Illinois vs Oregon Odds & Picks Week 9: Spread Is A Bit Too Big For The Ducks

Things are good for Oregon football, which last weekend recorded its first road shutout since 1992 before ascending to No. 1 in the new AP poll. Now the unbeaten Ducks are 21.5-point home favorites over a nationally ranked Illinois team that heads to Eugene at 6-1 overall and in the thick of a crowded Big 10 race.

While Oregon has split its past six games ATS, the Ducks have covered in their last two—beating Ohio State as a 3.5-point home underdog, and then going on the road to thrash 29.5-point underdog Purdue 35-0. The Fighting Illini have covered in three of their last four, most recently handling Michigan 21-7 as 3.5-point home underdogs last week. 

Illinois vs Oregon Odds

Matchup Page: Illinois vs Oregon, 3:30 pm ET

Odds as of October 21 from Caesars Sportsbooks

Illinois vs Oregon Picks – Week 9

After working through some early offensive line issues that let to some shaly performances—and ATS losses—and FCS Idaho and Boise State, the Ducks have been consistently good against a schedule rated 33rd nationally by Jeff Sagarin. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel is the most accurate passer in the nation, completing 77 percent of his attempts, and over the past six weeks only Ohio State has scored more than 14 points on the Ducks defense.

Illinois owns quality wins (and covers) over both Nebraska and Michigan, and also covered as a 19-point underdog in a 21-7 loss at Penn State. The Illini have been good defensively, outside of a head-scratching home effort against Purdue where they escaped 50-49 in overtime. But that game was an aberration; toss it out and Illinois is allowing just 13 points per game, and the performance at Penn State showed their defense can travel against a heavily-favored opponent. 

All of which should bode well for Illinois this weekend. Oregon has had four previous attempts this season to cover a spread larger than 20 points—they’ve succeeded just once, at Purdue last week. With a good secondary and a savvy, veteran quarterback, Illinois has the pieces to maintain their recent ATS success against a very big number. Now, win outright in Autzen Stadium? That’s another story.

Illinois vs Oregon Week 9 Pick: Illinois +21.5 (-112)

Not surprising for a Bret Bielema-coached team that prides itself on defense and ball control, Illinois has gone UNDER in four of six games against FBS opponents so far this season. Oregon has split its six FBS games against the total. Illinois will try to avoid getting into a shootout, while the Ducks’ offense grinds down opponents with its efficiency. It all makes the UNDER the natural play in Eugene.

Illinois vs Oregon Week 9 Pick: UNDER 54.5 (-110)

*picks made as of Monday, October 21 at 11:30 am ET

Illinois vs Oregon News

Illinois starting running back Kaden Feagin will miss the remainder of the season after undergoing surgery for a hip injury that had kept him out against the Wolverines. Meanwhile, Oregon starting tight end Terrance Ferguson missed the Purdue game due to surgery to remove his appendix. Ducks coach Dan Lanning that Ferguson would be back “relatively quick” but his status for Saturday remains uncertain. Oregon starting defensive lineman Jordan Burch is also uncertain for Illinois after missing last week with a knee injury. 

Illinois vs Oregon Prop Bet: Tez Johnson Anytime TD (-205)

Gabriel’s favorite target, Johnson leads the Ducks in both receiving yards and touchdowns. He’s reached the end zone in each of Oregon’s last four games, and seven times this season overall. Johnson should have more opportunities Saturday against an Illinois pass defense that’s allowed eight TDs this season through the air. 

Illinois vs Oregon Betting Trends