from long range
After dropping its Sportsbook SEC game this season 82-67 at Ole Miss, Auburn has rattled off back-to-back wins over Georgia and at Texas A&M. The Tigers’ other two losses this year also came on the road at NC State and to then-No. 1 Duke in the Maui Invitational. At home, though, they are a perfect 9-0 SU and 5-3 ATS, with the game against Mississippi College not having a spread.
Three-pointers have been the key to victory for the Tigers this year as they average the fifth-most treys per game in the nation at 10.9 and excluding their Mississippi College game that number rises to 11.1 which ranks fourth. I’m excluding the Mississippi College game because that’s the stats that I have. Not only does Auburn hit a lot of triples, but it attempts 30.3 three-point shots per game which are the fourth-most in college basketball and 40.1 percent of its total points come from downtown. Additionally, they grab the third-most offensive rebounds per game at 13.4 which leads to more shot attempts at 65.8 ranking for eighth most.
Despite being very successful offensively from beyond the arc, they don’t do a great job at defending the three-ball. Opponents are shooting 35.6 percent from deep which is the 109th-highest percentage in college basketball and 37.1 percent of points against them come from out there. However, fortunately for the Tigers, the Wildcats only get 22.5 percent of their points from three-point range which is the 11th-lowest percentage in the NCAA.
Wildcats Eye a fourth straight win
Kentucky enters this game riding high after picking up three straight wins, topped off with a 69-49 thumping at Georgia on Tuesday. The start of SEC play didn’t go as planned as it fell at Alabama 77-75. That has a similar feel to the beginning of the season when it was swarmed 118-84 against then-No. 4 Duke. The only other defeat Kentucky had was a narrow 84-83 overtime loss to Seton Hall in the Citi Hoops Classic.
No need to protect the three-point line when the Wildcats are on the court as they take just 17.3 shots from beyond the arc which is the 18th-fewest in the nation and they hit just six triples per game. However, Kentucky still piles up the points as it has scored 80 or more in nine of its 16 games this season and it is averaging 80.1 ppg overall, but that drops to 77 on the road. The scoring is well-rounded with four different players chipping in double-digit points per game, led by freshman guard Keldon Johnson who is pouring in 14.6 ppg.
Due to Kentucky’s strong play with its forwards and inside the arc, it does a fantastic job defending down low, limiting its opponents to shooting just 45.3 percent from two-point range, good for 30th in the NCAA. However, the Wildcats are vulnerable to three-pointers as their foes are hitting 36.2 percent of their attempts from out there and they are sinking an average of 8.1 per game which is the 122nd-most in college basketball – not good against a sharpshooting team in Auburn.
Should you be on the OVER?
Kentucky and Auburn are two of the top 40 scoring teams in the nation and Sportsbook has the total Sportsbook at 146 points. The Wildcats have split their last eight games with four games going OVER and four going UNDER, but five of those games went OVER 146 points with an average combined score of 141.13.
Meanwhile, the Tigers have had just one game in their last eight in which the total didn’t push or go OVER 146 points, with an average combined score of 155.63. I think Auburn is going to do well from the three-point line and is going to be able to score at will which will force Kentucky to push the pace to keep up and I think the OVER is going to come through.
My take on Kentucky and Auburn
I like the OVER 146 points. Although both teams are nearly equal in OVERs/UNDERs this season, they each have frequently gone OVER tonight’s total of 146. Kentucky is very bad at defending the long-range shots, where Auburn excels, which will lead to the Tigers piling on the points.
Meanwhile, The Wildcats are going to have to take a few three-pointers to open up their play down low, but if they’re trailing, I expect them to pick up the pace and take more shots which will help carry the OVER. Lastly, Auburn has gone OVER 146 points in seven of its nine home games this season with an average combined score of 152.89.
