It’s a night game in LSU’s Death Valley, and the home team is an underdog? That’s the case this week when Ole Miss arrives as a 3-point favorite for Saturday’s contest in Baton Rouge. The Tigers are a home underdog for the first time since late in the 2022 season, when Alabama entered as a 13.5-point favorite—and left with a one-point loss.
The Rebels are coming off a convincing 27-3 victory at South Carolina, where they covered easily as 9.5-point road favorites to run their ATS mark to 4-1 against FBS opponents. LSU had last week off, and before that blew out South Alabama to record their first cover against an FBS opponent this season.
Ole Miss vs LSU Odds
Matchup Page: Ole Miss vs LSU, 7:30 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ole Miss Rebels | -3.0 (-112) | -155 | OVER 64 (-110) |
| LSU Tigers | +3.0 (-108) | +130 | UNDER 64 (-110) |
Odds as of October 8
Ole Miss vs LSU Picks – Week 7
Last year’s matchup between these old rivals was a memorable one: Ole Miss put up 706 yards of total offense and hung on for a 55-49 victory to cover as a 2.5-point home underdog. With the exception of running back Quinshon Judkins, now at Ohio State, most of the key Rebels players who engineered that attack will be back on the field Saturday night. The same can’t be said of LSU, which lost a raft of skill players to the NFL.
But the Tigers have hardly stalled out. Garrett Nussmeier, the successor to Heisman winner Jayden Daniels, enters this week as the second-leading passer in the SEC—right behind Jaxon Dart of Ole Miss. Malik Nabers and Brian Johnson Jr. are gone, but LSU still has elite pass-catchers in Kyren Lacy and Mason Taylor—though Tre Harris of Ole Miss leads the SEC in receptions and receiving yards per game.
Harris left the South Carolina game with an injury, clouding his status for Saturday, but you get the picture—whatever LSU does, Ole Miss does a little better. That’s particularly true on defense, where Ole Miss is allowing an average of 7.5 points per game, and LSU is allowing 21.6. While both teams have been inconsistent (Ole Miss losing to Kentucky, LSU barely escaping South Carolina), their respective bodies of work paint a fairly clear picture. Even in Death Valley at night, the Rebels are the natural play.
Ole Miss vs LSU Week 7 Pick: Ole Miss -3 (-112)
Ole Miss is all about a high-flying offense, right? Maybe, but the Rebels’ defense has so dominated this season that Lane Kiffin’s team has gone UNDER in every game against an FBS opponent so far this season. Even LSU has gone UNDER in three of four against FBS competition. It may seem counterintuitive given last year’s 104 combined points, but those trends speak for themselves.
Ole Miss vs LSU Week 7 Pick: UNDER 64 (-110)
*picks made as of Tuesday, October 8 at 10:30 am ET
Ole Miss vs LSU News
The big injury question surrounds the status of Harris, who left the South Carolina game with a leg injury. When Kiffin spoke to reporters Monday, he said Harris was still being held out of practice, making his status for Saturday uncertain. LSU, meanwhile, appeared hopeful that three injured starters would return to the field against Ole Miss. Tigers coach Brian Kelly told reporters in Baton Rouge that running back Caden Durham (foot), receiver C.J. Daniels (knee) and cornerback Zy Alexander (concussion) would all return to practice.
Ole Miss vs LSU Prop Bet: Garrett Nussmeier OVER 286.5 passing yards (-115)
Out of 16 SEC teams, LSU ranks 15th in rushing offense—which puts a lot of pressure on Nussmeier to make plays. He’s typically delivered, going over the 300-yard mark in passing in four of his five starts so far this season. And with Ole Miss allowing just 63 rush yards per game, the onus will be on the Tigers quarterback again Saturday.
Ole Miss vs LSU Betting Trends
- Ole Miss is 8-2-2 ATS as a road favorite in five seasons under Kiffin
- LSU is 2-1 ATS as a home underdog in three seasons under Kelly
- Ole Miss has gone UNDER in 12 of 20 road games under Kiffin
